Here are Mark Sanchez's stat splits from ESPN: From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_offense#Theory Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense differs from traditional offense by emphasizing a short, horizontal passing attack to help stretch out the defense, thus opening up options for longer running plays and longer passes that can achieve greater gains. The West Coast Offense as implemented under Walsh features precisely run pass patterns by the receivers that make up about 65% to 80% of the offensive scheme. With the defense stretched out, the offense is then free to focus the remaining plays on longer throws of more than 14 yards and mid to long yard rushes. So how is Mark Sanchez when it comes to throwing short passes? (stats rounded to the nearest percentage point) Last year he was abysmal. He completed only 61% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is a Tebowesque number (Tebow was actually better in 2011). Sanchez wasn't good in the 1-10 yard category, completing 61% of his passes. In 2012, Sanchez couldn't get the gimmies. However if we look at 2011, we see him completing 72% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, and 63% of his passes between 1-10 yards. I think part of his problem in 2012, was the lack of a good pass catching RB. When Sanchez had Tomlinson in 2010 and 2011 he was at least completing 66-72% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. So when Hobbes brings up that Sanchez had a poor supporting cast last year, he is validated somewhat by the statistical difference in Sanchez's passes behind the line of scrimmage. The 1-10 yards splits however, are ugly every year. Sanchez completion percentage between 1-10 yards looks like this per year 60%, 59%, 63%, 61%. You may think these are good, but lets compare them to some free agent (and possible free agent) QBs: 2011 Matt Moore: Behind the line of scrimmage: 80% 1-10 yards: 68% 2012 Alex Smith: Behind the line of scrimmage: 85% 1-10 yards: 74% 2012 Carson Palmer: Behind the line of scrimmage: 80% 1-10 yards: 68% Compared to some other (mostly below average) QBs: 2012 Christian Ponderer: Behind the line of scrimmage: 80% 1-10 yards: 66% 2012 Blaine Gabbart: Behind the line of scrimmage: 77% 1-10 yards: 62% 2012 Matt Cassel: Behind the line of scrimmage: 68% 1-10 yards: 66% 2011 Tim Tebow Behind the line of scrimmage: 75% 1-10 yards: 57% I don't have any concrete point to make here, I thought these numbers were interesting to look at. If you are one of the few Sanchez supports left you can find comfort that he improved in the short passing game in 2011 from 2009 and 2010. If you want the Jets to cut him regardless of the cap ramifications, you can look at how inaccurate he's been compared to other QBs.
Here's the problem. Even in his "best" year, he was still pretty awful from 1-10 yards. 2013 would be no different IF he's the starter.
Just some points to consider when looking at Sanchez's short passing numbers. First who were his RB's to throw to? Greene and Powell. Greene is not a good pass catching RB. 2nd thing to consider when looking at 1-10 range is that Sanchez was w/o Keller for most of the year and had Cumberland instead. That's a huge drop off. Looking at some of the other QB's you listed. Matt Moore had Reggie Bush. Alex Smith had Frank Gore. Carson Palmer had Darren McFadden. Ponder had Adrian Peterson. Cassel had Jamaal Charles. The passing game isn't just one player.
Yup. The only good part was the trend was heading upward until 2012, and it's still better than his first two years. If he can magically get to like 66% he at least won't be at the bottom of the barrel. If its going to happen, it's going to have to be by improvement in his play, he won't have a better team around him than in 2010 or 2011, so it's going to be on him to improve and to do so in a new system.
Yup, I mentioned that. His numbers were better with Tomlinson in the backfield as a pass catcher. Bush might be a nice free agent to fill that gap, if we can afford him. Palmer was missing McFadden part of the time, but they had a fullback (Marcel Reece) who is a good pass catcher and picked up the slack if I recall correctly. EDIT: The problem with the 1-10 numbers is they've never been all that good even in years passed.
Losing Tomlinson was huge. Almost all Sanchez passes are thrown to2-3 yards behind or above his receiver requiring big adjustments by the receiver. Tomlinson is one of the few backs who is athletically gifted enough to catch Sanchez's errant passes. A good example is the NE playoff game 1st TD. Sanchez gunned a 4 yard pass to Tomlinson over his head. Most backs would never have gotten their hands up in time to catch it. At best they would have tipped it for an INT. Tomlinson made it look routine. Then look at last year and Powell and Greene simply could not turn and bend around to catch Sanchez's poor passes. This was the big reason Tomlinson was missed so much. Similar to why we missed Braylon so much. I see good and bad for Sanchez in a west coast offense. His footwork is terrible, his accuracy is terrible, he has no touch and he cannot throw to backs. Although it might require less thinking and decision making on his part which should be a big benefit for him. Sanchez is a much much better QB IMO when he trusts his first read. Just take 3 steps and throw. He breaks down when that read is not there and he becomes confused and panics. Shotty did a really good job with him in 09-11 attempting to limiting his exposure to making mistakes by making quick reads and 3 step drops and trying to limit his confusion. That is something he can do in the west coast offense as it relys so much on timing. It might be a good thing for him.
I think Joe McKnight can be a big time player in this system. He has the tools, can catch the ball out of the backfield and is similar to McCoy.
He's always had the tools but something is missing. He disappointed at USC and has been largely disappointing here. I do hope he can get it together though as he has a real opportunity to make an impact next year. I just am skeptical.
Good call posting some other QBs. I looked at those stats and thought they were really good, but in comparison to other QBs, Sanchez needs some work. Definitely vital we get a better pass catching RB than Greene. If Sanchez can find that touch on screens and swing passes, it improve his throws behind the line greatly. He seems to rifle those passes in the general area of the RB instead of letting them run into/after the ball.
Sanchez has been a disaster in short passing game all his career. The hope is that, Marty Mornhinweg can somehow fix that. If Marty can't fix him, then Nacho is a toasted nacho.
I actually don't much care for low completion percentage, the interceptions bother me much, MUCH more. Looking at the stats above, here is breakedown of Mark's short-yard passing game re INTs. 2009 0-20 yrds: 12; Total: 19 INTs 2010 0-20 yrds: 9; Total: 13 INTs 2011 0-20 yrds: 13; Total: 18 INTs 2012 0-20 yrds: 12; Total: 16 INTs Above translates into: 2009 --- 63% 2010 --- 69% 2011 --- 72% 2012 --- 75% of his INTs were thrown in short-yrd passing game that is so critical for WCO. Also note that this element of his game got worse over the years, even during his "stellar" 2010 season. Don't forget that these numbers do not include fumbles. What it amounts to is this: Sanchez is not suited for WCO.
i posted a much less in depth analysis of this at some point last year, thank you for making a great post about it. it is amazing just how inaccurate he is behind the line and up to 10 yards. its just scary. there are quite a few guys over 90% and the majority if i remember correctly are over 80% as they should be, these are gimme throws. i dont think there is any offense than can fix marks problems.
I wonder if the Jets didn't trust him because they had such an emphasis on power running, or if he really is unreliable / a fumble waiting to happen?
If that's what they saw in practice then I don't expect him to get much burn, even in the new offense.
Damn Sanchez hasnt completed a pass for 41 yards plus since 2010 ,what a bum. If he starts it wont matter what kind of offense we run if he still has no body to throw to(please dont say Hill,Edwards and Gates)
But but but he played in a WCO in college so he has to do well in it this year, despite the stats and film that go against that...
