So an update... The storm has trended surprisingly warm and west, so most of Jersey is getting spared from anything heavy, except for very north NJ. Long Island is going to see a lot of rain before the turnover and could be as little as 4 inches, as much as a foot. Some are saying more for NYC but I'm not seeing anything past 8 inches, that number could go up radically as you head up into Westchester though. Connecticut/RI/Mass ... you guys are still /fucked/.
I would say this is pretty much on except perhaps NYC SM...At around 6pm I think we will have an idea where this is going. If it goes gangbusters like some models say...2 or 3 inches an hour for a 4 hour period COULD happen. But this lull and warm temps is on course right now. Any yep...you are totally correct...Conn/RI/Mass are in the major screw zone but there might be areas closer to the coast that get a ton of sleet...because if its all snow...major f'ed
If you are looking out the window right right now at a bunch of slush..yeah..I would agree..but if historic means records for some will be broken by tomorrow morning..I would say it could be classified as historic.
Snowing pretty good rite now in rockland,,,,,everything has been white for a while,,,,,we have food n drink n vodka :up: And are in full finding Nemo mode,,,,,,,,what's the latest Jay?this thing still doing what was thought lastnite or hasit changed ?
I would say the only change would be to down accums perhaps several inches...now I could say 5 hours from now up it several inches. The problem is the track..20 mile difference is a 6 inch. Sounds vague but anyone throwing out concrete numbers now is nuts. I still cant even rule out much higher numbers
Ok..couple obs. And for the record..its a damn snowstorm so deal with it..lol..not trying to scare anyone. Keep hearing that the rough stuff comes in around 5pm and while thats true..the semi rough stuff is right around the corner. Anyone waiting for 3 or 4pm to go home is going to have a real bitch of travel home. The precip is picking up NOW and the roads are going to go downhll big time in the next 2 to 3 hours. Another slow blowing tip. Around 4 or 5 pm...do your driveway and get that wet snow off the pavement..this way tomorrow you will only deal with the fluffy stuff and not have a bunch of easy snow sitting on top of this crap. Just a though. It works..I have done it many a time in storms that go from borderline cold to very cold..and thats whats going to happen tonite. The big snows will fall with temps in the mid 20's and dropping fast..not 32 where most are now.
Looking at the short term 12 hour models..I dont know..I just think this is going to go over the numbers predicted for NYC and North Jersey. Really starting to think that. This storm is alot stronger then what was modeled last night for this time. Heavy precip will be entering the city and LI and swinging through north jersey in the next hour or two..way ahead of schedule. We shall see.
Great pic of whats going on and what needs to happen for bigger snows: http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-15491-1360343380.gif The green is starting to pivot for nyc and then around to south ny and around to north jersey..once the yellow right behind it follows...boom..you get over 2 inch an hour snows. The Green is EASILY 1 inch an hour
And of course the PHASE...LOL...great picture of the two systems that are about 2 hours or so away from joining forces into a huge storm. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Once that happens...things go from eh to holy crap in about an hour
Been a moderate rain all day. Kinda windy at times. Power went out at my mom's work which surprises me since it's really not horrible out.
Keep em coming Jay your insight is appreciated,,,,.,now you are even giving snow shoveling tips :beer: good idea I will go out there soon and blow the driveway,,,,,,,again still snowing pretty good here,,,,not heavy but very steady:up:
Also Jay if those heavy snows do come sooner as you said does that mean the storm is moving faster or does it mean that it is picking up moisture and strength ?
moisture..strength. Speed is right on. The EURO which depressed everyone yesterday, just came in with 15-18 for nyc..lol..who knows!! But I will say this...the end time is pushed back till at least late morning..and I still believe this will do much better from I80 north that was is being predicted..and much better for those in Bergen County.
Thats unsual Green...I will say this...the wind map just showed that high winds are just off the NJ coast and should start entering your area pretty soon.
