Yaaay! Man, after 3 years, I'm really hoping this is the one. Having an Ariens and only using it once is like having a MB S550 or a Lexus LS series w/o ever taking it on a road trip.
This is the toughest call of them all. See, if the storm winds up phasing more south..it really gets amped up and creates its own cold air...and then starts to bomb out as it goes up the coast. If thats the case, you could see parts of LI getting hammered early and often..or..or...starting out as rain and as the storm gets cranking, pulls its own cold air to the surface..so you get rain..then heavy snow. Honest answer would be its too early for Eastern...OR any part of LI to know if you will have a blizzard..which is possible..or an all out rain storm. Again..really think this time tomorrow night the storm will be 80% locked in..where right now its about 50%. Couple of things I just noticed are that this does have the potential to be a huge storm..and someone is going to get hammered..or many could be hammered. But, while Im really watching this storm, I have been talking about the Valentines day storm which is showing up on EVERY model now for 4 days at least. Pretty wild. Ok..one at a time. 930 pm NAM model which goes out 84 hours and is an American model used for the short term. 1030 pm GFS model which has been out to sea but today started to show a huge storm but north of NYC 100 am Euro model which is usually king..and has been showing a New England snow storm for 3 days now but has shifted south the last couple runs bringing North Jersey into the equation. Does it continue? Will NYC enter the party? LI? Right now NW NJ...south central NY State...Conn...RI...and Mass are all in the party. Actually here is a complete breakdown of all the models I follow tonite: 0Z NAM: 930 PM (short term american model) 0z GFS: 1030PM (Long term american model 0z NOGAPS: 10:30PM (navy model) 0z UKMET: 11:15PM (british model) 0z GGEM: 11:15PM ( canadian model) 0z EURO: 12:30AM (the king..the god of all models..the european..bow)
This is the toughest call of them all. See, if the storm winds up phasing more south..it really gets amped up and creates its own cold air...and then starts to bomb out as it goes up the coast. If thats the case, you could see parts of LI getting hammered early and often..or..or...starting out as rain and as the storm gets cranking, pulls its own cold air to the surface..so you get rain..then heavy snow. Honest answer would be its too early for Eastern...OR any part of LI to know if you will have a blizzard..which is possible..or an all out rain storm. Again..really think this time tomorrow night the storm will be 80% locked in..where right now its about 50%. Couple of things I just noticed are that this does have the potential to be a huge storm..and someone is going to get hammered..or many could be hammered. But, while Im really watching this storm, I have been talking about the Valentines day storm which is showing up on EVERY model now for 4 days at least. Pretty wild. Ok..one at a time. 930 pm NAM model which goes out 84 hours and is an American model used for the short term.NAM WAS SHOWING A OUT TO SEA SOLUTION..TONITES MODEL SHOWED THE PHASE..AND ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE LAST MODEL...GREAT GREAT SIGN FOR SNOW 1030 pm GFS model which has been out to sea but today started to show a huge storm but north of NYC. GREAT SWING TONITE. GFS HAS GONE FROM OUT TO SEA..TO 2 TO 4....TO NOW 5-10 FOR OUR AREA. BRITISH MODEL JUST CAME IN AND ITS MUCH CLOSER TO THE EURO. 100 am Euro model which is usually king..and has been showing a New England snow storm for 3 days now but has shifted south the last couple runs bringing North Jersey into the equation. Does it continue? Will NYC enter the party? LI? Right now NW NJ...south central NY State...Conn...RI...and Mass are all in the party. AGAIN..Updating the models as we go. The british model and GFS are in..and MUCH BETTER. See bolded above
Look at me quoting me..not a good sign..or is it. Ok...the bolded part above is one model is in.... GFS COMES OUT IN 10 MINUTES.
Jay ,,,,cool stuff ,,,,keep posting your updates :up: I hope all the models start chiming in and saying what many of us snow lovers want to hear ! When you have an idea of when it will begin ,Thursday nite . Friday morning ? Friday nite ? Fill us in as I said me and the kids luv 3 day weekends :beer:
Lonnie Quinn ch 2 guy just said it starts around 9 a m Friday morning and that nw new jersey / rockland / ME gets 4 to 6 inches . I await the update from TGG weather guru Jaywayne :beer:
Lonnie Quinn...eat it..lol..Im here CBG! Ok..here is what we have: Nam model came in much better...GFS came in much better...British model came in much better. If you go by the 3 models mentioned above, we would be getting 4 to 8...but we are not going with those models right now because the Euro model,which comes back out at 1am, has been showing this storm for 4 days and is showing it giving us at least 6 but continues to TREND BETTER. Lets see what happens tonite. As far as starting time...I would say his timing is probably within 4 hours. If that is the case...all schools would be closed because by the time they get out...this baby is cranking. My guess is right now..the worst would be from 2pm to 10pm. Again...blah blah blah...tonite at 1am tells us a lot..and by this time tomorrow night we will lock in.
Will be back on around 1am to update the Euro and hopefully...the Euro trends just one more time to move us into the Major snow storm spot.
Hey jay. What's it gonna look like when I wake up Saturday morning up here in lewiston Maine??is there going to be a lot of snow?
Well guys...we have talked about trends..thats what I have been saying now for 48 hours and the EURO is out..trends trends trends. Now we want the trends to stop. North Jersey...foot plus...NYC foot plus...LI...Blizzard conditions stretch from northern NJ...NYC...All of Long Island...Eastern PA...2/3 of NY STATE...all of CONN...all of RI...most of MA. and its all snow. Thats what I was talking about. When you get a storm of this magnitude, it creates its own cold air. Heavy winds..blowing and drifting snow...in a kind of short period of time. Perhaps 12 to 18 hours tops. Now, the models Im sure will change a bit here and there and probably someone might get cheated out of something but this storm has monster written all over it and Im sure the news agency's will pick up on it tomorrow morning. Starting time between 4am and 10 am Friday morning..and over by midnight. A bit shocked by this one..lol...but things could change. CBG...get ready my friend! CMAN...Will have to keep an eye out where this takes off..are you too west? Maybe...maybe not.
Eastern Maine gets hammered....middle...western Maine? Tomorrow night you will get your confirmed answer
Here is the Euro model..see the round circle off the coast of NJ/Delaware? Thats the center or eye of this storm...a true monster of a storm. Pulling data conversion now for precip to breakdown if its all snow and amounts...give me a minute. LINK:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=189147
As per the Euro model at 1am: EDIT..JUST RECHECKED MY MATH: LI 20-28 NYC 16-24 North Jersey 16-20 Eastern PA 8-12 Central Eastern Conn. 22-28 RI 22-30 Eastern MA. 24-32 Now the Euro tends to be on the money or sometimes throws out a bit too much qpf when storms get all cranked up. Rule of thumb for the Euro is when more than 48 hours out..take off 10-15 %...or its dead on. My gut tells me its dead on. Now by tomorrow 1pm things change dramatically? Absofrigginlutley. And I think they will change...but not much. See ya tomorrow around 1pm!
If I can find any bad news..and it does kind of suck..the start of the storm according to the Euro backs up till around noon...so Friday starts off kind of normal but hopefully all the news will get people where they need to be earlier...IF IT HAPPENS LOL. Which also pushes the storm into Saturday morning end.
OH...and one more thing..the Euro ensemble means...an average..actually shows NYC getting over 2 feet of snow...and North Jersey getting 2 feet of snow. Sorry...im always looking for the good...but Im not sure I can buy that totally..but then again..I think I am in denial right now.
Brook...I remembered you posting this and Im reposting it..what time are your flights out of Florida Friday? Yuck..tell me you are leaving in the morning.
