I've been looking at the draft again, kind of lamenting the lack of QB's. Along the way I realized that the Jets are in a pretty good position at this point. Other than QB there are a lot of good prospects in the areas the Jets need. So many in fact that the Jets biggest problem is going to be weeding out the guys who are risky prospects from the guys with solid chances to become a star. The Jets biggest needs at the moment : QB - There's nobody on the roster right now who looks capable of being the starter moving forward. OG - Both starters from last year are free agents and the third guy is a huge question mark. OLB/DE - The Jets haven't had a solid two-way OLB since Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas began to decline after 2010. The franchise has never had a double-digit sacker at OLB. The Jets have nobody capable of providing pressure on the right side of their 4-3/46. Edit: Mo Lewis got to 10 sacks in 2000 and I'm pretty sure he was still outside in the Jets 3-4. WR - The Jets lack of playmakers outside is well documented. Santonio Holmes made plays for the Jets in 2010 when he had help opposite him but has been a small possession receiver since he was thrust into the #1 role. OT - Austin Howard is a free agent and there's nobody else on the roster ready to take his spot if he leaves. S - Both starters are free agents and it is going to be hard to keep LaRon Landry in an open market. Yeremiah Bell is ancient. TE - Dustin Keller and Jeff Cumberland are both free agents and neither of them is a two-way player that gives the Jets a difference maker inside. RB - Bilal Powell can probably handle the load in a pinch but if he goes down the Jets are in trouble. Joe McKnight is probably an acceptable 3rd Down Back in Marty Mornhingweg's WCO. That's a lot of holes to fill and they're the main reason the Jets look to be down for the next year or two. Looking at the talent early in the draft what do we see? A bunch of OLB/DE's who look to be impact players at the next level in Damontre Moore, Jarvis Jones and Bjoern Werner. A bunch of OT's and OG's in Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson and Chance Warmack. A big playmaking WR who has worked in a WCO in Keenan Allen. A safety from a program that has produced several blue-chip NFL safeties over the last seven years in Kenny Vaccaro. Even the possibility of taking a QB if the Jets can identify somebody that they think they can develop into a star from Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and Matt Barkley. So the table is set for the Jets to get somebody good at a position of impact on the 9. The draft is so deep in some of the areas that they are going to be looking for help that a trade down will still likely get them a guy they like and need. If the Jets trade down into the bottom of the 1st round to get extra picks or future picks they open up TE and QB in a big way and potentially also RB with people like Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert, Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard entering the conversation. The QB's all begin to look more enticing at the bottom of the 1st with another 2nd round pick or a future 1st added on to the pick in the trade down. It's a good situation for a change. it's like the polar opposite of the hole the Jets were in on the 6 in 2008 where they had to take Gholston even with all the downside pressure that developed around him in the run up to the draft.
I agree with most of this, but I think the early depth in specific positions makes it unlikely that we will be able to trade down if we want to.
We'll know a lot more in a couple weeks after the combine. For now we're left hoping teams in front of us overrate the QB's or become sold on guys like Ansah pushing more solid prospects down.
There are definitely some options at 9... It seems that the Jets are pretty high on Austin Howard though, so I expect him to be retained as the starting RT and thus a guy like Eric Fisher would probably not be on the radar at 11, especially given the many other greater needs. I'd also be surprised if they took a QB at 9. Personally, I'm not too sold on any QB being worth that high of a pick in this draft. If Geno fell to #9, he might give the Jets some second thoughts, however. Kenny Vaccarro might also be available, but is he really worth that high of a pick for this team? I guess it remains to be see how the team feels about Josh Bush and Antonio Allen or if Yeremiah Bell gets resigned. I've been thinking about Kyle Wilson possibly moving to FS and resigning Bell for 1M or less. For me, a pass-rushing OLB might be the way to go as there should be a couple guys worth that spot... Chance Warmack should also be an option. Also, I would not be opposed to a WCO guy like Keenan Allen. This offense needs playmakers and it'd be hard for to argue with drafting one in the first round, especially if they trade down. I think a trade down is ideal if possible. This team needs young players and to build through the draft now more than ever. Certainly a lot of ways to go
I'm thinking the Jets should position themselves as if Geno Smith is the guy if he's there on the 9. That puts a lot of pressure on teams that might be looking at him to trade up in front of the Jets for him. A trade-up by somebody to get Smith probably pushes one of the pass rushers or tackles down to the Jets on the 9. It might even get somebody to approach the Jets about trading for the pick.
I would trade down if it's a possibility, especially if someone wants Geno Smith or Mike Glennon. I think the right tackle position is good for now. Austin Howard besides the Chargers game played well enough to start again next season. I still like the idea of drafting Warmack, who is one of the better guard prospects in the past decade or so. I have a feeling he will be the BPA. I do think we end up drafted a pass-rusher. I just don't like the idea of drafting 3 defensive players for 3 straight years. Keenan Allen intrigues me though. Holmes won't be here much longer. I love the prospects that are available, I'm not worried about our position. Who they draft worries me. We've done good in the past with Wilkerson and Coples as our 2 first rounders. Kyle Wilson not so much.
In full honesty, if geno is there at 9 I consider drafting him. I normally against it, but now I think it's the right pick. If we got him and gio Bernard in the 2nd then he'd be walking into a decent situation. Also lets be honest, this team has no starting QB on the roster. Mark is hated by fans and is mentally distrot, tebow can't throw, and McElroy is a backup
Have you seen Geno Smith throw under windy conditions? These QBs are all awful man, I would be so pissed off if we drafted one
Br4dw4y5ux mentioned it in another thread but that's what everyone was saying about 2005 and you wound up with Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell & Matt Cassell. I'm not advocating Smith at 9 or saying that Smith, Orton, Campbell or Cassell are any better than average but there is definitely a scenario that taking a guy in this draft could have value.
i mean all QBs have their flaws. i seriously think we were spoiled because of last year's draft class. matt ryan and aaron rodgers didn't go first overall, but look at how they've done. same with big ben. i think geno smith has value at 9
If the Jets were smart they would build from the inside out like the Walt Michaels drafts in the late 70s.....this upcoming draft I would like to see them finally get the pass-rushing OLB for Ryan, another ILB later, a couple of OL - at least one fairly high, and a pass-catching TE. Maybe they can hit on a mid round RB. I still think Stephen Hill is going to be a solid contributor and they have to see what Bush and Allen can do at safety. That would be pretty realistic and would set them up pretty well for the 2014 draft when they should be drafting even higher, have a much more flexible cap and can concentrate on skill players...i.e. QB, RB, WR...this is at least a two year project anyway.
Getting the trenches settled for a few years would be a great way to start the rebuild. You have to be careful not to wind up like the Browns though. They've taken trench players over and over again but not really progressed due to the lack of a QB and other playmakers on offense. Trent Richardson and Brandon Wheeden (28 year old rookie QB) were their attempts to get things jump-started last year because the trench players were already going prime and the team hadn't gotten off the ground yet. Obviously the effort failed because they have a new regime now and are still looking for the head to go on that body.
If you are referring to the pinstripe bowl... it was probably one of the worst throwing conditions to play in I've seen in a while. You dont evaluate a QB on a game like that. Scouts even said that the tape is worthless because its impossible to evaluate them in 30 mph winds with snow. I think you are going to have to get over this "all of these QB's are awful" thing. So many posters here have that same view... Im not sure why. Instead of thinking "oh, all of these QBs have flaws and arent Andrew Luck or RG3 or even Teddy Bridgewater in the future, so they are horrible prospects"... try and actually evaluate them- find out what they do well (because I guarantee each one does something well) and weigh that vs their flaws.... There will be 1 or 2 solid QB's from this class and I would say there's a good chance one turns into a very good NFL player- you just have to see which flaws you are okay with and think are correctable. For instance, Geno Smith- this guy gets a terrible reputation around here. Sure, he's not Andrew Luck or RG3, but they are once in a decade players. He's got decent arm strength, good pocket maneuverability/presence, is extremely accurate, has good anticipation, is a leader and is undervalued in terms of reading a defense. He has his flaws- not a great arm, needs a good OL, has the term "system QB" thrown around when talking about him and he doesnt have outstanding size. Is he worth a #1 pick? Probably not... but arguably no one in this class is. Is he a top 15-20 player? I would say so, and considering his position he will be valued as a top 10 pick most places. If he's there at 9, he definitely presents value... And honestly, if we want the quickest possible turn around, he might be our best option. Also, as Bradway has pointed out- the dream of getting Bridgewater next year is highly unlikely so you have to weigh that.
1. I am all for trading down. Say, if St. Louis offers both of their 1sts (or 1/2. Whatever they have in mind.) for Jets 1st (and maybe some chump change), I'd say why not? (St. Louis select 16/22 in 1st round this year.) It looks like St. Louis need some safety help (just like the Jets do) and Vaccaro won't be there at #16, so it is highly likely for them to trade up if that's the way to go. 2. If Jets successfully move either Cro or Revis for #1 (and some chump change, hopefully #2 but #3 more likely) then Jets are in good position to be. I'd say, build up from the trenches on both sides. Jets need both OLBs AND some OLs. I was told Jets are high on Austin Howard, and considering his performance last year, I would think burning high pick on OT with the intention to replace Howard is not necessary. Jets still need OGs - Slauson should come back cheap, and Vlad needs competition. 3. Sure, Jets could (and should) invest in skill players - and if BPA dictates that way, I'd say go for it. Just, my inclination is that, Jets are in serious cap hell now (1) and Jets won't be contending next year anyway (2) so I'd like to see them lay the foundation first, so when they do take the skill position players next year (and maybe QB) they are ready to take off. Also, most of Tannenbaum's stupid contracts run their respective courses by the end of next year - making it a prime year to shoot for the moon. (Should the chips fall that way.) 4. Thus, I'd like to see the following happening: a. Stupid contracts - TAKE A GOD DAMN PAYCUT. (You don't want to restructure too much. That is not in the Jets' best interests. You should let the stupid contracts run their courses, if possible.) b. Trade down for more picks. (There will be a handful of teams to trade up.) c. Trade either Revis or Cro for high picks. d. Solidify the front seven and the OL. (This would cost about 3-4 picks.) e. Draft safeties. d and e are for the early draft picks. (1/2/3 round.) If chips fall the way I would hope, Jets should be able to address the needs at the trenches and safety spot AND still have a handful to draft skill position players. (Trade down: 1 -> 1 + 2, Revis -> 1 + 2 / Cro -> 1 + 3, so after these transactions, Jets should have 1st x3, 2nd x2 and 3rd x2)
I think the Jets almost have to take the elite pass rusher if he's there on the 9. The reasoning is that the Jets have to get both a pass rusher and a QB before anything else becomes possible on the Lombardi front. So if they don't get either this year then they're still two drafts away from having the basic ingredients on the roster, let alone having everything jell. The question becomes whether Jarvis Jones is a safe take if he's there on the 9. By that point 8 teams will have passed on him, likely because of the spinal stenosis issue, and the question is whether the Jets can make the pick in those circumstances. Let's say they decide he's too risky and they go for a safer pick like Lane Johnson or Chance Warmack. They've probably solidified the offensive line in a big way but they are still short the most important playmaker on both sides of the ball and 2014 will provide one of those at best. The Jets could get lucky later on an Elvis Dumervil type pick with Trevardo Williams or somebody like that but you can't plan around the chance you're going to get lucky. So taking the OLB/DE on the 9 if he's there becomes the logical play. BTW, taking somebody like Barkevious Mingo on the 9 would be a typical Jets reach based on outstanding physical abilities not attached to outstanding play in college. That's the kind of pick where you're better off taking the OT because you're not likely to miraculously turn Mr All-World body into Mr All-World if he couldn't get there himself at LSU against college competition. It's a nice fantasy to think you can take D-Rob and turn him into Warren Sapp but that's all it is, a fantasy.
Texas Tech game usually comes to mind for me, I haven't seen every WVU game, but I just come away very unimpressed especially since he's a senior. Big 12 is pretty overrated as well, no defense is usually played there either. To me he's a full out fraud and so is Barkley. I see them as late first rounders, early 2nd rounders. Skill position players, offensive line, pass-rushers. This is the year. Stay away from QBs at all costs. I don't see the upside of bringing one in. Jets have shown they can't develop QBs, so why bring in a project QB? People want to bring up Aaron Rodgers, but fail to see the fact that he was stripped of all his footwork and fundamentals and pretty much had to start over in Green Bay.
Geno Smith is a Chad Pennington level prospect. Somebody is going to take him in the 1st round it's just a question of where he goes and whether anybody really reaches for him. If he went on the 1 nobody would be shocked.
I would have loved Ansah or Mingo pick, if Jets had a good LB coach to bring them up to the elite status. As it stands, I have no confidence in that idiot Van Gorder. Thus, reaching for these kids is not a sensible idea. I wouldn't oppose it, but I see the Jets yet again failing another promising kid with their stupidity. So, then, it comes down to whether the likes of Dion Jordan or Damontre Moore is available at #9 or not. Jarvis Jones is... a risk. An apparent need in a few years again. I'm not going bet my belly lint on that kid having a long and prosperous career.
I really think that taking a guy who has not starred in college in the 1st round is the biggest mistake a franchise can make. If he starred only in a season or two then you have some questions but if he was not making a huge impact at any point he should not be expected to make a huge impact at the NFL level. If coaching was really the key factor then you'd see championships going to the few guys who were good at coaching over everybody else. Instead you see championships going to the star QB's over everybody else, with the odd case where a great team wins because they are overloaded with talent.
If the Jets have any real chance to be competitive this year, they are going to need find quality starters to replace the amount of starters that will be leaving this offseason. At first glance, we are in serious trouble going into 2013. Our cap situation doesn't offer to many options, but we do have 3-4 contracts that can be restructured in Harris/Cro/Holmes to cover free agen signings. QB - Yes, we have a starter from last year, actually 2, but neither of which are expected to be starter quality. If I were running the team, my focus would be to find a quarterback in free agency that would push the quarterbacks on my roster, and had a high football QB. Obviously, I would want a Brady-esq QB, but would strive to find that forbidden term "Game Manager". Jimmy Clausen is an intriguing prospect. He would come cheap, and has experience in the West Coast Offense. Currently a 3rd String QB for the Panthers, and may cost us a 6 or 7th pick. Colt McCoy is an ideal QB for the West Coast Offense. He really got a raw deal so far in the league, but has shown flashes in weak offenses. His first 2 years his top WR was a 3rd for most teams. Chip Kelly was reportedly going to have big plans for him if he coached there this year, and may still be a player to the Eagles. However, he could cost us a bit more than a 6th. Perhaps we could work out a 1st and McCoy for Revis. Kirk Cousins is another avenue. However, he would cost way too much straight up. RGIII is an injury concern, and Cousins could see viable time as the backup. Again, maybe we could work out a deal with Washington to send Sanchez an Revis, as well as their contracts out the door. Ryan Nassib is a tough, smart QB with a strong arm. He is also mobile, and can take a hit. IMO, it will take a first round pick to get him, and feel there are better options. Also, if memory serves me right, I was the first to tout him this year. Sean Renfree, IMO, is the best fit for us. He is projected as UDFA, but presents the best risk reward scenario. We could take a flier on him, and still sign a vet, or draft earlier. Sanchez/Clausen/McElroy/Renfree. WR - Percy Harvin is the only free agent I would look at. He would probably cost us a 4th rounder, and 3-4 Million per year. How much would are offense be upgraded already? Not to mention, our return game. With a competent QB, our WR corp is pretty decent for a WCO. I wouldn't spend a pick in the first 2 days unless BPA was a round down. RB - Reggie Bush is the only free agent I would look at. Miami still hasn't spoken to him about an extension, and looks to be on his way out. My biggest concern is that Bush ends up in New England. Bush is worth his contract to keep him from going there. Could you imagine if we could sign Harvin and Bush? Our offense went from limp dick to raging boner like a 10 year old with a sears catalog. OLB 3-4 - The Jets are going to be losing both of their starting OLB's. Yes, McIntyre has shown some flashes, but we need a real focus on bringing in a veteran OLB to start. Conner Barwin/Paul Kruger/Anthony Spencer/Shaun Phillips are one of these players that could start immediately, and upgrade our already strong defense. I would be extremely interested in signing 1 of them, and taking a flier on Quentin Groves. I really liked Groves coming out, and now with some time in the league could be that elusive 3rd down rusher we have been looking for. Say we were able to pull off these signings. We could focus our draft to BPA, and start building for the future. This greatly improves our position at #9.
