I don't think that's necessarily true. Without knowing offhand, I could see an argument made that more QB's are taken in the 6th and 7th round as fliers and thus making them more likely to compile stats. Not to mention 30% of those 6th round starts are Tom Brady alone which singlehandedly pumps that number up.
Think about it though. Yeah 30% of the 565 6th round starts are Brady. But no QB selected in the 3rd round since 1994 has started more than 83 games in his career. No QB taken in the 4th round has started more than 90. No QB taken in the 5th round has started more than 18. Here's another breakdown: Games started by round since 1994 - top 3 QB's 1st - Peyton Manning 222, Kerry Collins 180, Donovan McNabb 167 2nd - Drew Brees 167, Jake Plummer 136, Tony Banks 78 3rd - Brian Griese 83, Matt Schaub 80, Josh McCown 33 4th - Aaron Brooks 90, David Garrard 76, Kyle Orton 69 5th - A.J Feeley 18, John Skelton 17, Mike McMahon 14 6th - Tom Brady 173, Matt Hasselbeck 152, Marc Bulger 95 7th - Gus Frerotte 94, Ryan Fitzpatrick 66, Matt Cassell 62 You see what happened there? After the 2nd round the names you recognize started to dwindle until the 6th and then suddenly you see Brady, Hasselbeck and Bulger. All at low expense for the teams that pulled the trigger on them. Those guys weren't high priority they were just a really nice plum that dropped into the hands of the patient, who waited them out and got rewarded.
I'm definitely on the Ryan Nassib bandwagon in the 3rd round. If he's availabe when we pick, - nothing would make me happier than to hear his name called.
When all is said an done, I believe Glennon will be best of class. I also really like Nassib, but his offensive scheme scares me. Smith/Barkley are top 2 quarterbacks in this draft, but I don't believe they are the top 2. When I watch Glennon in some you tube videos, he appears to be the most ready, but will need to work on his accuracy. His pocket pressence, and foot work appear to be impeccable. He is a true pocket passer, and I don't know if he will be able to extend plays. Just my two cents.
Glennon may not make it out of the first round, but definitely not out of the 2nd round. Wilson is a 1st round prospect, not that I agree with that, and Jones is a 2-3 round prospect. Really 6-7th round? That being said, I would take Glennon with our 1st, and not look back. If he busts, he busts, but he appears to be best in class (true QB, and not a newton/griffin type).
I agree with you and my last post on the 2nd page sums up how I feel about developmental QB's in the middle rounds. With that said, it's a separate argument saying you wouldn't take Glennon or Tyler Wilson before the 6th.
. See thats just it, I am only talking about physical attributes. Size, strength, ability to move etc. Is glennon that guy. If so fuck it and pull the trigger
I think what the numbers clearly say is that high in the 1st round is where you want to go fishing for a QB. There isn't any reason to go looking in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds. You're just not going to find a Hall of Fame QB there. The one guy who might be good enough who was taken there is Schaub and he's not getting there with the team that took him. Really I don't think the Jets should be looking at anybody but Geno Smith in this draft. None of the other guys looks like they'll be great at the next level. Even Smith is iffy. It's just not a year to take a QB and pretending that it is will just cost the Jets a draft pick and more lost seasons in my opinion.
Russell Wilson has a chance to be the exception but I agree with you in theory that the evidence is pretty overwhelming that if you're not taking a QB in the first two rounds you're better off taking a flier at someone in the 6th or 7th. However, I don't agree that Smith is the only QB worth taking in the first two rounds. There are a ton of holes on the team but if a Wilson or Glennon was to be available with our second round pick (extremely unlikely), I don't think it would be a bad pick.
There are something like 15 teams looking for a QB this off-season. If Wilson or Glennon is available in the mid 2nd round it will be because the logic machine that is the entire NFL have all passed on them once, despite needing a QB in many cases, and then all the bad teams will have passed again before the Jets pick. I wouldn't touch a QB on the 46 pick in this draft. Too much investment for too little likely return. It would be arrogant to assume that I was right and the rest of the NFL was wrong and invest that value anyway. In the 6th round that's a sniping pick and I see about a half dozen guys I'd grab there if they fell. Most of them won't. Maybe all of them won't but if somebody like Glennon or Jones or Wilson falls to the 188 I grab him. Those guys are all much better prospects than Greg McElroy was. You remember the Apollo 13 line about dealing with what you have? "You're telling me what you need. I'm telling you what we have." That's the way the Jets should approach the QB's in the draft this year. If they get lucky and Smith falls to their pick in the 1st they should seriously consider taking him if they're willing to invest the resources necessary to make the pick a good chance to succeed. If they can finagle their way to an early 2nd round pick by trading back some and somebody the new offensive coordinator is sure he can develop is there then that's a real option. Otherwise pass on all the question marks and jump back in again if a particularly attractive question mark gets down to them in the 6th round. The Jets have a lot of holes. To borrow another Apollo 13 line: "Let's not make things worse than they are already by guessing."
Name those 15 teams looking for a QB this offseason. I want to see your thought process played out all the way, not just throwing around a random number.
Yeah I was just about to say this until I scrolled down... I can think of 5 teams that would need a QB- ARI, OAK, PHI, KC and us. And of those 5 I can definitely see 2 sticking with something on their roster (Foles) or signing a vet in FA.
Teams looking for QB in draft I don't post here often, but I only see 7 teams looking for a QB in the draft including us. Chiefs: Cassel has proven nothing, and this team isn't winning anymore games with Quinn behind center. Jaguars: Henne is not the answer, and Gabbert doesn't show a lot of promise when he's in action. Raiders: I think Palmer will start next year, they might be looking for someone to learn behind him for a year. (Probably not, they are the Raiders :rofl Chargers: Rivers looks like he's on the wrong side of 30, and with a new Head Coach coming into town he may want his own guy. Not saying Rivers won't start next year, but they may draft someone to watch him struggle and learn from it e.g. Montana watching DeBerg. Cardinals: Self-explanatory, Skelton sucks and so does Lindley Jets: I think we will have a better idea after these next two games. Not saying that Greg is the answer (although I am hoping), but with Tebow on his way out and Sanchez on the fence... I'd like to see us take a QB in the 5-6th round like talked about in the other threads. Bills: I don't believe Fitzpatrick is going to help this team a lot more down the road. He playing OK this year (22 TD's, 15 INT's, almost 62% completion), but they may want to look for some to learn the system for a year (see Chargers). I don't see them taking a QB in Round 1, but maybe in the 2nd-3rd Round.
Huge Cuse fan. Nassib was great this year. Made a lot of difficult throws. Still can throw a rocket to a running back 10 feet away from him. Had some poor games junior year, but really did not have many poor games his senior year. Would love to draft him with the right coach.
Oakland won't draft a QB Kansas City will Jacksonville won't San Deigo won't Buffalo will Philadelphia won't I'm talking 1st 2 rounds
1st round gets the majority of start mainly off of perception, and salaries paid for that pick. I wonder what the percentage would be of success to failure on a 3 year cycle for that round. 2nd round - 3rd round are developmental QB's that will get an opportunity if the QB in front of him goes down, in a 3 year cycle, barring the QB in front has 3 years left in him. 4th - 7th percentage would probably show they never got a shot to run the show. If Bledsoe didn't get hurt, do we even know who Brady is today? It is all relative, and who gets an opportunity to shine.
I don't want to rush for a QB though that's what we did with Nacho and look at how that turned out Of course I'd want a Luck, Ryan, Griffin, Newton, Bradford or Stafford but I'd also take a Dalton, Tannehill, Wilson or Kaepernick if we surround them with the right type of talent
What is everyone's thoughts on Geno Smith? He certainly looks good from what little I've seen of him...
What system does he fit best in Would we have to trade up for him Is he the guy we want to build around Honestly if he falls to our pick I'd take him
