That is a great point..although winds will be lighter than the coast..this is a very very wet snow that will fall..power outages are likely. And I do not have to tell you...get the snowblower out for a couple swipes and dont try to do it all at the end....heavy stuff my friend.
I got a pretty good layer of salt down so hopefully that helps. I'm ready for Saturn. Been waiting 2 years for this
Jay " down in jersey " you mean south jersey ? I guess we will have to see how this goes,,,,,,,stay on it Jay and I can't speak for anyone else but I find ALL this stuff very interesting so thanks and again keep it coming :beer: Ps Cman good luck
Tanx CBG. My ace in the hole is... I live on top of a hill and I'll be able to get down w/o much problem should the power go out for a substantial period. Getting back up that hill could be problematic as my subdivision is plowed privately. Either way, I'm ready for Saturn. I wonder what could have happened if they had named this storm: "Uranus" :lol: Edit": I'm done for the night but locals are calling for 8-10". That's up 4" from yesterday's estimate so the numbers seem to be getting higher down here as the storm approaches. I'll check back tomorrow with pics.
Yeah cman..at some point you have to go with gut when the models show no agreement and yes CBG..south jersey but now I do believe most of nj is going to over perform. This is the year of going with the gut right or wrong and I have to tell you..the one model that everyone laughs at...the NAM AGAIN is showing on and off heavy snow for NJ...AND WOW FOR THE JERSEY SHORE TOO. This is going to be a fun to watch how it unfolds but its not going to be a 1-3 or 2-4 event for many in NJ and Southern NY State. For a few it might where there are temp issues but for many its going to be a bit of a shocker. Could be wrong but from the beginning this has never made sense. Strong winds..given..beach erosion..given. None of those things will be fun to follow and hope our neighbors at the shore have no more damage...but from a snow stand point..this is going to be an interesting Wednesday night...Thursday..and even Friday perhaps. What would totally sell me is if the 1030 GFS budged towards the NAM. Its asking a lot. Lets see.
Yeah brooklyn is a tough call drew. I will say this, you have two shots to close school..and dont rule out Friday. I just do not know the timing when things will turn more sour than predicted..but they will. Thursday early early am could be a point where it gets bad in the morning..or you could be fighting rain/snow. Here is a real important lesson and something to watch for many closer to the coast. This is a very marginal storm when it comes to temps so what has to happen is this...and its easy to track by just looking at the window. We call know the higher the elevation, the colder it gets. So when the precip comes down harder...it forces the cold air to the surface. So what you will see...what MANY will see with this storm is that when the precip gets heavy...the rain will mix and turn to snow...and then when it lightens...the snow turns back to rain. So if this storm were to be not as strong..many would get flat out rain. Its the heavier precip that helps create its own cold air. Thats why you will see areas that down south near DC where a town could get 12-18 and 30 miles away where the precip is lighter they get 2. Its not always being closer to the coast that gives you less snow...and this storm will be the perfect example for that.
and another thing when it comes to watches and warnings being issued. In our area, to have a winter storm warning they need to believe you will get 6" or more in a 12 hour period or 8" or more over a 24 hour period. I think there will be some that get 8" of snow..but over a 36-48 hour period so they will never get a winter storm warning...just a snow advisory or winter advisory.
Did the storm move further north today? This morning I was targeted for 8-12 and now its 3-6 and the big area looks like it moved north.
the NAM plasters everyone pretty much..everyone..but it has little support...or I should say..its gained the support of a few short range models. Thats what we start to switch to tomorrow..the euro .... gfs..become usless right around now. There are many short range 12 to 24 hour models etc that we will follow tomorrow. Right now, if you took an in between for all the models, NNJ gets 4-8...but Im telling the potential is sooooo there. Im actually going to get some sleep tonite..lol..because tomorrow is going to be a real active late one for me. MURRELL...Im checking right now..give me a second.
Murrell, I would completely ignore any changes they made to your forecast..ignore. They are going by the GFS which is now being thrown out by many. You are in a real wild card position and you will hear them lower and up your amounts all day tomorrow. Lets see how this plays out until noon and then we can start to narrow it down...but I still think you get more than 3-6...Im pretty sure. Good night guys..nothing will change tonite....lets see what happens over night to our folks south of us..and breaking news...the transfer of the storm is now taking place over eastern NC/southern VA..so where it goes the next 8 hours will start to help us..although many of us could beat it in a race...VERY VERY SLOW MOVER.
I just watched the local guys,,,,they ALL say the same thing,,,,,,they worry about wind, erosion and possible power outages,,,,the thing I don't get is if it is going to snow here for 2 days or possibly more and I understand it is not going to do much during the day today but how is it that I will get ONLY 2 inches of snow ? I mean if it is going to snow for that long of a period and I am in a somewhat higher elevation where it is a little colder common sense says we here get more than 2 inches of snow ,,,,,,,,we will see how it plays out today on forward . Cman and Jay and the rest be safe and keep the updates coming,,,,,I will put on my " now casting " helmet and let you guys know what s doing outside my windows as well :beer:
Good Morning TGG! We have a Snowstorm here in York, PA.! Here's some pics from my front door after 2hrs: Mixing w/ Sleet east of the Susquehanna River into Lancaster and points east. Philly still looking to get 3-5". Out here, we're looking at 7-10". Storm seems to be hugging the coastline so you guys up north might have to wait until thursday to get hit as it appears to be all rain along the coast. I'm taking a snowday for the first time in 2 years! Will keep everyone posted as the day goes on. :beer:
good job cman.... looks like the meltdown is a starting over at the accu boards. jay whats the deal with these blocks? that high is doing her job better than the jets OL. would love to get a good 8 in dump to test out the new blower before spring. anything less than 6 and its shovel time.
lol..JIL...not only the high..but a ocean storm to the right is blocking...Greene would have rushed for 3000 with that blocking. That blocking will give some in VA over 3 feet of snow. Workiing a bit right now..will update in a bit. CMAN those points east of you should turn to snow in the next 6 hours as the storm SLOWLY moves east. Really happy for you bud...enjoy the day. You still have a decent amount to come.
and the bottom line is patience..how and when the precip makes it through all of this blocking is still not known. What is known is the models after its all said and done still say many in NJ will get more than whats forecasted. May not be conventional...but it will happen.
And now NWS is buying that and winter storm watches and warnings are south and east of me and cut off in Passaic County...lol. How fitting. You pay everyone but the chef. Ok..lets see what happens the next few hours..and go CMAN go.
