Gordon,,it's strange because it isn't as if we have not had cold air, because we have it is just we have had like very little snow / moisture. As jay said some of these storms went to our south and others were out over the sea. I know the winter has been here its cold As a ( not sure how cold her boobs are )witches tit outside some days . I guess it old be the winter that wasn't or maybe the snowstorms that weren't :beer:
Well they forecast snow in Northern NJ for Friday. Chance of snow 70% according to weather.com We need Jay to verify though
Really tough call brook but heres what we are looking out and the only thing we have in our favor is trends trends trends. The models have gone from a complete rain storm to an all out snow storm for the northeast Then the models started stretching that snow line down through NY STATE AND Mass to NW Conn. Boston for instance shows up as 2.5 inches of precip which if all snow...is over 2 feet of snow. Does the south trend continue? That weather.com saying north jersey all snow? No model is showing that but they are going by trends. What happens later tonite? More importantly is what happens at 1pm today with the Euro. Big model run. Does the Euro trend even more south with this storm? Read back...jaywayne said this was starting to look interesting a couple days ago didnt he? lol...self pat on back. Lets see what happens at 1pm..because this is the first real chance at a huge storm. If you go by current models..temps start out in upper 30's and drop during the storm...rain to snow...3-6. Those numbers can easily change either way. 1PM baby..trend trend trend.
Jil, You, my friend, have mentioned numerous times about phasing and this storm is ALL...ALLLLLLL...about phasing. Phasing determines the strength..the temps...who gets what...who gets rain...who gets over 2 feet of snow. Or does it phase too late and nobody gets over 6. But with that said, right now..the trend continues. Boston sticks with 2 feet..while east of NYC gets into the action on the latest Euro with over 6 inches AT LEAST. Now the good news is, the GFS American model was saying no and now says yes...and just keeps following the Euro. Where does the phase happen? Does the trend continue so that the NYC Suburbs get into the huge numbers? At some point the trend will end and if its right now..it would be a nice storm starting with North Jersey..and just get bigger and bigger as you head northeast from there. Conn...bigger....RI...bigger...Mass...really big. Does the trend continue south? Tonite at 1030 GFS and 1am Euro will tell the story. If there is one more trend..we will probably get a pretty decent snow storm down here..but for Boston west? They are going to get clobbered. EDIT: What is phasing? Its when the jets phase..the northern jet with the southern jet...the artic jet with the northern jet stream. the southern jet with the subtropical jet. Sometimes you hear the phrase triple phase..or perfect storm. That will not happen here but the northern and southern jet will phase at some point and where that happens will tell the tale. Does it happen off the coast of NC? Huge storm for east of nyc or even nyc...on North Does it happen off the jersey coast or Delaware? Big storm for New England but less further south.
lol...the models for the Euro just spit out almost 3 feet of snow for Boston..that will change...should...but where will it end up?
nice summary jay - thanks. if that high to the north wants to sag down a bit that could help. no? gonna be perusing those weather boards tonite after hours. place is probably having a melt down right now which can only get worse if this verifies.
Cman I am no weather geek but I think it means that you might be able to take the ariens outta moth balls :beer: Jay,,,,,,,,we look forward to the updates ,,,I am starting to get that warm fuzzy feeling :up:
Yep Jil....that high would help send the phase south..great pick up bud! And of course send the colder air south...but yep..huge help
hmmmm...how do i break this to you cman...this puppy doesnt really get going until it gets closer to the coast..now you too need to root for a more southern phase..which seems to be the trend..but you still need about 100 miles.
You know CMAN the initial burst of snow in PA is pretty decent. And with the south trend, I really shouldnt say you will not be getting a bomb too. Right now, its very very up in the air who gets what. If you went off the models RIGHT NOW, NYC and east to L.I. would be rain. The rain, snow line would be extreme NW NJ cutting through South NY state and through central Conn. Now if thats what the models are showing now, there would be no talk to of snow..but again...we are going on trends and model corrections. This storm has huge potential but relying on phasing near the coast is putting a lot of eggs on one basket. We shall see. I want to see a more southern phase tonite with a storm off the coast of NC...and then Im all in
I'm gonna gas up the Ariens anyways Jay. If for no other reason, just to keep Wifey from talking more shit about the usage (or lack thereof). :lol:
That could be a prime area. Very very possible..is it the 16" plus area? That answer will not be known until tomorrow night..but will follow.
Because for the most part...they are idiots. I have not watched a local weather person in over 10 years. I watch them once the storm kicks in to check out radar. They are idiots..with all due respect..lol.
