Looking into Kiper's crystal ball February, 13, 2013 Feb 132:18PM ETBy Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com Recommend0Tweet3Comments2EmailPrintThe Jets have picked a defensive player with their last three first-round draft choices. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper suspects they'll do it again this year with the ninth overall pick. "I still think the front seven on the defensive side is the way to go," Kiper said Wednesday on a media conference call. [+] Enlarge Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports Barkevious MingoObvious follow-up question: The Jets had one of the worst offenses last season, so why would they draft defense? The reason is, the draft is top-heavy with defensive linemen and linebackers, with no offensive skill players worthy of a top-10 pick, according to many pundits. Kiper, who believes the Jets have "so many needs," identified three possibilities for the Jets at nine -- Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan, LSU DE Barkevious Mingo and Georgia LB Alec Ogletree. "(Jordan) could be the ideal edge rusher as a 3-4 outside linebacker," Kiper said. "He can be a combo guy; you can use him up and down. He had a great finish two years ago, when he had six sacks late in the year. He wasn’t as dominant this year, but he was the guy you had to identify and handle. But he has enormous upside and potential." Kiper said Mingo is in a "similar category" as Jordan because his production tailed off last season, adding, "He didn't play as dominant football this year as he did last year, but he's got an awful lot of ability." Kiper called Ogletree a versatile playmaker whose stock is rising. "It’s going to be hard to pass one of those linebacker-types up," he said. Here's the issue: All three players are questionable scheme fits for the Jets. In his 3-4 scheme, Rex Ryan prefers the defensive ends to be 290-plus pounds and he likes his outside linebackers in the 255-to-265 range. At 6-foot-6, 243 pounds, Jordan is built like a basketball player. Mingo is 6-foot-4, 240 pounds and Ogletree is 6-foot-3, 234 pounds. The Jets also are in the market for a quarterback. No quarterback is worthy of the ninth pick, according to Kiper and many draft experts. Kiper mentioned three late-round possibilities for the Jets -- Zak Dysert (Miami, Ohio), Sean Renfree (Duke) and Brad Sorensen (Southern Utah). Cimini's right. Jordan, Mingo and Jones don't fit the scheme. None would be able to "set the edge". Werner, Moore and Ansah have the size that Rex looks for in an OLB.
Kiper has the Jets taking one of the great physical tools low production reaches because the Jets have made a lot of questionable picks up high in the draft over the last decade plus. The franchise has a reputation at this point for not honoring the value in their high picks all that well. So if you have a guy like Barkevious Mingo who looks like he has great tools but hasn't been able to put it all together in college the Jets are one of the franchises that might bite on that kind of prospect.
Cimini's right. Jordan, Mingo and Jones don't fit the scheme. None would be able to "set the edge". Werner, Moore and Ansah have the size that Rex looks for in an OLB.[/QUOTE] Cimini, nor Kiper mentioned Jones. They named his teammate Ogletree. Not interested in either Werner or Ansah. While both are productive players, both were 4-3 DE's and never played OLB or covered a TE. I'm tired of projects. Give me Jones and I will throw a celebration!!! I'll settle for Jordan or Ogletree.
This is the point I have been arguing since I first brought up Ansah in October. Pace and Thomas are both 265 and both converted 43 ends. Smaller, faster guys may loook like a great fit but as of Yet Rex has not used one as an everydown player. Speedier guys Like Maybin and Sapp have barely sniffed playing time and never on rushing downs. Rex wants big bodies that can set the edge and play with thier hand in the dirt in his 4 man fronts.
So the fact that Jordan is about 10 lbs lighter than Ryans supposed preference we wont choose select him, smh yea that makes all the sense in the world.
If you look at the good starting OLBs in the 3-4 across the league, they're all 255-260. That's not to say you can't be good at 240-245, but the precedent of success is not there. Of course, with an NFL weight training program I think a lot of these guys could pack on ten pounds, especially Jones who is not known to be a workout guy. Mingo has already bulked up to 245 from 230. Should be an interesting combine.
The Jets may not be in a 3-4 much longer. It's clear that Rex has been trying to get a 46 front going over the last couple of seasons. He's also been going with a 2-3-6 and a 3-2-6 a lot. I think that maybe where he's headed at this point is a 46 with only 6 big bodies in it, using a 3rd safety in place of one of the big bodies, maybe in the LB cluster on the strong side of the formation.
Jordan is about 20 pounds lighter than Pace or Thomas. He is also two inches toaller. Watch him play, don't jsut go off stats though. He is an athletic freak, but not a stout run defender at all. I find him to be a very interesting OLB prospect becasue of his coverage ability for a man his size, but he is not a top tier edge player in both the run and pass rush.
If that's the case, we are really counting on one of those "we waited too late to select a safety" safeties next year. James Ihedigbo went and got his ring while Eric Smith rotted here. Thankfully it wasn't with the Pats.
Rex is not married to his scheme at least as it relates to what base front he uses. Rex lets the personnel dictate tat. In training camp last year he let be known that we would use a lot more 4 man fronts to maximize the young talent we now had on the d-line thanks to having acquired Wilkerson and likely losing 3 out of 4 of our starting linebackers he might just officially switch to a base 4-3. In a 4-3 Jones would be the strong side OLB with Harris and Davis manning the Mike and weak side respectively. On obvious passing downs he you can line him up at the line and move Coples inside. The only positions in Rex's defense that requires drafting scheme specific players would probably the starting CBs, they have to be able to bump and run since he like to blitz so much.
Thomas and Pace were on already on the roster when Rex was hired. I don't see how they reflect the body types Rex prefers. In fact, the one outside linebacker Rex did draft Davis is barely 240. And Cimini gets paid for this...SMH
Coples is usually over the guard at 2/3/4. Find me a play where he lines up outside the 5 and you'll get a cookie. He's a 3tech. For the love of crap he's a 3-tech defensive TACKLE and I don't care how badly he was misused his senior year by a college coach who didn't know him or how to use him, he's always been a 3-tech and will continue to be a 3-tech. He is not in any way, shape, or form a 4-3 LDE or a 3-4 OLB. The furthest outside he goes is the five and even that reduces his effectiveness. David Harris is a SLB in the 4-3 unless you're running an absurd old Illinois-type scheme where the MLB is shooting A gaps all day. Harris can cover running backs out of the backfield, but not TEs off the line. 3-4 OLBs never cover any TE who doesn't have lead feet unless the TE runs into a hook/curl or flat zone they're responsible for, it is a heavy blitz, they have help, or are a special covering talent (like Jordan). 3-4 ILBs have primary coverage responsibility, not the OLBs. If you really, seriously, want to get caught up in wording as a basis for arguments, in half the defensive playbooks out there they're listed as DEs with the "3-4 DE"s listed as DTs anyway. He's 6'7" and 240. There's a significant difference between 6'4" 240 and 6'7" 240. You'd call a 6'1" 240 LB a thumper and a 6'4" 240 LB balanced. 6'7" 240? Lanky. Numbers aren't everything, though, and a big part of it is how 'big' someone plays and Jordan does not play big. Not at all. If he did, he would be an entirely different story and would overtake Werner as the top DE with ease. His move for getting off blocks is judo throwing the blocker to the guy behind him and sliding himself a yard to the side in the process. He's not the main rusher for an NFL defense. That doesn't mean he's bad, it just means he plays a different position and a different role on the defense. In short Dion Jordan is the 'other guy'. A coverage linebacker who is great in pursuit from the backside and can catch someone off guard with his speed on a rush. Think Shaun Phillips with elite cover ability. He can produce 7-8 sacks a year as long as there's a decent rusher on the other side. He'll be a good contributor; just not that star rush linebacker. Don't get me wrong, you can have a great defense with an above average rusher and an elite 'other guy' - Cleveland will probably draft Jordan to be across from Sheard in that exact setup - but you can scheme coverage with smaller zones or shifting zones to make up for coverage deficiencies. Scheming an outside pass rush only really works by overloading and can only be done so many times a game without being watched and compensated for. (inside rush is another beast entirely and is manufactured by scheme easily, but with certain repercussions for run defense and coverages)
Rex might fall in love with Bjoern Werner during the draft process and with his stock fluctuating right now he may be there at our pick. Werner would be his Suggs type DE/OLB and he'll go from there. Brandon Jenkins could also be a double dip option for us depending on how the board looks. If we draft 2 OLB I wont be mad, hell I'd be ecstatic if we got Werner and Jenkins.
How ecstatic would you remain if the Jets had a 27th ranked offense next season? I agree the Jets need to take the BPA and it looks like a pass-rusher might be that on the 9 but the Jets really need help on the other side of the ball. A defense heavy draft this year would basically doom the team to a flat season next year with the fans outraged that they were watching a boring under-achieving offense for the second year in a row.
I would be beyond pissed if went defensive heavy... Again. This offense is near the bottom in terms of talent and playmakers and they arent going ANYWHERE unless they improve. I dont care who we have playing at OLB, if the offense doesnt improve drastically this team is still going to be bad. Give me a draft with all offensive players and I would be very happy. Rex can make due with lack of talent on that side and remain a top 10 defense. The same can not be said for the offense.
Don't forget a good system can make below-average players look like average, average players look good, and good player great ... regardless we still need talent offensively. I wouldn't mind spending the majority of the picks on offense I agree. I hope MM's system works out
Thats mostly true if you have a franchise QB. We dont have a franchise QB that is going to mask a lack of talent around him along with the system (a la Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, ect). In our case we need the offensive talent to mask the QB play, hopefully developing a new franchise QB this year or next year.
