NFL Pocket-Passing Myth

Discussion in 'Tebowmania' started by Backup QB, Sep 1, 2012.

  1. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Jesus, you don't know wtf you are talking about.

    Last year, 12.41% of Brady's passes are thrown behind the LoS. 55.6% of his passes are from 1-10 yards from the LoS. Together, that's 68.04% of his passes that are 10 yards or less. Let's even add in 11 - 20 yards from the LoS. That's 24% of his passes. That puts him at 92.2% of passes are from behind the LoS to 20 yards.

    Let's look at this TD passes next. he threw a total of 38 of them. 1 TD thrown behind the LoS, 2.6%. 16 TDs thrown 1-10 yards, 42.10%. 15 of his TDs were 11-20 yards, 39.47%. In total, 84.21% of his TD passes traveled 20 yards or less.

    As for Brees, 90.67% of his passes are 20 yards or less. 66.8% of his passes are 10 yards or less.

    BOTH QBs are "dink and dunk" passers who play in systems designed around the short passing game. What makes them so deadly is the stupidly high percentage of passes they complete as they are very accurate.





    Doesn't surprise me to see that you've lost the plot and missed the point that was being made. I'd explain it to you again, but it's kind of pointless as there's no reason to suggest that you would get it this time either.


    He's a young QB who's still learning reads and contrary to your claim, he can indeed throw an accurate pass. And no, you twit, he did not play in a T-Bone offense. Again, demonstrating your complete and total ignorance of the subject.
     
  2. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Actually, yeah, his offense is based off the WCO and some of the concepts are very similar. Only real difference is the use of the Option.

    How often did they use zone blocking ? Think they were doing it before Alex Gibbs came down and taught them the outside zone/wide zone.

    http://smartfootball.com/run-game/a...ve-addazio-and-urban-meyers-old-florida-staff

    There was a good article about the development of Urban's Spread Option over at Smart Football. I'll see if I can dig it up.
     
  3. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    Interesting, I'm not sure that convinces me about certain aspects if the spread but I'm going to enjoy watching those videos with Gibbs.

    How can you convince me that a spread of the variety that Tim Tebow was successful in will be able to be employed without not only a complete change in overall philosophy from the drop-back passer (Brees, Rodgers and Brady, for example) but also a complete change in personnel and coaching?

    Because so far, aside from the most basic philosophies of WCO becoming a very tangential run-focused spread attack, I am struggling to see how it would work at all.
     
  4. joolander

    joolander New Member

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  5. Remarker

    Remarker Banned

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    Here's an interesting Belichick story, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/s...iots-sharpened-spread-offense-at-florida.html
     
  6. Apple Jack

    Apple Jack Banned

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  7. Zach

    Zach Well-Known Member

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    If you are ACCURATE then nobody cares.

    Hell, Steve Young and Joe Montana were both very mobile QBs themselves - and WCO favors mobile QBs as well.

    Tebow's problem is not that he is not a pocket passer. His problem is he can't hit the water out of boat if his life depended on it.

    (Watch the offensive success Cam Newton had as a rookie last year. He did hit 60% of his passes - which Tebow simply cannot do, if he tried.)
     
  8. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    OK, let's focus on one QB/System for now, just for clarity. Let's take New Orleans and Drew Brees. First thing is something that might shock you, which is that the Saints aren't as pass happy as some might believe. Their run/pass ratio is about 40%/60%. That said, last year, they ranked 6th in avg rushing yards per game with 132.9. So, it's not exactly Arena Football, contrary to popular opinion. They believe in having a strong running game. That slows down the defensive rush and prevents teams from just dropping 8 men in coverage on every down.

    Meyer believed in running the ball more, ground and pound style. That said, he still used a Spread passing attack. Where the Saints use short passes, Meyer's ran the ball or used shovel passes. The underlying philosophy is still the same. Spread the defense out and make them defend the entire field. In the process, create matchups that are favorable to the offense.

    The overall strategy/philosophy is the same, what is different are the tactics. This being the case, changes in personnel and/or coaching is actually pretty minimal. For the sake of argument, you could take the Spread Option that Tebow ran at Florida and simply change the run/pass ratio. Flip it from 55/45 run/pass to 45/55 run/pass, or even 40/60 run pass, which is what the Saints had last year.

    If so inclined, you could also use shorter passes in place of some of the runs. The "system" doesn't preclude that at all. Basically, all you are doing is changing the running game from I formation or Pro set to running it from the Shotgun and adding the option component. Or, as with Chris Leak, you run Option plays, but the QB rarely keeps it. The defense still has to respect and cover him just in case.

    Chris Leak is actually a perfect example. He was a "pocket passer" and Urban put him into a Spread Option system and they did just fine.
     
  9. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    The reason Tebow can't hit 60% of his passes, in my opinion, is that he's completely overhauled his mechanics and he's still adjusting / working on them. In college, he was a 66.4% passer for his career.

    And don't even try to bring up "smaller passing windows" because most of Tebow's misses last year and this year have been when throwing to wide open receivers.
     
    #49 Demosthenes9, Sep 1, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2012
  10. Backup QB

    Backup QB Active Member

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    Good article, Remarker.

    What that indicates to me are two things... Belichick in 2007 almost went undefeated using a different offense than most, if not all teams in the NFL. He went against the traditional thinking.

    Second, he's wargamed Tebow pretty heavily. No doubt, that had a big influence on how the Patriots were able to keep him in check in the playoff game. Then again, when Brady throws 5 TDs, it is hard for anyone to beat them.

    Cam Newton, for all his success had a better team/coaching and less wins than Tebow. However, I think he is going to be a great QB, and should win a SB at some point. I love watching Cam play, just like I love watching Tebow play. Alex Smith should have gone to the SB last year, that was a special teams meltdown that kept them out of it last year, and he is no Tom Brady or Peyton Manning passing wise. Harbaugh just knew how to utilize him.

    Shaq is one of the greatest centers to play the game. He didn't have half the offensive skills as Abdul Jabbar, Ewing or Olajuwon, but his coaches were not idiotic enough to ask him to shoot fade away jumpshots or sky hooks. They saw him for what he was... a huge body, power dunker, shot blocker, and rebounder. It would have been foolish to ask him to be anything else, and not necessary. Sure it would have been nice if he could hit 75% of his free throws, but his mechanics were awful. Painful to watch. It would have been nice if he could shoot like Dirk Nowitzki. But he didn't need it. These cookie cutter approaches to players is BAD coaching, IMO.

    I am an Army officer, and I have Soldiers who are good and bad at different things. It is my job to find their strengths and weaknesses and build a team that is successful so that the mission gets accomplished. I don't have the luxury of drafting my players. Similarly, they are stuck with me and my strengths and weaknesses. The best leaders adapt and overcome. When lives are on the line, you have no choice.

    Sorry for the basketball and military analogies, but I am a basketball player and a Soldier.
     
  11. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    Where do you get this stuff how much twisting do you have to do. Saints run variant of the Parcels Perkins offense not Urban Meyers WCO. Yes 60% passing is pass happy in the NFL.

    The spin and crap you are coming up with lately is simply remarkable. Are there similarities sure it is football nothing is really that new what is new is the rules keep changing so the offenses and defenses have to adapt.

    Mobile QBs are great Fran Tarkington one of the best scramblers of all time but also a great thrower.

    You cannot call Tebow a mobile QB Tebow is a runner that throws very now and again. It is not because run first QBs have never been tried it is because run first Qbs do not win.


    If a runner can become a mobile Qb they have a chance a lot of them have been successful

    1. Steve Young
    2. Mcnair
    3. Staubach
    4. Cunningham
    5. Elway
    6. Vick (still not convinced he can throw well enough)
    7. Mcnabb
    8. Brunell

    Stay a runner I cannot name one successful long term run first QB please help me out.
     
  12. joolander

    joolander New Member

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    The proof that John Fox ran a T-Bone offense with Tebow. There's also a press conference that he talks about it. i cant find the video though
     
  13. joolander

    joolander New Member

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    Passing windows are a huge adjustment in the NFL. The fact that Tebow cannot strike an accurate pass like Drew Brees is a huge problem. Tebow also misses catches in traffic.
     
  14. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    You have a valid points saying that if the deck was stacked for option/run first QBs they would probably win a SB. But the real question in my mind is if it is worth it for a team to try and run that type of offense and whether it would be successful in this NFL?

    As of right now, the rules favor the short passing attack. You can't do much to the WR, you can run wide receivers into defenders if not blatant, QB's are protected in the pocket below the knees and above the shoulders. QB's remain unprotected outside the pocket. When they are running they are only protected by the slide. The slide places the ball where the ball is, not where their feet are and not where the slide ends up.

    Right now, there is nothing to influence a team to switch to that style of offense. The premeir offense that would benefit most is a short passing attack. This doesn't mean only passing, but that style of passing is most effective. Now remember since NFL things can happen without the offense's control and one game playoffs, the most effective can work over 16 games, but may not show up in the playoffs.

    Now speaking of run first QB's, I put old Vick, Tebow, and Newton into that category. I want to wait on RGIII but he will most likely fall into that. Now there are athletic QB's like Ben, Rodgers, Romo, etc. These are QB's who can run, but they are not run first.

    With the run first type of QB's you have to worry about winning early. Speed is one of the first things that goes for skill players. So if a run first QB loses his speed, he loses the big advantage he had over DL and LBs. Now he has to resort to more of a passing attack. Another thing is in college, most QB's who run the spread and run a lot, aren't very good passers. They can make plays with their feet when they can't make a throw and can have success doing this. They come into the NFL with not as good mechanics as the pocket passers. While a certain level of passing could work in college, that might not necessairly work in the NFL. So not only would they have to improve their passing for the NFL, they would need to keep their speed.

    So in the end, yes if you stacked the odds so there are 30 spread/option/run first QB offense, they would most likely win. But, I don't see the benfit for a team to doing this. Also, to properly use this type of offense, they would probably have to scrap a lot of their team besides QB. One of the benefits of a pro style offense or "traditional" offense is that the terminology changes but the basic ideas stay the same. So players have less trouble transitioning from one traditional to another.

    Again, you are in correct if there were more types of that offense we would see a SB, I just don't think the benefits outweigh the risk of making that type of switch. Especially with coaches on short leashes and the media being a 24/7 critique of what a coach does.
     
  15. dusterfan

    dusterfan New Member

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    Abyzmul mentioned the same thing IE rebuilding the team to suit. I don't know as much about the finer points of the game, but the biggest thing I can see a team needing is non-diva receivers willing to really block. Maybe slightly more mobile lineman?
     
  16. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    You're still throwing out this bullshit that Tebow is a "run first" QB. I have proven repeatedly that this is not the case. We aren't talking about Tommy Frazier here.

    Secondly, don't know how in the word you would even begin to claim that the Saints run a variant of the E.P. offense. They are a hybrid of the WCO and the Coryell.
     
  17. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    You missed my point. If most of Tebow's incompletions last year were when trying to hit covered receivers with highly accurate passes, then the "tight NFL windows" might be the blame.

    BUT, Tebow had guys that were open by 5 yards, and he missed them by 6. He never had that problem in college. If a receiver was open, he'd hit them. Not with the accuracy of Aaron Rodgers, but he didn't bounce the balls in the dirt or throw 5 yards wide.

    His passing this year has been much more accurate, and more importantly, much more consistent.
     
  18. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Don't be confused by what Denver put on the field last year. Sure, it was college, but Tebow threw for about 3000 yards per season in his 3 years as a starter, and that was in Meyer's "run focused" version of the Spread Option. Thing is, you can flip the run/pass ratio and put more emphasis on the passing game if you want. Ie. go from 55/45 run/pass to 45/55 run pass.

    People see "Spread Option" and they get visions of Nebraska running the ball 80+% of the time. That doesn't have to be the case. "Option" is just a method of running the ball that gives defenses another thing to worry about and to have to defend. It would be used in lieu of any teams "normal" way of rushing.
     
  19. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Again with the "run first" QB. Robert Griffin threw for over 4000 yards last year, and ran for another 700 on 179 attempts. Does that 700 yards make him a "run first" QB ??

    A number of you guys are conflating QB's who can run, with "run first" QBs. They aren't the same thing, not by a long shot.
     
  20. Backup QB

    Backup QB Active Member

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    Yeah, I think Tommie Frazier is a great example, and one I've used many times in the past. He was great to watch, and ran that offense exactly how he was asked to. He was a run first QB though. Tebow was a pass-first QB through and through in college, as evidenced by his gaudy passing stats.
     

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