and the 1pm Euro has the phase taking place later...causing numbers south to go down..and leaving numbers north the same. Meaning..NYC goes from 12-18 to 6-12..but boston stays over 2 feet. Now we turn our attention to 1030 tonite and 1am tonite to see if the Euro shows the same thing. Gonna be a really really really tough call. Told you I hated predicted phasing.
And the inbetween model from the GFS..the one that said no big storm south of Conn now says huge storm for nj/nyc..huge. So you have the Euro screaming storm..then saying still storm but not as big..and they American Model..switching camps. Still...tons of agreement but very close call for nyc/nj as to whether this is a good snow storm or a great one.
Jay,,,,,,,,,I saw the noon forecast from ch 7 ( Bill Evans ) and he. Was saying 1-3 NYC and north of 287 3 to 6,,,,,,, I understand that the " local guys are idiots " and it is all about. " the phasing " but I await the TGG weather gurus update this evening ! Tell us more about the snow totals and let those of us hoping for a 3 day weekend and or plane delays what we can expect oh great and powerful oz,,,,I mean Jay :beer:
2 posts ago you showed the trend in NYC going from 2 feet to 1 feet of snow instead. Has that just changed? ("huge storm")
I believe it was Nathan Hale who said " give me a snowstorm or give me death " yeah that's the ticket:up:
On the euro model, it did just that. Then the GFS model showed what the euro model showed. Its going to go back and forth GG. Here is 100 percent definite. The qpf amounts..the amount of precip total..whether rain or snow..is record breaking for a noreaster. Its more common with a tropical storm. Here is why the numbers are all over the place. Great example is nyc. The latest GFS MODEL showed 3 inches of precip..3 inches! BUT...AND ITS A BIG BUT...Showed 1.5 rain and 1.5 snow...broken down that would be 1.5 rain and 15 inches of snow. Really? Is there such a thing. That much precip broken down that way? Hartford Conn. 3.5 inches of precip. 1 inch of rain and 2.5 of liquid snow. Thats 1 inch of rain and 25 inches of snow. What? Nobody..and i read CBG's post about the local weather guys..but what they are leaving out is that 3-6 inches of snow but 2 inches of rain. Now if the rain turns to snow fast..strong storms thats almost always the case, then what do you have? Anyone thats saying we are only getting 1 to 3" of snow is telling you the Jets WILL win the superbowl..guaranteed. When? What year? Really tough call.
If you go by the models now, here is what you are looking at A line from Conn, RI, MASS that produces 2 feet of snow. On south, LI gets just as much but has mixing issues in the beginning..so take a foot off. NYC same problem...so take a foot off. NNJ on south starts to taper off a bit at time because of where the phase occurs. For instance, NNJ gets 10...Trenton 6...Philly 3 etc. The cutoff line, unlike other storms runs north to south instead of east to west. CMAN...incredible..but you are in the 2 to 4 range. Hopefully that will change for you tonite. A ton will change tonite..just a feeling. Except Conn to Boston. Hammer city
Not quite enough to break out the big boy, but I'll take it. I got a lil one that I use every now and then too. Oh well, there's always Valentine's Day.
So jay I got plans in the city that night if its like a foot of pure snow it aint happening but if its crappy rain type shit that wont shut down public transportation im good to go, so whats the deal? btw u are the man i tell everyone at work weather forecasts they ask where i get em, u shud see their faces when i say the bullshit section of theganggreen.com
I give my wife updates from here as well when shes watching the retarded local guy. I bust Jay's balls a lot but theres a shit ton of awesome info. Jay does a good job
Hey thanks BC..a lot. And with that said, I hate to be vague. Sucks. Like I mentioned above when models throw out 3 inches of precip for NYC which would be 30 inches of snow..but only suggest 8 inches of snow...thats a shit load of rain right? So where do you draw the line on what really will happen? This is a hard one and so many people will bust. Very happy I do not do if for money. I will tell you this..give it 24 hours..check in tomorrow night..or even afternoon and perhaps the nail in the coffin will be applied. Funny thing is is that if you were meeting friends in Boston, Concord, Hartford etc...that would be easy. It doesn't get difficult until you get to NYC. Thats the best way I can explain whats going on right now. So many places are locked into an all out blizzard except our area. Might have a much better idea in about 3 hours. GFS comes out at 1030 and Euro at 1am.
And when I tell you, from the beginning..you are one of my tgg favs of all time..you know I mean it bud..and thanks Jon. Oh..and Jon...Conn? You are going to get buried bud...buried. I will have updates after the next two important model runs.
Lol..its funny cman...but I do feel bad...I really want you to get a big storm But here is a promise..PROMISE...You will get a foot of snow in the next 2 weeks..promise. 2 huge storms starting with the Valentines day storm and another 4 days later. One will get you big time. The Valentines day storm shows a huge blizzard from VA to Maine...and has shown it for a full week at least now.
I watched 4 local forecasters tonight and the snowfall amounts were all over the place .i guess we will know soon enough,,,,,,Jay any more updates tonight, did the euro model come out yet or did u already post what it said ? I am a little punchy so if it was already posted,,,disregard this :beer:
lol...that map you posted GG is a guy they call DT. He is a lunatic but very well respected underground. He is strictly going off the NAM model which everyone agrees is out to lunch. Shows 30 inches for cape cod and not much for us down here..could be right? Sure. Ok..quick update and Im a bit pumped. Was down in the dumps over the 1030 GFS american model because the Euro model had backed off big snows for the NYC metro area...but the Euro just came out. Real quick math..and I will recheck right after this..back to 12-18 for the NYC metro area. This is a real shocker because about an hour ago...many thought a solution was coming into place..and that the Euro would be the nail in the coffin. Two feet Boston..RI..12 to 18 for Conn...4-8 NYC metro...2 to 4 philly and so on. But no...back up to huge numbers for everyone north of Central Jersey. Let me confirm this.
Here are some of the quotes from the underground nerds...guys much better than the local news guys..MUCH. This run is sounding really good... It's going to crank!!!! wink.gif Getting word that tonights 0z EURO is closer to last night's 0z. Nyc area is crushed.. It looks like the EURO adds to the model mayhem. It is back to a big snow storm for NYC area. 12-20 for NYC on the euro. NYC gets over 1.50 QPF. And so on...so what does this mean? There is zero model agreement and a blizzard is just as good as a bust. What we need is this run..plus the GFS run at 1030 am to match it and then its game, set, match. Still waiting for the actual numbers to confirm.
The Euro puts down 15-20 inches of snow for NYC. 24-30 for Boston 16-24 for Cape Cod (mixing brings total down) 18-24 Hartford Trenton, NJ 6-10 Even Philly gets 4-8. Baltimore 2-4 And you can see the trend as you go south. Reason being a combo of mixing issues and also the storm cranking just south of NYC but east of Philly...north east of Baltimore. Again..where the phase takes (sorry GG...BUT I HAD TO USE IT AGAIN! LOL) place is the key and unfortunately, I really do believe..and this is VERY IMPORTANT...I really do believe that is something that will not be ironed out until it happens. Meaning..take any prediction with a grain of salt and wait for jaywayne (lol..I really get a kick out of 3rd personing myself..ala Bart Scott) to tell you its phasing. Once that happens...numbers lock in
There are certain weather terms the nerds use and one term is very very popular but done with disdain by weather people. Some terms: Fish storm: Storm is for the ocean and not people OTS: OUT TO SEA And the word that suits this storm and weather people hate it..because it just shows that no matter how much knowledge you have...its mother nature baby..the word is NOWCAST. Nowcast: Throw predictions out and view the radar as it develops and NOWCAST. Thats what many will do. Jim Cantore from the weather channel will be up in Boston. Jim is great...such passion for storms. He will be worth following for the storm even for us down here and will do a terrific job with NOWCASTING.
