Lets put it this way Drew...I have been following storms like this for decades. My favorite storm of all time was bliz of 96..nothing comes close. Now this one doesnt have the sex appeal that one did. It stalled..it lasted for 3 days...thunder snow...etc..etc..etc. This one doesnt have any of the appeal when you follow a storm...except the final outcome..its incredible. The dynamics are unmatched. Im going to check the GFS 1030 and if it shows anything close to the NAM...I will give you my opinion..brb.
Was really hoping for a 3 day weekend but sounds like if the storm is going to be as bad as it sounds like it is, my office (a school) will likely be closing at noon. Now I'm just hoping to maintain power for the weekend...
Ok...I think I got it. The Nam showed 40 inches for North Jersey...the GFS..another American Model just showed 12 inches..I kid you not. Now the Euro is around 20 inches. So an ole weather predicting geek once taught me..when the models are all over the place...take the middle ground of all of them..and its the Euro plus a few. So..Im going to go with 18-24 for North Jersey (but deep inside my brain I want to go higher...kind of like betting on football..but do you bet with your heart and bet on the Jets OR is my gut feeling correct). Lol..it sounds like Im taking it much more serious than I am..lets go with 18-24.
Yeah Drew...the timing really sucks..it would have to be a mega-storm to shut stuff down Monday..but I do believe there will be areas that will shutdown Monday..where? No real clue right now.
Just heard this..and this is part of the storm we havent even touched. Voluntary evacuations have started on the NJ Shore. New Moon...very strong winds...there will be a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet. No Sandy but this will be a problem.
I would say thats a very safe bet. Now around 2 pm tomorrow you will here people screaming bust because it might be raining then..with nothing on the ground. Watch the difference between noon tomorrow and 7pm tomorrow and you would think you were on a different planet.
Trenton is the true, if you go by models, line in the sand between a huge snowstorm and a decent storm edge. I wish I could give you a solid answer but thats the truth. I would think 5-10 but thats not really a help. Could it be even more? Some models say so.
Great future radar. Here is a tremendous..and I mean tremendous site that would teach the most novice some great stuff. You could spend an hour just messing around with all the model stuff from winds...temps...3 hour precip amounts...etc..etc...etc.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#
Euro comes out in 10 minutes and that will probably be the last model and the last clue before the short range models take over.
Interesting. I live three miles from the beach and I've heard nothing of the sort. Accuweather says no snow until 7pm tomorrow. Hopefully it's not too bad. 4-8 inches. weather.com says 5-8 inches. weatherunderground just says up to 7 inches. I'm hoping it's just rain near the coast.
And the Euro came down a bit..which would lead me to believe that the latest forecasts are on track...12-16 NYC...NNJ..huge numbers up north. The fear of 20+ down here is probably not happening..but then again its a long range model used in the short term so not sure if you throw it out. Oh well...be on after noon but will probably throw in a post or two in the morning especially if there are any big changes. Enjoy the Jekyll and Hyde which Friday will be for sure.
Read further..its for the barrier islands. Voluntary Evacuations for Portions of NJ Based on the information from the National Weather Service, Mayor Stephen Acropolis and Chief Nils R. Bergquist from Brick Township, New Jersey, are strongly encouraging any residents currently residing on the barrier island section of town and residents in those areas throughout the town that are prone to flooding, to relocate or take the appropriate action for their safety. The Brick Township Office of Emergency Management will continue to monitor the storm and provide any new updates as deemed necessary. Anyone who is of need of assistance in relocating can contact the Brick Township Police Department for assistance at 732-262-1100. link: http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt...jersey&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8&fr=yfp-t-101 There are two main issues the shore areas have in their favor for snow. The ocean temp for this time of the year is warmer than usual...and the the storm doesnt bomb out until its north of your area. But with the new moon and storm surge..this could be a bit of a problem for the shore area. Christ..no Sandy thats for sure...but it could be a bit of a problem.
Wow I stay away for a little while and lots going on,,,,,thanks for all the info Jay and everyone else,,,,be safe all :beer:
Hey I know it's a little early but where is everyone ? Big storm today , rise and shine lets talk about it and more importantly be safe all .
I keep hearing the term "historic" snowstorm and wondering if the word "historic" has any meaning at all?
