My biggest fear with Lewan not declaring and the Jets so pressured to pick an offensive player would be that we reach for someone not deserving of the 9th pick. Warmack would be the more acceptable reach but I get this odd feeling we'd be willing to take a QB like Geno. Woody Johnson likes those "big splashes" and getting the "top QB" would be a splash, even though it'd be a HORRIBLE mistake.
Pretty much anyone in the top nine besides Detroit could draft a QB and nobody would raise an eyebrow. At least one will get drafted ahead of the Jets and maybe more.
I've got bad news for you. This isnt the 2011 draft where there were about 5 QBs who could be somewhat acceptable to pick in the first (besides Cam Newton), this year, there's MAYBE one. Again, my biggest fear for us this year is to have no QBs selected in the top 8. That could really screw us over.
if geno smith is (lets just say) the 10th-12th best QB in the league i'd say hes worth the 9th pick. i'd say we take a flyer on that
While I agree with your statement of value, QBs get overdrafted every year. Going into the draft, who thought locker or ponder were worth top 12 selections? Anybody who was paying attention could see that Gabbert was a fraud. Still, 4 of the top 12 picks ended up being QBs. With the teams picking high this year, I can't see how it will be different. Heck, Tannehill went 8 and Weeden went 22 to an offense he can't even run. Can't overestimate QBs getting overdrafted.
Some browns fans talking about him at 6 if Moore and Milliner are gone, but they're mostly the same dummies who wanted decastro last year.
I have to think that part of these elites not declaring has to do in part with the rookie salary cap, there used to be a HUGE incentive (30-40 million of them) to leave early and go top 10, but with the salary cap the money is still good but it's not the bonanza it once was.
He wouldnt sniff the top 20. Lets see whos better shall we? Even potential wise. Tom Brady Peyton Manning Aaron Rodgers Matt Ryan Eli Manning Drew Brees RG3 Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Luck Tony Romo Russell Wilson Andy Dalton Jay Cutler Josh Freeman Cam Newton Matt Schaub Colin Kaepernick Joe Flacco Matthew Stafford Philip Rivers Carson Palmer Sam Bradford You dont take flyers at 9. Especially for a subpar QB.
Weeden was not worthy of a first, but Ponder and Locker were (although late first not as early as they went). Tannehill was justified because the Dolphins were desperate, so I wouldnt fault them, he was worthy of a first round selection. Besides Weeden (at least IMO), Geno is not better than any of those prospects at the moment, even Gabbert.
Lewan staying is great news..... Now you have PHI/DET/ARI/SD all in need of an OT and everyone picks before Miami who if they let Jake Long go, will be in desperate need of a tackle. Eric Fisher was pegged to go to the Fish in my mock but now it gets a bit dicey.
Gabbert was awful in college, and Tannehill had about three good games at QB in his collegiate career. Smith's resume is better than either of those guys and ponder had a disappointing senior season as well. This isn't to say Smith is great, just why I'm confident there won't be 8 non QBs drafted before a QB is taken.
One thing all these top OT's staying in school is having on the draft is the prospect of much up or down movement in terms of trades up or down have decreased, the OT's were the main leverage in trade down opportunities this year. It's still possible if someone drops abit, but I don't think we'll see as much up and down movement in this years draft as last years.
Id give Geno the nod over Locker and maybe Ponder. Both werent great prospects and were overdrafted. Ponder, like Geno Smith was a 3 year starter and Geno but up a whole lot better stats. Ponder's best year is comparable to Geno's worst year in terms of pass attempts (because Ponder did only play 8 games due to injury). Locker's numbers dont even sniff Geno's either. Geno Smith- 2012 369 518 4205 71.2 8.12 87 42 6 19 163.9 2011 346 526 4385 65.8 8.34 84 31 7 26 152.6 2010 241 372 2763 64.8 7.43 71 24 7 28 144.7 Jake Locker- 2007 155 328 47.3 2062 6.3 14 98 15 105.0 2008 50 93 53.8 512 5.5 1 48 0 103.6 2009 230 395 58.2 2800 7.1 21 51 11 129.7 2010 184 332 55.4 2265 6.8 17 80 9 124.2 Christian Ponder- 2008 177 318 55.7 2006 6.3 14 54 13 115.0 2009 227 330 68.8 2717 8.2 14 98 7 147.7 2010 184 299 61.5 2044 6.8 20 44 8 135.7 Now, Geno Smith is no number 1 overall pick, but there can definitely be a case for him being a top 10 player, especially in such a weak class. Also I think Geno Smith could become better than Palmer, Schaub, Flacco, Bradford, Dalton, Freeman, and maybe even Romo, Cutler and Rivers. Lets not make it seem like Smith is a bad QB prospect. He's no elite prospect, but he does have a lot to work with and I dont see why he couldnt have more success than these players. Btw, just playing devils advocate, not saying we should draft him at 9.
