We cannot wait that long. If we do we get $9 million in dead 2014 cap. One more year of Revis is NOT worth that. Why do people not see this? The odds of us signing him long term are close to zero. We must move on. Soon.
Revis is going to leave a mark on the cap no matter what happens. If the Jets wait until after June 1st to deal him they'll manage the 2014 cap hit. If they take the extra hit on the 2013 cap it's going to be very painful to manage. One of the arguments for taking a significant amount of the compensation in a Revis trade in 2014 value is that the cap doesn't get hit really hard this year as a result of the deal. Add the 13 to this year's cap along with Revis exit hit and the Jets are skating very close to the margin.
i understand what you mean regarding 2014 dead money. But why are the odds of us signing him long term close to zero? If we sign him long term, and his knee proves healthy and level of play the same, we are in a great position. Can either just retain him at that point if comfortable with the price, or talk trade again with a much more levaraged position to maximize return value. Questions about knee and contract would be gone at that point, making it a much more straight up trade if they really want to move him. I think they need to trade or re-sign him by Aug..and either is possible.
I was just making a darksider comment for fun. Yeah, I think most of the noise is really about the media cycle and the fact that there isn't much to report on right now since it's the super slow NFL period between the combine and the draft.
I think a good amount depends on where Grimes ends up. As much as I'd like to keep Revis you want the best deal possible and we lose a ton of leverage if he ends up in Tampa.
Just because someone buys some ground beef doesn't mean they aren't still interested in the filet mignon.
I think second contracts are going to take a big hit as a result of the CBA. I think only stars are going to be happy with what the teams bring to them at this point. I think average players are going to be put in economic competition with newly cheap early draft choices and they're going to suffer a lot in the process. The people on the star/good dividing line may still have some opportunities, as Mike Wallace showed, but the guys who aren't stars are going to find a lot less opportunity at home and a free agent market that is very hit or miss. Cliff Avril is a 27 year old former 3rd round pick who has 39.5 sacks in a 5 year career with 20.5 the last couple of seasons. He got $13-15M (various reports) on a 2 year deal with the Seahawks. In 2008 he'd have gotten a 5 year $40M deal minimum. At the end of that deal Avril is going to be 29 and unless he's a star the market will be worse for him next time. No star, no big money deals.
Honestly, you couldn't be more wrong. They personally don't even like Revis, they badly want to trade him.
My post quoted a post that said in effect the Jets will be more likely to win without Revis than with him. I don't think that is true, and it certainly is highly unlikely that the value in terms of talent on the field that hte Jets would get in compensation as picks will be BETTER than Revis. It is in fact unlikely to even be as much talent as Revis has. And ftr at this point i just ignore those who make a bad rhetorical attempt to say that building around a Cb is not the way the last several SB winners have been built. There are many ways to win a championship, but even if there were not, those kinds of posts show a basic ignorance of the reality here. The reality here is that getting rid of Revis does not bring the Jets a franchise Qb. I don't even think keeping him prevents us from getting and keeping one, since the Jets will be out of cap hell next year, and are not going to get a franchise Qb this year. If the Jets trade Revis, they will still be without a franchise Qb. That is my point.
The Jets have some leverage here, to be sure. Unless Revis cuts a deal with the Jets, or is traded to a team that he agrees to a new deal with, he is currently signed up to play 13 at a below market contract rate. That is not a tremendous amount of leverage, but it is not an absence of any leverage, either. He also risks injury without the protections that can be put into a long term deal, if the parties agree to them. Yes, the Jets have some leverage. Not no leverage. The Jets and Revis should agree on an extension at less than $13 mil a year, or thereabouts. that is the answer here.
The reality is 2 high first round picks next year might well get the Jets a franchise QB. That's why they shouldn't be overly concerned about a first this year if they can get one next year to use to move up with their own 1st.
MIght is a difficult word, as in the Jets might get a franchise Qb next year anyway, and as in they migth use those two picks to get the next Mark Sanchez, too. I am a big believer in a bird in the hand, and if Woody doesn't like that one, how about the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know? Might. Yeah, key word there. I should also add that with Landry, Bell and even E Smith gone, add Revis to that departure list and the pass D is going to suck for quite some time without a huge talent infusion in the secondary. And not another Kyle Wilson, either. Yeah, a bird in the hand. I believe in that concept. For Woody, he's apparently got himself believing his team is incapable of dealing with Revis on a reasonable basis. But I don't assume as many do here that the problems are all on Revis's side. So, there should be a way to reach a deal. If I knew that Revis's agents refuse to deal reasonably with the Jets, well, that would be different. But I don't konw that.
I agree in principle that there is no guarantee that the Jets are going to get value back in return for Revis. That doesn't change the fact that Revis is a bad value. The bird in the hand is a bad value and while I don't share the boards general view that we will get value back when all is said and done, that doesn't mean this management group shouldn't try to do it. This team right now needs to be reconfigured. If they can do it with or without Revis they have to try. Optimally getting Revis at some kind of reasonable over-value that we can live with would be better than unloading him for future value. That might not be possible, while Revis was a great talent nobody knows if he still is one. What we do know is he wants to be paid as if he is the greatest defensive talent in the NFL.
Whether reality or not, the perception is that the Jets don't want Revis back and aren't going to re-sign him. To gain the type of leverage you're speaking of, they need to just cut off the negotiations and mend the fences with Revis. At least give the impression that keeping him is a possibility. Reportedly, the Bucs were willing to give up a 2014 first and the Jets weren't interested. That clears away some of the "keep him" leverage since keeping him just sets the team up to trade him for a 2014 pick. If they were okay with that, they'd be moving on it with Tampa. Plus, there's no reason for Revis to push his return from injury for the Jets if he's a lameduck player.
Well, we agree that most here are incorrect that the Jets are likely to get good value for Revis. I don't think he is bad value, though. Not to appeal to authority, but I don't think Rex thinks that, either. I don't want to say the two high picks idea is not intriguing, ftr. But the jets already have one of those picks. so the real question is how much increase in value does one additional first round pick give the Jets? The answer to that is partly based on where it is, to be sure. Which, for a 14 pick, we don't know at this point. Not to digress but one of things about all this that helps draw so much attention is that it is a bit of a puzzle, to be sure. On one hand, the desire to put picks together in 14, with the expectation there will be more quality at Qb then than this year, leads to a strategy of doing that next year, but it also adds a significant degree of uncertainty. In short it is a gamble, and whether Idzy can change the Jets' poor record of gambling is at best an open question. this being the Jets, it's not a question that I have a confident and good answer to.
I think I pretty much disagree with everything in your post, other than that I also have heard that report. But then I don't know it is true, either. And one other thing, that regarding the perception. I would agree that the general perception might be there, that they do not want him back. Whethre that is true is not clear, but let's assume it is. If true, it may have still been based on the notion they could get more value for him than any other team has yet to offer. Woody may hate Revis's guts, for all we know, but that doesn't mean after hearing out his football people that even a clown like Woody wants to give up Revis for peanuts. As always, I find these kinds of discussions rather difficult, meaning when it comes to figuring out what Woody might be thinking or is preparing to do. But putting that aside, we don't really know what "wanting to get rid of him" means unless we know under what circumstances they will not want to get rid of him. Add in the possiblity this is all a sort of game to show Revis he does not have as much market value as he thinks, and, well...
There's a huge reason for Revis to play very effectively this season. Whether you think he's worth "best defensive player" money or not he clearly won't get that off of a subpar season. I've seen some people suggest that Revis might effectively withhold his services early in the year and only start playing all out as the trade deadline approached. That's not going to happen. There's too much risk involved for Revis in that scenario. If he wants the really big contract in 2014 he has to play like he's worth it in 2013 or he's going to hit free agency as a soon-to-be 29 year old and those guys are at the mercy of the market these days.
