Yup, the financial conglomerate has a very good article -- but disturbing. I have been a 'defender' of Sanchez but I have to admit the 2010 analysis is frightening. Is Sanchez another Akili Smith ? The consensus in 2009 was he was a legit Top 10 pick, not a huge reach at #5. __________________________ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...e-little-sense-to-some-nfl-statisticians.html Jets Signing Sanchez Made Little Sense to NFL Statisticians By Mason Levinson - Dec 27, 2012 In a National Football League era dominated by elite quarterbacks, past seasons’ statistics help show that the New York Jets haven’t had one in a long time. Mark Sanchez’s fourth year with the franchise after being drafted No. 5 has been his least successful. The 6-9 team will end its season on Dec. 30 at the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez, who was given a new salary-cap draining contract in March that guaranteed him a combined $20.5 million in 2012 and 2013, quarterbacked the Jets to the American Football Conference’s championship game his first two seasons. Statistics show that the 26-year-old perhaps didn’t deserve the extension or a place in the team’s starting lineup even with the winning records. “To give Sanchez an extension in the offseason was monumentally ridiculous,” said Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com, which uses advanced statistics to analyze player values. “His performance is the equivalent of your average backup quarterback.” Sanchez had 13 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions while completing 54.8 percent of his passes before being benched following five turnovers in a Dec. 17 loss to Tennessee that ended the Jets’ playoff hopes. He’s had 50 turnovers the last two seasons. Sanchez will return to the first string for the finale. Greg McElroy, who got his initial career start in a 27-17 loss to the San Diego Chargers four days ago, informed the staff today that he was feeling the effects of a concussion suffered during the game, coach Rex Ryan said at a news conference. Sanchez threw for 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions as a rookie in 2009, then seemed to improve the following year, tossing 17 scoring passes while being picked off 13 times. Another 15 of his passes in 2010 should have been interceptions but were dropped by defenders, according to FootballOutsiders.com. “That’s the most dropped interceptions we’ve tracked from any quarterback in the four years we’ve been doing this,” Schatz said in a telephone interview. The website uses a ranking called DYAR, which stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. The metric measures how a player’s performance compares to generic “replacement- level” players in the same situation. Out of 39 quarterbacks who have thrown 100 passes this season, Sanchez ranks last. He also ranks 34th in rushing out of 34 quarterbacks who’ve attempted at least seven runs. “There’s no reason why you would want Mark Sanchez right now instead of a rookie you could get in the second or third round,” Schatz said. Backup Tim Tebow wasn’t trusted to become a starter when Sanchez was benched. McElroy, a third-stringer who was a seventh-round 2011 draft pick, was sacked a team record-tying 11 times by the San Diego Chargers. “Clearly, the die is cast,” Brian Billick, the Super Bowl-winning coach of the Baltimore Ravens in the 2000 season who is now an analyst for Fox Sports, said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got to go in a different direction. It’s hard to imagine that they believe McElroy is going to be the long-term answer. We know Tim Tebow is not.” Tebow, acquired in an offseason trade with Denver, probably will be released and play with the Jacksonville Jaguars next season, ESPN reported. Brought in to operate the Jets’ wildcat offensive packages that mix quarterback runs and passes, Tebow told reporters he was disappointed that Ryan chose to start McElroy against the Chargers. Prior to the game, Tebow informed his coaches he didn’t want to be used in the wildcat, ESPN said, citing multiple unidentified people in the Jets’ organization. Yesterday, Tebow denied that he had asked not to be used for the plays. NFL teams no longer can win Super Bowls without elite quarterbacks, as the Ravens did with Trent Dilfer and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did with Brad Johnson two years later, Billick said. Aided by one of the best single-season defenses in NFL history, Baltimore’s title came during an era devoid of elite quarterbacks, Billick said. Future Hall of Famers such as John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young and Dan Marino were retiring and current top-level players such as Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger were emerging or in college. “There was a void there but now it’s changed,” Billick said. “Can you win games? Yes. Can you be a good team? Yes. Can you win a championship? No. Not without solid play at the quarterback position.” The top quarterback prospects for the 2013 NFL draft are the University of Southern California’s Matt Barkley, West Virginia’s Geno Smith and North Carolina State’s Mike Glennon, according to Russ Lande, a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams. Barkley is most prepared to play in the NFL because he’s been in a pro system and is very intelligent, though not a great physical talent, said Lande, scouting director for the National Football Post. Smith, a strong-armed quarterback with a very good understanding of the game, “needs a lot of technical work” on his footwork and mechanics, while Glennon, a 6-foot-5 passer with a strong arm and poise, is slow to release the ball, Lande said. “There is nobody that I’ve spoken to that has told me, ‘This guy is the guy,’” Lande said of his conversations with other NFL talent evaluators. “Every guy, there’s concerns and questions about.” Both Lande and Schatz suggested the best option for the Jets would be to hire Norv Turner as offensive coordinator if the 60-year-old is let go as coach of the Chargers, who are also 6-9. Turner, with a reputation of being a strong developer of quarterbacks, was the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive coordinator from 1991 to 1993, when the team won two Super Bowls. “Let Norv try to fix Sanchez and give him a young guy to work with in case Sanchez never makes it,” Lande said. Ryan made Sanchez his first draft pick in 2009. The recent formula for new NFL coaches is to find a young quarterback with whom to build a team, said Billick, citing successful pairings of Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, and current Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco. “Rex reached out to get Sanchez and it didn’t turn out,” Billick said. “Typically when you miss on a first-round quarterback, it costs you. The question is, are you going to be given another chance?”
article is pretty much spot on....the Sanchez extension was the last nail in Tanny's coffin, the others were obtaining vets to fill a quick win scenario with a Head coach who has a heavy preference towards veterans.
Every team including good ones make mistakes in the draft. Maybe the good ones make fewer of them but what separates them from the bad teams is they recognize they made a mistake and cut their losses. Jets have shown repeatedly not only with Sanchez they never want to consider what if this doesn't work out. What is plan B? There is a lot of turn over in the NFL, players get old, good players get too expensive, or under performing ones need to be let go. So there are lots of opportunities to make bad decisions if you can't evaluate players or are unwilling to make the tough unpopular decisions. That's why bad teams who get high drafts don't improve. Bad GMs stubbornly defend their draft mistakes.
Not that it's a big point in Sanchez's defense, but I still think "dropped interceptions" is a dumb stat.
I think it's only dumb when independently assigned to one QB in relation to others. If a site like FootballOutsiders uses it across the board, I think it's very relevant.
Rex Ryan's greatest flaw as a coach is not making needed changes during the course of the season. He will play Sanchez every game next year, keep defending Sanchez at all the press conferences, and then watch his team go 4-12 next year. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting things to change.
No dumber than trying to cite dropped passes by receivers as a reason to justify Sanchez's low numbers. It is still a telling number though, I remember a ton of them during the first few weeks when Sanchez somehow had zero actual INT's.
People don't seem to realize that we gave Sanchez an extension to clear up cap space , It wasn't because we belived in him as the long term answer
Great article - love numbers. Point is - who is the culprit? Is it Sanchez, the NYJ's, or both? I don't want to go through this again, hopelessly drafting QB's and running them into the ground.
I think when you watch MS you see a kid that has all the tools and can make all the throws, but something in his decision making is way off the mark. IMO, due to the $ we have invested in him, you bring in the best OC &QB coach you can get your hands on and you surround him with the best possible talent your salary cap will allow, and you try to see what you've got in this kid.
Please nooooooooo. If by the end of year four you can't read the field, you don't have all the tools and never did.
My thought process is that we are stuck with him for another year so why not give him every chance to succeed. It's not like this offense doesn't need to be revamped,anyway, so the coaching and upgraded players would only benefit his successor.
That seems kind of contradictory...not to mention short sighted. Giving a player like Sanchez that kind of money doesn't make sense. Not then, not now.
Mark Sanchez is an atrocious football player. He will be here next year only because of the ridiculous contract Tanny gave him. But for this, he would have been gone already.
It moved money around so that the NYJ could sign other players and wasn't actually an extension based off of merit.
Really? What is the difference between a dropped INT and an INT when you are evaluating a QB? He still made a horrendous decision---it just did not turn into a horrible mistake. Does not mean he won't do it again and again--as Mark has shown. Dumb Luck is not an asset when you are breaking your QB's performance down.
I understand your thought process, but "giving him every chance to succeed" means starting him again in September. Now realize the damage this does. You've got guys who'll be busting their butts to make the team and win games, only to look at a starting QB who gives away games, basically. How demoralizing! Think about that aspect and the answer is no. I don't want him on the field, I don't want him on the team and I don't want him anywhere in the state of NJ. I can't even stand the sight of him anymore and there may be teamates who feel the same way.
I do to....I have to admit at the time I kind of waxed-over them as "everybody has some" but if Sanchez' were that much higher that year you could almost ascribe the better TD/INT and stats he had that year to random 'luck.' The thing that confuses me is -- and maybe his having only 1 year in college threw everyone off -- is that he didn't seem to have a 'bind spot' for not noticing coverages. You would think Rex -- a defensive guy -- would have noted it at the private workout. At worst, I would expect him to be average even if he's not Joe Montana in reading the defense. Here's what I would like to know: I want one of the beat writers to get the scoop on Sanchez' reviews of his INTs, near-INTs, and clear misses. I want to know on some of the really bad INTs what the hell was he looking at: did he not see someone, did he think he could needle a throw in, did he try and force a play because he knows he has no "O", etc. Some of the INTs -- even to this Sanchez defender -- had me scratching my head. The triple-coverage against Tenn comes to mind; how could he not see 3 guys near his WR ? I understand throwing that on 3rd or 4th down, maybe. But not 1st or 2nd. I have not seen any of the papers or blogs get in-depth information on what Sanchez and Sparano and Cavanaugh are seeing/analyzing. Look, that int deep downfield where the guy made a great interception (forget who) about 3-4 weeks ago, I could live with that. But the repeated 'telegraphing' of plays and throwing into 2/3/4 man coverage -- that should have been corrected his rookie year. Look: if Sanchez has to go, then he has to go, I'm not an idiot. But if he goes, and then turns it around with a new OC/QB Coach, we are gonna be PISSED OFF (remember Jeff Blake ?) realizing it was our shitty COACHES that hurt us, not the QB's inherent talent or lack thereof. Rant off.....
