Jay please give a weather update as I cannot handle this press conference or any of this other. " new beginning " bullshit,,,,ugh I'm ill :sad: Snow pease !:sad:
Sorry CBG....There is really nothing to report. The storm I put my so called reputation for next week is on the radar...as is the one for the 19th...but the models have gone a bit warm. Horrendous start to the winter and it just seems like cold air..cold air..cold air..then a storm forms and runs towards the great lakes..which puts us on the mild side of the storm. Remember..right of the storm warm..left of the storm cold. Thats why you need storm to ride the ocean..the coast..so we are on the left side of the storm..and that aint happening. Not sure what to tell you other than storms are lining up for the middle of the month on..like we have thought. Just that the cold air may not be there. Trust me..as soon as I see model agreement even if its 2 weeks out..I come runnin here first lol. Lets see what happens with the models as we get closer to the weekend for next week.
Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/s...-in-frequency-and-intensity-around-world.html
ha..nice shot GG. Quick update on Tuesday/Wednesday. Little surprise...the small rain event has colder temps and should be a snow to sleet event..then to rain by Wednesday morning. Nothing huge..but might get a bit slippery Tuesday night. Nothing else to mention in the next 5 days.
Tuesday night Wednesday storm seems to have picked up a little steam. If the American GFS model wins...northern NJ should get 2 to 4 away from the city with the city getting slush if anything. If the Euro...European Model wins..then there will be sections of northern NJ that get 4-6 inches of snow and a ice mix closer to the city. We shall see...Im leaning towards the Euro but that is not a big gamble. The weather forecasters seem to be leaning towards the GFS because they are calling for a trace here and there with highest totals around 3.
Depending on how far north you are..not sure about your location...you could get a nice fresh coat. Here is your 7 day outlook: Hopewell Junction, NY Tonight:Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 41. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Friday Sunny, with a high near 33. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Reason for the lower amounts of snow might be because this small storm will lighten as you go north. I would think you would get at least 3.
Jay u made my evening,,,hopefully we get some snow,,,,kids and me are dying to go tubing,,,,,,I am glad u posted was about to put out an APB:beer: Keep us posted,,,,,,,come on euro model CBG needs a ill snow :up:
Problem with accum numbers is that sleet word. That really is the fly in the ointment for totals. 1 hour of sleet can cut numbers in half..and when you are dealing with a small storm...you are left with 1 to 2 inches of Ice and snow compared to 2 to as much as 5. Somewhere in the middle..perhaps 3 sounds logical for north Jersey..but sleet will be the winner for the most part I think. After this storm...and I did hit this one 2 weeks ago with the 15th prediction...only problem is I was about 7 inches off..phew..and thats a lot...but anyway, it gets cold..then a warmup for the weekend before we get hit with the coldest weather of the year next week. Highs in the 20's and lows single digit. Will there be snow with the cold air? Very possible about a week from today.
Jay--what time should we expect it to begin NW New jersey / Rockland and when will the precip end ? also props to you and the info you have given :beer:
I would say in the next couple hours if not in the next hour C. Ending is forecasted for about noon..but one thing I always go by is..cut off 2 hours before the suggested ending..so around 10 am. But..CBG...I have the news you have been dying for my friend...let me answer Brooks Disney question first..and then..time to talk about major snow storm or perhaps storms for next Tuesday and Friday baby.
Lol...I just looked at the dates...even the brilliant me cant answer that one..but heres a long shot. Long term models suggest cold pattern for us..so I will go with a bit lower than normal for Disney. How about mid to upper 50's during the day. lol...I will watch it as we get closer. Now...lets talk snow storms baby.
Ok..two storms on the horizon. One for the 21st and one for the 24th. Both have good chances of happening the question is how big. Im really liking the 24th...but the 21st could be a big one too. Will have to iron out details in the next 2-4 days...but everything is a go for one of them. Plenty of cold air and the southern jet merging with the northern jet. Lots of kickers..lots of potential. The whole time frame from the 20th to the 30th has got to be what we are looking for.
Jay type slowly---take ur time I look forward to your next post,,, my son is sitting here with me waiting for " the Jet weather guy " and can't wait to see what u say about next week :beer:
Jay, I'm about 10 miles as the crow flies....what's it looking like? Was 40 degrees when I grabbed the chillins
Ha...tell him he has a great dad..but Im sure he knows that. Latest forecasters are cutting down amounts this little storm. Down to 1-4 but this was never going to be a big one. Tell your little buddy the snow is coming next week...guaranteed. What a great pattern. Very cold temps too. Models showing heavy snow with temps in the 20's dipping in to the teens during the storm on the 24th...and show something similar on the 21st but less snow. Still that can change. If tonites Euro shows the potential...I would say over 50 percent chance this is happening..now is it 1 or 2? Or 3 by months end? Lets see.
Thats the thing with this storm. Cold air never really developed..so sleet will be a big issue and freezing rain for some. No worries Hobbes...the big storms are coming starting next week. Finally models agree on something.
