So the Jets are sinking into the muck again. We're in the latter stages of another season in which the Jets lack of talent has left them at the mercy of the schedule. Against good teams we are 1-6. Against bad teams we're 3-1. With 5 bad teams left on the schedule the most likely final record is 7-9 with 8-8 and 6-10 not out of the question. What does this portend for next season? Where are the Jets likely going at this fork in the road? If we look at past collapses under Woody Johnson's ownership the tea leaves are not clear at this point due to the differences in personnel and the circumstances of those disasters. In 2005 the Jets collapsed because the QB, who was well-established as the franchise QB, got hurt early on. Injuries all along the offensive line, including to the Jets best overall player Kevin Mawae followed. The coup de grace was the wheels finally falling off for Curtis Martin as the heavy workload of 2004 turned into a stumbling fall from grace in 2005 and his retirement after the season. The Jets recovered in 2006 because they turned a wealth of draft picks into a retooling of the offensive line after Mawae's departure. Failed draft picks on the line, like Adrian Jones, were replaced and Nick Mangold arrived to play center and the line was solid again. Chad Pennington, who was an effective QB, if somewhat limited by that point, had a decent injury-free season and the Jets prospered against a last place schedule. The arrival of Eric Mangini probably played less of a role than we think. Herm Edwards was not a bad coach when he had talent he just didn't have very much available in 2005 and so the Jets spiraled downwards. Mangini had more talent available in 2006 with a relatively healthy roster bolstered by the draft class and prospered. He also had a healthy QB all year. In 2007 the Jet follies began with a highly publicized spat between the player representative Pete Kendall and management. Kendall said he had been told his compensation would be increased to for 2007 to make up for a cut he had agreed to the year before. Management disagreed and began doing truly juvenile things, like making respected veteran Kendall room with the rookies in training camp. Things ended badly there and Kendall moved on never to be adequately replaced for the season. Laveranues Coles played hurt for most of the season and began to decline. By mid-season Chad Pennington was out as Jet's QB. The Jets were saved a finish in the cellar by the Dolphins worst season in franchise history. In 2008 the team spent a lot of cash bringing in vets like Brett Favre, Calvin Pace, Damien Woody and Alan Faneca and rebounded to play quite strongly for the first two thirds of the season before Favre got hurt and they collapsed at the end. The 9-7 finish was viewed as a huge disappointment but in retrospect it was a good season for a team that had gone 4-12 twice in the three seasons before that. In both cases a bad season prompted action from Woody Johnson, in 2006 firing Herm Edwards and hiring Mangini, and in 2008 splurging in the free agents. There was no stand pat out of the owner in the face of adversity. Instead he got proactive and addressed the problems he saw on the team. The Jets rebounded both times to play effectively and contend for a playoff spot again. So here's where I see the Jets potentially going next year. I see three scenarios as among those most likely to occur. I see a major branching point for the franchise depending on which of those scenarios most closely resembles the one the Jets choose. The Good Woody recognizes that the most pressing issue facing the franchise right now is a talent deficit almost everywhere you look on the roster. He resolves to fix the issue by replacing the talent evaluation and acquisition pieces in the puzzle. He goes and finds a new GM and lets that guy figure out what needs to be done to radically increase the Jets overall talent levels. Everything else that happens in that scenario is hard to predict because the guy running the show is going to be doing heavy triage as he looks at the staff and roster and decides who stays, who goes and who is dropped like a hot potato. The Bad Woody decides not to make any major moves going into 2013. He sees the results this year as primarily caused by bad play at a few positions and injuries to two of the better players on the team. He stays the course and decides to use next season as an evaluation of the organization as a whole with the idea of making a big splash change in 2014 if things stay below acceptable levels next year. In that scenario we get another season of Sanchez at QB with sub-prime talent around him. We get the same defense back next year minus a few obvious cuts like Bart Scott and Calvin Pace. Basically we go into next year thinking that the things that went wrong this year were uncontrollable and we'll get better results next year with a bit more luck. The Ugly The Jets and Woody are under more financial pressure than we realize looking from the outside in. Woody can't accept a low=profile rebuilding season in which revenues are somewhat depressed. He decides to make the team as splashy as possible, including a commitment to playing Tim Tebow as the starting QB. The Jets make a bunch of talent acquisitions to support that concept and bring in a read-option offensive coordinator - likely a failing read-option head coach in college whose offense works but who is failing for some other reason. We get a lost season like the 2008 season with lots of hoopla but very little real value added to the roster moving forward. This scenario is plausible only because you can make the argument that it would sell some PSL's and put some people in the seats who would not otherwise be there at the start of the season. It breaks down when you take into account the fact that the Jets would also lose season-ticket holders who didn't want to watch the Tebow show. It really breaks down when you consider the likelihood that the Jets wouldn't prosper much on the field and empty seats would become a reality in that situation. The questions facing the Jets moving forward are structural no matter how you look at it. They do not have enough talent to compete with the Patriots at this point, a situation that mirrors most of the last decade. They don't have enough talent to compare well with the Giants at this point in a market where both teams are fighting for new customers on an annual basis. They're going to have to make major changes to fix both of those realities and 2013 is the time to start. Hopefully we get good changes and not the bad or the ugly.
Well, I like getting a new GM, but auditions need to be made this year at QB since the season is shot. If Rex refuses, fire him. Interim coaches usually savor the chance to be a HC. If Tebow or McElroy succeeds, great if they don't we know where to focus next year. Sanchez is gone mentally, and if this FO can't come to terms with that then we are going to be cellar dwellers for a while talent attracts talent. We don't have much of that on the offense.
It's the same old story, as I've written in countless other threads, for me. Rex is just as guilty, if not more so, then Mike T in assembling a team that is devoid of talent and depth. I'm for blowing the whole place up and bringing in some heavy handed coach/ GM to put this organization back on the right path. There has to be accountability in the locker room and there never was any during Rex's tenure.
Br4d, the homer contingent of this board will absolutely hate your analysis. I've been saying this same thing for a while now as this team definitely needs to revamp it's management from top to bottom before anything else happens. Knowing the Jets like we do I pick the worst of the 2 bad scenarios. That would be stay the course and hope for different results in the form of merchandise and PSL sales with wins being secondary. If you're not improving, you're falling behind.
if i had to guess, the bad scenario seems the most likely. with sanchez rex and tanny all signed through 2014 woddy can save paying 2 gm's and 2 coaches next year. the injuries excuse would be a palusible argumeent to sell the fanbase.(although most here wouldn't buy it) it would also allow a new gm to come in 2014 with a cutable/tradeable sanchez and hopefully a few more holes plugged from this years draft. this years cap situation may not be a situation that any hot name gm would want to come too.
3 likely options to pick from. I think we chose #2 and 3 after last season, a little of nothing followed by a little Tebow. I'm hoping for option #1 this off season, but don't expect it...or maybe a half hearted attempt at it.
Unfortunately I fear due to contract restrictions we will be stuck with Sancheeze again next year. Rex is obviously dillusional. I know hes spewing garbage to the media that he doesnt believe but I still think he's in WAYYYY over his head here. I love Rex but he's got to go. I have heard names like Kyle Shannahan and John Gruden tossed around. At the very least we have to get new scouting and GM. Tannen-bum, Rex, Sporano, Sancheeze, Holmes, they ALL have to go. I say keep Pettine.
Great analysis Br4d... and your options are very plausible. I would love to see "The Good", but I'm afraid we will get a mix of "The Bad" and "The Ugly". A new GM, assuming we would be able to find a quality one, could definitely begin turning this franchise around. Beginning with a true evaluation of our CS and personnel, i.e. QB... however, I'm afraid we will do nothing but bring in some castoff's for show only. Oh well... hope for the best and expect the worst has been my philosophy for the past 47 years.
Tebow must be traded to Jacksonville. Gabbert is not the answer. Tebow will help Jacksonville on and off the field.
yea, i typed that wrong. point is woddy can give them 1 more year and not have to pay their contracts and a new gm/coach i don't think in needed a emocon though
If I was GM of the jets after the butt gate game. I would start cutting guy's that are useless and overpaid. Who cares if you gotta pay them. There is no way of getting around it. Promote PS players to see what they can do.
I predict the "Ugly scenario" will happen. The "unmentionable player" will be starting at qb with a lot of other changes on the roster and coaching staff. Except that the "Ugly scenario" will not be not be as ugly as the one that is happening now.
My feeling is Woody is far too 'hands on' to blow up the team. Woody is in on every personnel decision Tanny/Rex make. Woody and Tanny meet EVERY DAY. They've both said so. Favre? Woody thumbs up. Sanchez? Woody thumbs up. Sparano? Woody thumbs up. Santonio? Woody thumbs up. Tebow? Woody thumbs up, maybe even more. Whatever happens to Revis? Woody 2 thumbs up. so on and so on I think Woody likes the fact that Tanny and him are close and Tanny has no 'public problem' with running things past Woody. In short, this is Woody's team as much if not more than Tanny/Rex's team. Woody is a 'Jerry Jones' who hired Tanny to make all the phone calls and figure out the math. This, plus a NYC Superbowl right around the corner, says to me that Woody is going to ride the horse that brought him. Giddie up.
Good post. I was talking to my brother this AM (huge Jets fan) and we were trying to figure out WWWD? A. Will Woody believe Tanny when he says Revis and Holmes ruined the season and save both him and Rex? B. Or, if under more pressure from Woody, will he throw Rex under the bus to save his own ass? C. Or, will Woody clean house? Woody did fire Mangini after a 9-7 season, so he's not some completely weak figure. Or did Tanny encourage Woody to make the bold move of firing Mangini to save himself? Nice job with the original post, Brad. FWIW, I'd LOVE to be able to listen in on Tanny's cell calls.
This is a well-thought out post by its own right, but I do not think the "good" part of the solution is actually what is going to happen. I don't think the 'bad' and 'ugly' depict the situation correctly either - I see something much scarier than that, to put it shortly. As any savvy football fan should know by now, there are two distinct models of running an organization, shooting for the big one. (It does not apply to other sports, but only to NFL, mind you.) First is, of course, building a team that can sustain success for a long period of time. Cowboys of the past (Landry era) and Steelers of the past (Knolls era) belong to this regime. I would like to put Patriots of late, but their defense is way too shaky to sustain anything significant come playoff time, and their OL is not built for all-weather situation. They will be the kings of regular season, but they will always suffer come the postseason. The other is... loading up on a talent for a short period of time, gaining huge advantage during that small window - then spiking, getting ready for the next 'load up.' Other than Patriots and Packers of late, this seems like the regular modus operandi for a common team. (Raiders during Callahan era, Bucs SB run, Rams during their 'greatest show on turf' era, etc etc) What's curious is, Jets seem to be following the latter model. (Jets had their shot for two years.) If indeed that is the model they are using, then probably there won't be much change up top. Woody should be aware that spike year is coming up, and Tannenbaum should be aware of that too. Rex might get the boot, along with a lot of costly vets, but all in all, the general modus operandi will remain the same. Hence the reason to stay pessimistic. I have yet to see evidences that suggest otherwise. This sure seems much uglier than whatever br4d put up there, doesn't it?
