Politics Thread: Road to 2014 and 2016 Elections

Holy shit, can we at least let Congress waste our money for a week or two before we start talking 2016?

 

We should have a blocked initiative counter on top

 

Sean Hannity has evolved from a gorilla to an orangutang.

 

One big thing to consider in 2014 is the Senate Landscape. It very much favors Republicans maybe even more than than 2012 did. Democrats are defending 20 seats in 2014 and Republicans 13. But the 13 are in very red states are there are not many in danger. Susan Collins in Maine is likely the best chance for a Democrat takeover. While the Democrats have 4 races that will be vary hard to win in AK, NC, LA and SD and 4 very tough races in AR, MT, NH and VA.

While its early and 2012 looked just as bad if not worse it looks to be a very uphill battle. Winning in ND and Montana this year puts the Dems in such a better position going into 2014. They still may lose the senate but those two upsets this year might be the difference in keeping their majority.

 

^Mark Warner is the shit. He was nearly universally respected when he had to step down. I believe he left with like a 70% approval rating. Our rules on the governor not being allowed to run for re-election suck

 

Yep. And it would virtually guarantee him taking VA.

 

Translation: Hannity is tired of losing.

 

What a telling chart... All the "Red" states that hate the federal government rely on the Federal Government more than the "Blue" states. The irony.
If Republicans are such geniuses at running an economy how come they are the poor states?

 

http://whitepeoplemourningromney.tumblr.com/

 

This thread is about 6 months early. We'll have a better idea what 2014 will look like when June rolls around and the people in Washington have either managed the numerous issues facing the country next year or ducked them.

If the pols duck it's anybody's guess as to how that'll play out but I am guessing political funerals is likely to be the norm for 2014.

 

Faahhhk. Not yet. Br4d's right - six months.

But that Hannity idea isn't a new idea for conservatives. I've posted that idea in even more detail few times on this board. But, the problem was said best by Dick Morris - one of the few things he's said really well in several years: Democrats want illegal immigrants for their votes; Republicans, for their labor. Address those two truisms, lock the gate, and a plan is easy.

And stop calling it "amnesty." That's a Reagan-era term that didn't work. Call it something like, Transitional Residency Subject to Paying a Hefty Cover Charge and Not Fucking Up. Call it a "Blue Card," on your way to a Green Card, and then on your way to citizenship.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhendrickson/2012/06/07/are-the-10-poorest-u-s-states-really-republican/

Are the 10 Poorest U.S. States Really Republican?

“Most of the 10 poorest states are Republican” is a quote of CNN’s Jack Cafferty. It appeared in his “Cafferty File” blog last September 22, and was accompanied by the opinion, this is “something the GOP can’t be too comfortable with.” Indeed, in an election year, you can bet that Democrats will try to make hay with those data.

My previous column made the case that Democratic Party policies have induced the impoverishment of America’s poorest cities. Turnabout is fair play. If Republican policies have led to the economic stagnation of entire states, whereas Democrats are only responsible for ruining cities, then the Dems might have the stronger campaign talking point. Let’s examine the 10 poorest states to see if Republicans are to blame for their relative economic standing.

The poorest states, based on per capita income, are, from first to last: Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Louisiana, Montana, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and North Carolina. Of these, exactly half—Arkansas, Kentucky, Montana, North Carolina, and West Virginia—have Democratic governors and three have Democratic majorities in the lower house of their legislature, so these state governments can hardly be classified as completely Republican. On the other hand, only North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008, so in that sense, these states may be leaning Republican.


A common analytical error is the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” fallacy—“after this, therefore because of this.” For example, chronic federal deficits became chronic in the 1960s. What changed in America at that time? Alaska and Hawaii were added to the union in 1959 and 1960, respectively; therefore, the erroneous assertion to follow is that we need only expel those two states from the Union to solve our deficit spending problem. Absurd, right? Similarly, we can’t facilely assume that the lower per capita incomes in the 10 poorest states were caused by Republican policies.

Looking at the list of the 10 poorest states, all except Montana are east of (or border on) the Mississippi River. That means they are older states. Those nine also happen to be concentrated in the South. This is significant: They were all slaveholding states. They focused on producing commodities, whereas the northern states produced more value-added goods, more manufactured goods, more capital-intensive goods. Combined with national policies that conferred economic advantages on the relatively industrialized, higher capitalized North—policies that created some of the friction that led to the Civil War—the South’s economic development lagged.

As is common in societies based on producing raw commodities, the Old South had an elite that owned the land and employed a poorly educated workforce to plant, tend, and harvest the crops. Historically, then, education was of less importance, and therefore emphasized less, in the South than in the North—a trend that contributed ongoing economic advantages to the North.

After the Civil War, Republican carpetbaggers from the North kicked around the defeated South, further widening the economic gap between the two regions. One political consequence was that the Deep South was monolithically Democratic for the next century. Only in the last generation, when the secular counterculture took over the Democratic Party, did many Southerners finally bury the distant past and register as Republicans.

In short, those nine erstwhile slaveholding states have been lagging behind the northern states economically for two centuries. Just because one generation of leaning Republican has not eliminated a disparity that was entrenched for centuries, it is not an indictment of Republicans.

As for Montana, whose people elect Democrats and Republicans to statewide office with almost equal frequency, its economic status has a geographical cause. Montana is remote and its climate is harsh; consequently, it has never attracted enough people to achieve an economic “critical mass” to advance much beyond the commodity-related businesses of farming, ranching, and mining. That is why it has lagged economically—not because of anything Republicans have done.

Another common mistake in economic analysis, seen often, for example, in the (irrational) rationale that liberals use when resisting cuts in marginal tax rates, is to adopt a static rather than dynamic view—to see life and economic conditions in terms of snapshots rather than as a motion picture. In the politically motivated attempt to blame Republicans for the lower incomes in the 10 poorest states, CNN’s Cafferty and Democrats have taken one snapshot—of the census’ income statistics—and combined it with another snapshot—of current political leanings—to create the impression that Republican policies make America poorer.

The more important factor is not the economic ranking of states at a point in time, but the overall trends. An important article by John Merline compared the economic performance of blue states and red states during the presidency of Barack Obama. The trend of economic indicators clearly favors Republican states. Democratic states have experienced lower growth in both jobs and income in the last few years. Home prices have fallen further in blue states, and their unemployment rates are higher. In other words, a dynamic economic analysis of the states casts a far more favorable light on Republican states than static analysis. Since real life is dynamic, not static, Republicans can make the stronger case about which party is best suited to lead the way to greater prosperity.

The most fundamental difference between the data that conservatives prefer—that the 10 poorest cities are longtime Democratic strongholds—and the data that liberals will be more inclined to cite—that the 10 poorest states are predominantly Republican, is that conservatives can point to actual policies that Democrats implemented that contributed to the impoverishment of the cities, while the liberals cannot point to specific GOP policies that have caused the poorer states to lag behind.

The Democratic case is illusory and circumstantial; the Republican case is solid and substantial. However, in a country where so many people are economically and historically illiterate, combined with the human proclivity whereby “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest” (Paul Simon, “The Boxer”), the Democrats may be able to score some points with a hollow argument. The Republicans, though, have the facts on their side.

— Dr. Mark W. Hendrickson is an adjunct faculty member, economist, and fellow for economic and social policy with The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College.

 

noted conservative philosopher Paul Simon:

"I don't know why I spend my time writing songs I can't believe."

 

He was a Tory, though.

"To England, where my heart lies."

 

The Center for Vision and Values at Grove City College.