Jay nice job again,,,,weather guys are all over the place with amounts rite now,,,lol. Will now cast myself later,,,,ps Cman did you put the big boy away ?
I don't see a single model at this point putting down more than an inch or two in the city, on the island, or from central NJ downwards. NNJ, moving into upstate NY, as well as north to possibly central CT, that's another story.
MS..I will reread what I wrote but I never said nyc would get more than 2" of snow did I? Let me check..because if I did..that would be tough to do under these circumstances.
quick burst of snow is all I can see that I wrote. And there are models that put down snow for NYC. The Nam does..the jap does..there are several models that do but they overdo cold air and I wouldnt count on them. And yes..the another story is totally accurate as mentioned..some areas up there will get 6+
Its march brook and you have to respect that...see a quick hit for you also but the it will change to sleet around 7 to 9 pm. One thing for certain...the changeover from snow to sleet will be much faster than the changeover from sleet to rain. I think Madison could get1-3 before the change over to sleet...but that means you will still have bad roads. I think..if you have kids..the word of the day tomorrow will be at least...delayed opening. Again...going to have to watch that sleet line move north and then the rain line behind it.
short range models now showing the metro area not getting the quick burst..precip in Eastern PA are even lighter coming in..so the quick hit rush hour thing may be pushed back to late rush hour which is good news. Still has points north of I80 getting all snow until 10pm tonite but I dont think so. Sleet changeover will be fairly quick I think..within the first 2-3 hours for many.
Thanks Jay I already decided to work from home tomorrow and take care of the kids in case school has delayed opening etc.
Good move brook. Latest euro model shows 2-4 for nyc before the changeover. Not sure if temps will allow that to stick but its coming in mostly after dark now so they might get a few more than predicted. Ice will be a big problem and again...going to have to watch the radar to see where that sets up. NW NJ is a good bet right now..but farther south? Perhaps.
I didn't really mean my post as a disagreement to yours, more of an addition to it. I didn't see much NYC action on the NAM, besides, it always leans high on precip totals.
Precip really filling in right now...going to get heavy from around now until 10pm and still thinking it stays frozen from north jersey into ny state and most of conn for that period. Models dumped on the temps but are doing well with the changeover because im sleet and snow as are many. Its either sleet and snow or plain sleet for many right now. Again...not sure where the accums go with this because sleet just pounds the numbers down. Still think you have to get to central ny state to get the big numbers. Regardless...will be crappy driving west of NYC all night tonite and the only change I can see right now is an earlier ending to the storm than predicted...which would mean more frozen and less rain. Not much to add...whatever you see outside will only change if you are all snow...the sleet is going to last much longer.
Oh no MS..didnt take it that way at all. I just thought I put down a high amount for nyc. No prob..and if I do screw up...and I DO A LOT...no problem with that at all. You are dead right..the nam is very high with their numbers but actually did better than most last storm. The only model that continues to show more snow for NYC than all of them is the best model..the Euro shows .35 or 3-4". Cant see that happening for many reasons but just being NYC is good enough...tough with all of that concrete.
And the NAM yesterday showed a weird 3-6 running along I80 thru the heart of nyc..it was bizarre. It also showed 40-60" for Boston 2 storms ago...so.... Used to be a great model..I mean a great short range model. Many couldnt wait for it to get in range on bigger storms..it was like "lets wait to see if the NAM picks it up in range" and then it went down the shitter. I have asked many times what happened and never ever have received an answer that makes any sense.
Again..a great great link for north jersey and southern ny state. When you see bright yellows it means heavy sleet...very tough to get snow to get that bright yellow. Well I think its sleet..its heading over me in about 5 minutes. link: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...abel=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0
The radar isnt agreeing with the models and right now..if you just take the radar and nowcast? I would think this is going to get really bad for many tonite with the sleet/snow..but many are just going to get a flat out sleet storm. My roads are already covered with sleet and snow. Oh...and just because once a storm starts I like to look ahead..Sunday/Monday? It cant be...but another better chance for many to get a good snowstorm. I want to say that will be the end...think it will be.
If you scroll down lower CBG..you can see a map of the USA with a bunch of + signs..hit a few of those to see if it covers your area better. Those radars are very fine tooth combs...a bit out of the area and it looks like you might be getting nothing..but you are getting something..so mess around with that. There is one for Newark...philly...nyc...Conn..etc. And as you can see...that yellow line heading your way and entering my way is for real...heavy snow and mostly heavy heavy sleet right now..and I mean heavy sleet...wow.
I have seen really heavy snow many times in my life..but have never seen heavy sleet like whats coming down here. Its moving basically west to east and should enter the NYC area in about an hour. Holy crap. Went outside and hurts the face type sleet.
