The 9 Looks Good For The Jets

Just because you pass on taking a guard with your top 10 pick, it doesn't mean you have to turnaround and take a risky pick. This whole Warmack campaign baffles me. Wouldn't it make more sense to resign one of the starting guards and transition Ducasse rotating to starting? You would think the number 3 ranked o-line would demand trying to keep some continuity. It also frees us from having spend such a high draft pick on such a lower value position.

 

I dont really care what stats say, because that OL did not look like the 3rd best OL. Especially run blocking... (not that Greene could find a hole anyway, but thats besides the point). And pass blocking they werent the best either- I've never heard of a 3rd ranked OL that gave up 11 sack in a game.

Wouldnt you think that on the 3rd ranked OL, you would be constantly impressed with the movement and push they got? The domination of the trenches? That hardly occurred to me this season. The 49ers on the other hand constantly impressed me with the push they got up the middle and the protection they gave their QB... My eyes tell me they were a 12-16 ranked OL that is losing 2 gaurds to FA (one of whom is on the wrong side of 30 and is regressing).

Also, a risky pick in some people's eyes may not be in yours... Just to get your stance, how do you view Mingo, Jordan and Ansah as prospects? Do you think they are risky picks? High risk - high potential types?

Because Im pretty sure the consensus here is that many would be happy with a defensive player like Werner, Moore or Jones (assuming medically okay), and Warmack would come after them.

 

Dick Cimini says PFF. (So the fault is on Nacho.)

 

Yeah because fiddling with team statistics gives you individual unit ratings more accurate than watching every play by every player. "The eye test" is an old euphemism for bullshit like saying "everyone's entitled to their opinion" when referring to facts. When using team statistics it is IMPOSSIBLE (read: IMPOSSIBLE) to separate units. Even if there is consistent drastic inconsistency between rotating players in each unit with which to compare the others you get significant statistical noise. Unless you switch between Adrian Peterson and Shonn Greene you get useless statistics.

FO is good for team stats and team stats only. PFF does their own play by play on each individual player. If your belief contrasts with reality you don't just cherry pick data until you find something that you can accept: You accept that you're wrong.

Look at it this way: One analysis type can't recognize good play with a bad supporting cast. The other can.

Dick Cimini is a talentless hack who makes a living by creating controversy where there isn't instead of providing insight like he's supposed to. He should be writing for the sports page at the National Inquirer.

Unless they agree with you. This is pretty delusional. An outlying example over the total sum of the work? The fact that they were seventh against the pass with that game considered is strength to the argument of how good they were. So you wouldn't take a single player, unit, or team that didn't perform 100% consistently? There's no such thing.

There wasn't a single offensive line in football you'd be "constantly impressed with". The 49ers, the best OLine in football, is the only OLine you would accept? Well guess what buddy there are lots of units on the Jets that are a lot further from #1 than the OLine is. Drafting Warmack would be like drafting a CB after resigning Revis to another deal, it makes no sense regardless of value. And drafting Warmack after refusing to resign one of the two FA guards would be like drafting a CB to replace Revis.

For the millionth time this week, drafted players are not guarantees of anything and you pray that they become top 10 at their position by their third year. Not even touching the regression argument that never had a shred of evidence in its favor other than "lol he's old". Maybe your eyes can get a large readership since thy're so damn accurate?

Ask someone if they like picks that are popularly referred to as high risk-high reward to see if they'll take the bait into you criticizing them? Nice, no one sees that coming. Dion Jordan isn't exactly a high risk pick though. It's just that he and Mingo have no place on the Jets barring a drastic change of scheme that would wreck the current roster.

And of course everyone would be happy with Bjoern Werner or Moore. They're the consensus top DEs and, barring an absurd turn of events, would never be available at #9. And neither would a medically confirmed Jarvis Jones. Of course, Werner isn't the greatest run defender, but hey, who cares about that?

 

I admittedly do not know how they calculate the grades on offensive lineman. Maybe if I understood that better I'd be more willing to believe the #3 ranking.

 

Yeah I know. That was the point of my response above.

That said, I still think Jets have to with pass rusher at #9 if there is one. (And there will be one.)

 

Ok here's the honest breakdown:

The biggest weakness on this team is clearly lack of offensive skill position players (QB, RB, WR).

Regarding QB, we most likely will address it through FA as a short term fix. Long term we will hope to draft one of the prizes in the 2014 draft (Football and Bridgewater)

Regarding RB and WR, this is where we can use the draft to our advantage should our GM and his team do their homework.

Now regarding the OL, that is not the biggest weakness on our team. I'm sure there's plenty of quality OL we can take in the 2nd or 3rd round that could turn into starter quality. This one site has our line as the #3 rated line in football this past season. Not sure if that's entirely true or not but we can all agree that the Jets O Line is at least in the top half of the league and probably top 10.

However if you look at our skill positions we can all agree that the Jets are in the bottom 10 in the league and that's indisputable.

Now at the #9 pick we should take the biggest impact player available. That should be a DE/OLB because there are no top offensive skill guys rated that high this year. Moore, Jones, Werner or Jordan would all be good picks and they're all ready to be impact guys from Day 1. For those of you who question Jordan's lack of sacks, that's because he constantly faced double teams. You should focus more on his productivity. He was highly productive and All Pac 12 two straight years. I've watched the kid play more than a few times the last 2 years and he sticks out on the field with his playmaking ability.

We need instant impact guys via the draft for next year even in a rebuilding year. This can't be stressed enough. We also need guys who were highly productive in college and not projects based on potential. We need to stay away from those.

If we don't make any trades that include Revis and Cromartie, then we probably stay put with our picks. In rounds 2 and 3 we take RB and OL.

Hopefully it works out this way.

 

They say #3 OL, I say cupcake 2012 schedule.

Warmack would be a good, safe pick.

 

Bottom line is quality of play at the Oline position has dwindled league wide in recent years. Talent wise & statistically..Jets really do have a top 5 OL.

Yes we have some depth needs..but OL is even LESS of a difference making aspect in today's NFL than its ever been. Additionally..good guards in the mid rounds are a dime a dozen. When you compare the need to that of rush backer..which has been void for at least 5 years & has limited supply of elite prospects from year to year...I'm just not sure how you justify that Warmack pick.

I still believe deep down many want Warmack/Fisher solely b.c it's a low risk "Safe" pick. You don't take steps as a franchise by avoiding risk at all costs.

 

My issue is that we've picked defensive players in back to back years. Warmack would solidify our line for the next 5-7 years. The 49ers dominate the competition because they own the trenches week in and week out.

 

BPA, man... BPA. Reaching is a bad idea regardless of who you have picked in previous years.

 

Are you saying Warmack is a reach?

 

the last time a guard was taken in the top 10 i think was 1996. regardless of how talented he is at guard, its kind of a teach

 

Warmack, IMO, will almost certainly be the BPA at 9. On big boards, he is a top 2 or 3 prospect. That said, I would take a few OLBs over him.

 

i mean david decastro was top 5 on most big boards last year i feel like too. i'm not really against drafting chance, but i just don't think it makes the team that much better. someone said above people just want to draft him because he's basically a "100% safe pick." i'd just rather look for playmakers at 9 instead of a guard and in the past years the #9 pick has produced some really good players

 

So if we were picking 2 picks later, it's not a reach?

 

Best case in my opinion is we trade down and by the end of the 2nd round come away with an OLB, an OG, and either a WR,TE,or 2014 2nd round pick. RB/S should be addressed in rounds 3-5.

 

IMO this draft would benefit the Jets the most by trading our pick.. Stock up on a 2nds and 3rds.. that's where the talent is for in this draft.

This draft is perfect for us, we need OLB, HB, WR, TE, S, and OLine. Those are the positions that this draft is supposedly loaded on.

 

It takes two to tango. I'm pretty confident most of Jets nation wants to trade down (unless something crazy happens like Werner available). However, who wants to trade up? What player is going to sit there at #9 that makes playoff & playoff bubble teams think "This guys can push us to another level. It's worth us sacrificing multiple picks to get him."

Teams in the top 5 have a good chance of trading down. Not so sure about teams close to pick #10. My ideal trade down scenario is that no CB is drafted or Jarvis Jones is on the board. Both of these situations are the most likely reasons for those late teams to be aggressive & switch with the Jets.