Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Lol...wow. Im not big on dressing up my sig or anything but one time...during the free agency signing..I came on here and just asked..just asked...did the Jets resign Braylon Edwards? And was told no.

    So, I put ESPN back on and there it is again...Jets sign B.E. the year he fled after coming here that one year. And a few posters jumped down my throat and one said to get my fact straight...real attitude.

    Well, I dont like calling people out unless provoked...soooo.. i took a picture of it and then put up the link.

    The poster that accused me of lying of course, disappeared and couldn't even say he was sorry. ESPN made a mistake..no big deal..but there it was.

    Never removed it...I guess its time to do so.

    Ok..nothing really going on other tonite, freezing rain might be a problem for the first part of the morning so get a head start.

    Again the VD storm looks south, but the weekend storm has been pushed back to Sunday/Monday and still has major potential.
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Im happy pointed that out CBG..forgot I had that imaging thing. Instead of posting links for future storms..I will post the images..always to lazy.
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Have been lucky all my life..never had the Airport nightmare other than normal delays.

    Sorry SJ..and man its good to see you around here.
     
  4. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    I'm sore from all the shoveling yesterday.


    by the way, I just saw this:

    http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...wstorm-delays-bryant-sacred-heart-game-again/

    Blizzard conditions in the Northeast have dumped as much as three feet of snow in some areas and college basketball is not immune to the damage.

    The Bryant-Sacred Heart in Smithfield, R.I., an area that saw between 20 and 30 inches of snow over the course of the weekend, has been postponed for the third time, now scheduled for Monday at 7 p.m. ET. The two teams had been scheduled to play as part of a doubleheader with the women’s teams at 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. ET Sunday, but Sacred Heart reportedly ran into problems with its bus company, according to the Providence Journal.
     
  5. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Now that's a look I can relate too. Put a 60" screen in the dungeon and a nice comfy rack to stretch out on for the game and I'm there! :)
     
  6. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Be careful outside all it looks downrite nasty out there,,,I have a coating of snow / ice on my deck and can't wait to see the roads :sad:

    Jay ,,,,,here we go,,,,,local guy says snow " potential " Wednesday,,,,,and more snow possibly Saturday,,,,I know you are on top of this stuff , so let us know what the farmers almanac / Jaywayne thinks. :up:
     
  7. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    well that was a major snow storm up here in smithtown/st james area of LI.

    checked in at 29.7" in the backyard.

    snowed from 1:30 pm friday to 5:30 am saturday.

    held power so that was good.

    ready for the next one.
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol...used to love the farmers almanac when I was a kid. Damn thing hit a few times.

    Just checking out models now. I was off the board on VD storm but a few models showed it coming north. That to me looks like a 3-6 max storm but Im really interested in this weekend storm. If the Euro shows anything close to what was put out by 4 other models...huge. Let me check it out.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    All the models have something big for this weekend except the Euro model which is the best model so its a big who knows. Will see if it picks up anything in the next 24 hours.
     
  10. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Hey Jay

    A nice shot glass with your name(Jay) on it is ready to be shipped as soon as you provide an address. :)

    And please keep us posted about the weekend stuff. I heard News 12 NJ guy mentioning something about the weekend on the TV but he was cautious. My brother is flying on Saturday 5 PM out of Newark. I hope his flight doesn't get cancelled because he has a very important meeting to catch next Monday.
     
  11. asbcheeks

    asbcheeks Member

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    Hi Jay - long time, first time. Chalk me up as another one who references his "weather guy" when talking with friends, family and colleagues.

    Anyway, wondering if you have an idea yet on what the timing might be for this weekend storm? I ask because I'm flying down to St John to get married. My fiancee and I are flying down on Friday so unless the VD event ramps up we don't expect to have any issues. But most of our guests are flying down on Saturday and some on Sunday. Beginning to get a little concerned that they may face some issues depending on when and how big this thing hits.

    Thanks very much in advance for any info and keep up the great work.
     
  12. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    today I pulled into a driveway to turn around, and got stuck. Couldn't get back out. Luckily I had a shovel in my trunk.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey thanks a lot...really appreciate it. Man...congrats!!! Those islands are my favorites. Been a big fan of St. Croix. Used to go down there during my single party days with friends and have great memories of hoping on a small plane and visiting St. John and St. Thomas.

    Heres is the deal...of course Friday you should have no problems at all. But I just was checking out the models and I would be a bit concerned for any Saturday/Sunday flights..but THERE ARE HUGE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS STORM.

    Wanted to bold that because there are 10 or more models that I like to look at and 7 or 8 have a huge storm...there is even a few that have a triple phase storm.

    But the big catch is the EURO model..the model that nailed Sandy..and nailed this past weekend storm..not showing anything but a storm harmlessly going out to sea.

    But an even bigger catch is that the Euro had the VD storm going out to sea too...and now is agreeing with the other models that a smaller storm will hit around VD.

    Does the Euro model start to agree with the other models? I think it might..only because that has been a trend this winter too. As good as the model is, its been struggling too.

    Perfect scenario would be for all of your guests to somehow either change to Friday or move up their flights to Saturday before noon.

    With that said, this storm may not kick in until late Saturday night..and that will probably be the thing that saves you.

    Let me check on the exact timing and stuff and get back to you in about an hour.
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Brook...As I mentioned a bunch of times..not necessary at all..but I will send you the address..but really...I appreciate that it helped you if it did..but I enjoy just helping out of I can

    See the post I put above to our friend getting married in the Virgin Islands for the update.. will have much more info in about an hour.
     
  15. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay let me help you out , I mean after all you have been very helpful to the rest of us so it is the least I can do,,,,,,you have your "models" and your "trends" and your "phasing" but I have something better ,in fact it has almost a perfect record and is batting almost a thousand--------> my inlaws arrive Saturday morning from sunny SOUTH Florida,,,,,whenever they come IT SNOWS! they are better than the groundhog or any farmers almanac,,,and unlike the models they never waver---it will snow Saturday OR Sunday OR BOTH !

    Let us know what the updates are but rest assured,,,snow is coming :lol:
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    ha!..then lock it in for Saturday..and yeah... I would consider that a "trend" lol..still checking the models. Be back in a bit
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Quick update on tonites models.

    The VD storm continues to look like a 3-6 storm MAX. I think its generous.

    The weekend storm is a weird one because all of the talk you are hearing about in the local media is not based on what the models are portraying but more of the setup which is out there which SOMETIMES leads to very big storms.

    Yet, for the most part, the models keep saying..the hell with the setup....and either paint a weaker storm or out to sea.

    So to come here and say huge storm would be on what models are not saying. Big question is do the models finally recognize the setup and say yes.

    That would be a 50 50 at this point. If the Euro tonite or tomorrow starts to pick up on it..that would help of course. So lets keep watching it and see if it does so.

    The good news for snow haters and bad news for snow lovers is that we are running out of time because the models are all showing a nice warm up for the end of Feb and beginning of March...early spring? Perhaps.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Just looked at the Canadian Model and NOGAPS, Navy model and they do both show a blizzard for this weekend from DC to Maine.

    At this point..take it with a grain of salt because both models are eh. I will say this, the Navy model is having a pretty good winter and the reason I post this.
     
  19. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay how often does the euro. Model run ? And when is the next one ?
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Great question:

    Euro runs at 1am and 1pm. The model only shows 24 hour increminents on the free site so you kind have to guess or put together the pieces of the puzzle in between...its not very hard USUALLY.

    The GFS..Ameircan model runs at 1030 am and pm..but also runs in between at 430 am and pm but the 430 runs are not run with very good up to date info...but can show a trend. The British, Candadian...nogaps..are all spread out usually about an hour before the Euro.

    So..the times we should always monitor are pretty simple:

    930 am is the up to date Nam(short range american model)
    1030 AM GFS (up to date)
    1PM EURO
    330pm Nam (info input not up to date)
    430 pm GFS (info input not up to date)
    930 pm NAM (up to date)
    1030 pm GFS (up to date)
    1200am (british, Canadian etc)
    100 am EURO

    Not to bore everyone but not up to date means models just dont make this shit up..lol...models are as good as the input thats provided.

    Men or Women input where everything is...Where is the storm right now? Off the coast of California...Where is the high pressure? Over Alberta Canada...where is this front..where is that front etc...and then they press PLAY. The models digest everything and then tell you what should happen.

    Hope that makes sense.
     

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