Seeing some of the debate around here about selecting guys like Warmack vs Mingo etc got me thinking Focusing on just the first 3 rounds of this upcoming draft, which guys do you see as the safest picks ? As in the most likely to be as advertised And which guys do you see as the biggest boom or bust picks? Seems to be an even mix around here of people wanting us to be aggressive and go for that possible elite guy, while others wanting us to get the safe predictable route. So I thought this could be interesting
Round 1 Safest- Warmack, Werner, Moore, Manti, Eric Fisher Riskiest- Mingo, Jones, Mingo (He deserves to be on it twice) Round 2 Safest- Gio Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Nuk Hopkins, Barret Jones Riskiest- Tyler Bray, Robert Woods Round 3 Safest- Markus Weaton, Quinton Patton, Chase Thomas, Stedman Bailey, Stepfan Taylon, Ryan Swope Riskiest- Brandon Jenkins, Landry Jones, EJ Manuel, Marcus Lattimore (3rd round and later) Now I feel like "safe" has a bad connotation when talking about prospects, because it comes off as having the lowest ceiling. I definitely feel like many of the safe picks I named have the potential to be some of the best players in the draft. There are also a few risky picks I would make and I could see being very good players, but I wouldnt touch them until the 3rd round or later (Brandon Jenkins and Lattimore for instance because of injury).
Well I think it has to do with the principles of valuation. I mean if a guy is a "safe" pick, usually what makes him "safe" is low variability. Because variability usually goes both ways, either a guy is known or hes unknown. The greater the "known" the safer he is. If a player was a 100% safe, that would mean he would be 100% exactly as advertised. IE you rate a guy as a 90 on a scale of 1-100, if he were completely safe then he would be exactly a 90. In reality no player is 100% safe, or 100% a risk but still. I think you have a point where some people exaggerate how good or bad a player is though. btw nice list Id be really happy if we grabbed 2 safe OL guys with our picks early on. I think it would go such a long way to help us revamp this offense. Guys like Warmack and Jones early on are so appealing, and seem like pretty safe picks I feel like our biggest needs on offense can likely be filled by "safe" picks (OL), where as our defensive needs we would likely go for a riskier guy
Ansah is a huge gamble....I would look elsewhere. He was going to be on my Risky list I was about to post. Jordan isn't much of a risk, he has been a solid player, that excels in coverage, something a lot of DE/OLBs out of college fail.
Jordan has very good rush ability, but IMO, Jones and Moore have been more consistent rushing the passer. Jones has shown improvement in coverage. What Jordan has going for him , he's more of a complete player with great coverage skills. The pass rushers get all the love, just like V Gholston. Everyone was in love with Gholston's productivity, and neglected his lack of coverage skills and his lack of desire.
Barkevious Mingo: All Bark, No Bite? http://t.co/r9ZVKQTh @Dumonjic_Alen discusses the LSU product. Nice breakdown of probably the highest risk/reward guy in the draft.
I think both Jordan and Ansah are are in the risky category for very different reasons. Ansah is raw technique wise. He could use a lot of coaching up on working with his hands. That said, he shows very good awareness in the screen game and gets his hands up to bat down passes often. He moves well in traffic and has a ton of power at the point of attack. Making him a OLB is the risky projection and I think he will be a very solid 43 end. Jordan is more fluid and polished of a player and has great athleticism for a man of his size. Due to his nagging injury history and his very lean frame one has to wonder how well he will hold up at the next level and if he can keep on the appropriate ammount of muscle mass to be a guy to set the edge consistently. These two have the most risk / reward factor of the first rou d pass rushers in this draft. Jones also needs to be placed on the risk Side for his medical history.
