Lol...woke up to see a few more models. Well..Im going to just give a gut opinion on this. I dont know. When you get a storm as strong as this it always tends to be colder...even a few degrees than you think..and believe it or not, a few degrees is the difference between North Jersey getting 6-8 or lets say at least...at least...10-16..sooooo...lets go with at least 10-16 for now. And lets see if we need to up those numbers even more by tomorrow night.
Good morning,,,,,,,,,,Jay I am not going to lie ,,I luv what you are talking about and hope that this thing is what you say. Watching local guy rite now , he says wind will be a big problem,,,as far as amounts,,,he did not go into specifics,,,just changed the channel,,,,she is saying it will still turn to rain, and sounds much like last notes local forecasters,,not giving amounts. I have to make the doughnuts I might not watch the next forecast but look forward to the updates. Hey Jay when does this thing begin, is it as they say between 5 and 8 a m or later ? Am I having a 3 day weekend or am I going to have a white knuckler getting home in this mess?if it starts early I blow off the day,,,, let lil ole cbg know will ya buddy :beer:
Jay Any idea about the start time? My flight is taking off at 12:30 PM from Orlando? Expected arrival time is 2:45 PM to JFK
This is real tricky. Im on board with MS who posted above this post. Even if we get an all out snowstorm, this comes in like a lamb and ends like a lion so what really sucks, people will be looking out the window at some point saying..crap..I need to get out of here. Start times you stated seem right on.
Somebodys is going to bust GG...i totally agree. I just wouldnt say NYC yet. Latest NAM model shows NYC getting over a foot of snow after the first bout of rain. If the GFS at 1030 is close to the NAM, I would say NYC is very much in play for a real snowstorm. North Jersey is looking very very very good right now. The models shifted even more west, so even Boston might have sleet issues holding their numbers down. Bottom line is, anyone stating 2-4 or 20-40 is so full of crap that it would be better just to tell the truth...nobody knows where that line sets up..which is rare. Even when your wrong, the models give you a decent idea where that sets up...if that makes sense. There is zero agreement right now and I cant remember a huge storm coming here so close, time wise, where NOTHING is written in stone
BROOK...I really believe the worst part of this storm gets kicking late afternoon for NYC so sorry....I think you get your flight in. But..but..that can easily change and I hope you do not have the nightmare of going through the motions and then having things get pushed back..and back...and back
Okay I just moved my flight from Friday to Sunday My boys are having a blast in sunny Orlando It is 83 today and above 80 until Sunday I don't wanna come back to shitty North East at all...
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Jesus christ on a crutch, Mass is screwed. Personally that has me getting a dusting that probably doesn't even stick after the rain, so I'll take this NAM with a smile.
I was down in orlando when we had that huge storm in feb '06, I remember watching the news w/ snow covered NYC and enjoying the warmth of Disney :up:
Jay...local weather guy has my area (way Northern NJ...Ringwood to be specific) getting negligible snowfall. Says that wind will be a far bigger issue than snow. Do you call BS?
There is no part of North NJ that isn't getting a solid showing of snow. I'd be stunned if you got less than 6" and would expect a foot.
From what I'm hearing, it seems like the main Friday event is going to be all rain for all NJ/NYC (while CT/MA gets hammered with snow) and that accumulation here will only start late evening/overnight with a few inches into Saturday, possibly up to a foot. That sound about right?
Serious question for my friend Jay. It's sort of like one of those SAT questions - if Jenny leaves Chicago traveling 90 mph and Dave leaves New York at 60 mph..... I'm supposed to fly out of Boston on Saturday evening. I can't fly out tonight. I CAN catch an early afternoon flight tomorrow. Either way, I have to catch a connecting flight in Miami at 9:30 AM on Sunday morning. I'm thinking that I find an airport hotel room, Friday night and stick to my scheduled flight on Saturday evening and everything will be cleared enough by then. OR, I could catch the mid-day flight tomorrow while the storm is still young and then just stay in Miami an extra day. No matter what, I need to be at my final destination on Monday morning. So, where's this thing going?
Holy crap Jack..hey remember...you created this thread bud..so you come first. Heres what I would do..fly out tomorrow. This will not be cooking in Boston by noon bud...Saturday could be a friggin disaster..total disaster. Im sorry for rushing..will be back on at 4...but no way would I want to do anything up north on Saturday. If you can get out tomorrow mid day..do it.
Jay since ur Trivia guy I moved my plans to the Bronx at 11pm gonna need a cab ride home at 3am is this ill advisable?
With all due respect DH..your local weather guy is an idiot to put that out there..especially in Ringwood which has a cold bias. Sorry guys..this is has to be quick. Will be back on at 4 or 5 the latest. But no matter what you here..no matter what nonsense is out there...some will get more snow from this than ever before. Tend to think Conn to Boston..but NNJ and Southern NY is not out of the picture yet. Latest up to date euro model shows over 2" of precip from north jersey..nyc...conn...ri...mass. What is snow and what is rain? Right now, Im really thinking most is snow from nyc/nnj and north of that is all snow except on the coast where mixinig comes into play. Bottom line is that is a huge huge storm..perhaps precip wise the biggest I have ever seen(winter storm that is). And yes..winds will play a huge part with down trees..loss of power etc. Thinking right now that nnj gets 14-18 nyc because its nyc gets 12..and conn on north gets 20-30. see ya in a bit.
Well I have a flight out of Philly at 6:50 AM tomorrow... thought about changing it to today but after watching the Philadephia news I'm confident that the bad stuff will be a few hours away. I think I'll be ok. Just wish my son didn't have an important event on Saturday or I'd stay here a few more days and see if he could experience his 1st blizzard.
Sorry Mantana. I haven't seen this. I just didn't want to take any risk. Besides my boys wanted to stay here 2 more days so when Delta said you can change your tickets for free, it was a no brainer. I got a good deal from Alamo, 2 day extension will just cost 48 bucks total and hotel agreed to extend our stay 2 more days although Expedia said no room available. They worked out something for us. These Florida people are really nice Yes junc. I can understand what a nice thing it must have been for you . With the help of this storm, we will be heading to NASA tomorrow morning than will head to Miami for South Beach. It will be nice to watch those storm news when we come back to hotel from the beach. Man I loved Florida. I will now head here once a year. Hey Jay Thanks for keeping us up to date so far. When I rebooked our flight the lady on the phone said I took the last 5 economy tickets available for Sunday. If it wasn't for you, we would have been stuck here longer. It was my kids' idea. They said let's bring something to Uncle Jay from Florida. If you PM me your address, I will send you a shot glass from Miami.
