If Our QB Play By Week 8 is Atrocious...

Here's an interesting exercise and something to keep us all busy in this boring offseason for the next few days.
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I have a theory that due to the change in the trade deadline from Week 6 to Week 8, the NFL's trading activity will show a major shift towards the trends that occur near trading deadlines in the NBA and MLB. That trend is that team's who feel that they are playing in a lost season will be trying to sell players to gain draft picks or young players to build around for the next season.

These players, by my theory, will either be players in their contract years, players who have lost their starting jobs, players whose salaries/contracts are way too big for a team not headed to the playoffs, and to a lesser extent veterans in general because what is the point in paying a man big money on a team that sucks.

The teams most desperate to "sell" will be the ones who are 0-7 or 1-6 heading into Week 8 --- these teams' seasons are lost and they will likely need to rebuild in the offseason. Thus draft picks are better than expendable players or big contracts, especially for frugal owners. (Previously, the worst a team could go into the trading deadline was 0-5 and even then there was a chance you could end 9-7 and make the playoffs. More likely you were 1-4 and 2-3 and you had no idea if you were out or not. 0-7, 1-6, and 2-5 are much clearer indications that you are out especially since there are only 9 games left vs. 11 games left under the previous rule).
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For this exercise, if our QB play is atrocious coming out of Week 7 but our team is still in the hunt thanks to our great defense...we could possibly be buyers of a QB for a team that is "selling." I've compiled a list of teams likely to be selling at the deadline and players of interest on each team that are most likely deemed to be "sellable", but I have not done it yet for the QB position because in most cases if you are that bad it is in large part because of the QB. There are a few interesting circumstances however that we should look at:

QB Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers should once again own the NFC West, and it's very possible the Seahawks pile up losses early. The Rams could emerge under Fisher with a much improved defense and it's possible the Cardinals can win some games thanks to their skill position players on offense (not QB) and their defense. The most interesting part of this one scenario is that Flynn has not pulled out into the de-facto starting QB role yet. Perhaps he will in training camp, but I still don't think that's a sure thing. I don't think that mainly because Pete Carroll never seemed on board with this signing -- it was a GM decision to get Flynn after he was passed on by other teams and he was signed for a multi-year but reasonable deal for what could be a "franchise QB". Carroll still loves T-Jax and LOVES Russell Wilson even more. To give a 3rd round rookie QB 1st team reps in an even carousel with Flynn and T-Jax says a lot about how Carroll views Wilson -- as a starter sooner rather than later (perhaps after one season on the bench).
If the Seahawks are floundering near the trade deadline, Carrol and Co. may opt to put Flynn on the block and try to pick up a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick and begin building a contender around Russell Wilson. If Flynn is floundering or has lost -- or has never gained -- the starting job after Week 7, then the Seahawks will almost definitely be selling him even if the team is in prime playoff position. And the price will be much lower. This is a situation to monitor. Flynn is lightyears better than a floundering Sanchez and Tebow and could excel with weapons like Holmes, Hill, Schilens, and Keller. Our arsenal is a little GB like in what we can do, with Holmes in Greg Jennings' role, Hill in Jordy Nelson's role, Schilens in James Jones' role, and Keller in Jermichael Finley's role.
We want to run mainly anyway and then let the QB be a game manager, and Flynn seems like a perfect guy to do just that.
Price: A 3rd round pick should do it if the season is in the tubes, and as low as a 5th round pick should secure his services if he is overtaken by TJax or Wilson.

QB Matt Hasselback, Tennessee Titans. The Titans could also find themselves in hot water coming out of Week 7. The Texans' own this division, and it's possible that Andrew Luck and the Colts can have a nice start like Matt Ryan did as a rookie with the Falcons or Mark Sanchez did once upon a time with the Jets as a rookie. I'm not ready to automatically rule out the Jaguars simply because their skill position players are now elite all the way around with Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, and Lee Evans/Mike Thomas in slot, MJD and Rashad Jennings at RB, and Marcedes Lewis at TE. Their O-line is healthy and if Mike Mularkey can get Gabbert to remain poised in the pocket like he got Matt Ryan (Mularkey came from Atlanta) to in his 2nd season, then the Jaguars could surprise a lot of people.
If the Titans are 2-5 and looking like they have a much better shot at finishing in the bottom of the AFC South than making a playoff push, then they will likely be looking to "sell" quite a few players to gain draft picks to build around last year's 1st rounder Jake Locker. It is also possible that Locker overtakes Hasselback before Week 8, in which case the Titans may be willing to sell Hasselback for the right price regardless of their playoff standing. Probably a little less willing to trade him if they are firmly in the playoff hunt since he'd be a crucial backup QB if Locker ever went down. If Locker overtakes him AND their season is in the tubes, then he could be had for peanuts.
Hasselback has always been a game managing QB, and I'd trust him to manage this offense for a season or two and still have a shot at advancing deep in the playoffs until we find our new franchise QB. He'd have better receiving weapons than he's had in a while with Holmes, Hill, and Keller mainly, but also Schilens and Kerley as role guys.
Price: A 4th round pick if Locker never overtakes him but the season is still lost or if Locker overtakes him and they are in the playoff hunt, but as low as a 7th round pick if Locker overtakes him AND the season is lost.

QB Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals. Not as inspiring as the top two, but the Cardinals could definitely be a team that falters early on in 2012. Despite having Fitz and Floyd at WR and Beanie and Williams at RB, the QB play has been a big question mark and could hold the team back. For that reason we may want to avoid this situation, but if our QB play is holding us back it is very plausible that Kolb would be an upgrade on Sanchez/Tebow. Kolb is locked in his own battle with John Skelton right now, but all reports suggest that he will open the season as the starter barring injury or an absolutely horrendous offseason -- the Cards don't want to close the book on the Kolb experiment just yet without giving him a chance to prove himself in games.
If he proves to be a liability in Arizona and if the team starts in a 1-6 or 2-5 hole, then they should definitely be moving to John Skelton by Week 8 or sooner. In this scenario, Kolb will be worth mere pennies due to the team's record and his contract. For that reason this trade is a little tricky because in a short amount of time to get things done we'd have to get Kolb to restructure his deal. I do remember reading something that the Cardinals already paid most of the guaranteed money, so we may not have to, but I am unsure. This is a little less appealing because Kolb is a QB who has yet to really prove himself, and we'd be trading for him because the Kolb experiment blew up in Arizona. He'd be the cheapest of the 4 real options I'm listing though, so it's low risk high reward.
Kolb could feasibly succeed in NY because Sparano would ask him to lean on the running game, and we'd manipulate him to the best of our abilities to get the ball to Holmes, Hill, and Keller in spots that he is comfortable with. Kolb can at least make the throws which is something that Sanchez regularly struggles with. The light could also flip on in New York playing for Rex Ryan vs. playing in a QB battle in Arizona under the strict Whisenhunt.
Price: If the Cardinals season is lost but Kolb showed to be pretty good, a 6th round pick should get it done. If Kolb was horrendous heading into the Week 8 deadline than a 7th round pick should get it done. If Skelton wins the battle before the season starts and Kolb is the backup, then his price would be a little higher because either they are doing well and they want to keep a QB as a backup for their playoff chances or Skelton does poorly and they then bench him for Kolb. If they are in the hunt, the price could jump to a 4th if they are comfortable with another backup or he could be off the block. If Skelton is benched and the season is lost, a 5th round pick should make it a deal.

 

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers. This is a more exciting option, but much less proven. All reports out of San Francisco is that Alex Smith continues to further himself from Josh Johnson and Colin Kaepernick and Scott Tolzien in offseason practices. While at first it seemed like post-Peyton Manning pursuit hype to boost Smith's morale, it is now defintely legitimate fanfare and the team is excited by his progression in Harbaugh's sytem. People forget Smith has never gone an NFL season with the same offensive coordinator -- that is HORRIFIC for the development of a QB. Smith could turn into a Rich Gannon-type thanks to Harbaugh's steady and spectacular presence in SF for the next few years.
The 49ers took Harbaugh in last year's 2nd round to groom him to be the franchise QB -- he has amazing physical tools both with his arm and speed, but he came into the league raw as a fundamental passer and also raw as a QB after playing in a Pistol offense at Nevada. He did not seize the job last year as expected, and this offseason he has only fallen further down the depth chart. The 49ers brought in Harbaugh favorite Josh Johnson, who played under Harbaugh at San Diego State where Johnson set many school passing and TD records. By all accounts, Joshson has firmly established himself as the #2 QB leaving Colin as the #3 QB. Some other reports speculate that Kaepernick would be practicing as the #4 QB behind Scott Tolzien who the team is high on if not for his high round pedigree from last year.
This is a more interesting decision because it involves a young QB who still has a lot of work to do and may bust. I would not myself go for this option, but I could see certain teams in the NFL without an heir apparent liking this option very much (ex. Buffalo Bills). Kaepernick has the arm strength to own the winds and foul weather of the New Meadowlands, and he has the ability to extend the play with his legs to find Keller or Holmes freelancing for a first down -- or run it himself. Remember, the premise is that we are in the thick of the playoff chase and the only thing holding us back is atrocious QB play from Sanchez and Tebow. If that's the case, we aren't going to get worse QB play from Kaepernick so there's only upside on a trade here.
Price: If the 49ers are selling him, it means they've given up on him as their QB of the future and Harbaugh admits its a mistake which I think sooner or later they will. As a 2nd round pick falling down the depth chart, a 4th round pick should definitely get it done. If he falls to #4, then a 5th round pick. This one is a little unlike the other scenarios because the 49ers would have to be doing well with one of the other QB options to be willing to sell Kaepernick. If they were doing poorly with Smith and Johnson, they would want to see what Kaepernick could do instead of trading him.

Honorable Mention candidates:
QB Jason Campbell, Chicago Bears. The Bears are unlikely to be out of the hunt at any point this season and have real Super Bowl aspirations, making their top back up QB Campbell likely off-limits. If the season is somehow lost, then Campbell goes on the block for a mid-round pick to a QB needy team. Of if they are doing very well and feel very good about the other QBs in their arsenal, then a 5th round pick should get a team Campbell's services for the rest of the season.

QB Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins. This name is unfortunately off-limits for the Jets, and Moore may be the best available QB for "sale" near the trade deadline. Moore has the tools to win games and some film analysts think he has what it takes to make every throw and has shown it consistently in games.....it's just that the Dolphins stink. The Dolphins are a team that is likely to be looking at a 1-6 or 2-5 start and a lost season by the trade deadline, in which case they'd probably be willing open up shop to net draft picks to build around Ryan Tannehill for the future. Moore would be the first one on the block, along with Reggie Bush, in this scenario. A 5th round pick should get a team Moore only because there could be quite a few suitors for him, some looking for a great backup QB option for a potential SB run.

QB Ryan Mallett, New England Patriots. Another name this is off-limits for the Jets. Mallett, if put on the block, becomes a very interesting trade target. A team looking to get him is likely to looking to grab a backup QB for the present and view Mallett as a starter in the future. It is also possible that the team looking to get him is 3-4 and needs a new QB and thinks Mallett can inject life into the offense. Mallett has all of the physical tools, except for mobility, to excel as a QB in the NFL in the right system. He'd be a great fit for the Jets, so it's a shame the Patriots are in the same division.
If Brian Hoyer is still on the team and Mallett is still #3, the Patriots would be looking to get a 3rd round pick in return. If for some reason the Pats' season is lost, this would actually hamper a team's pursuit of Mallett because either Brady is injured or maybe the light flips off for him -- this is a very, very unlikely scenario. More likely is that the Patriots are cruising and Mallett is becoming a locker room sore because he isn't playing and wants to be traded. A 4th may get it done if he wears out his welcome with the team.

QB Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars. This one is relatively simple: if Gabbert emerges as a true franchise QB and the Jaguars win games early on because of his improved, and possibly outstanding play, then Henne would go on the block for a QB needy team. Henne is still young and has a cannon arm and would be an ideal fit to join the Jets and Sparano if our QB situation is atrocious. The Jaguars are likely not going to seriously in the playoff hunt this season anyway, but good play for Gabbert would make Henne expendable for a draft pick to continue to building Gabbert's team -- Henne was signed as a doomsday scenario in case Gabbert goes full retard.....and we all learned in Tropic Thunder that you never, ever go full retard. The latter is more plausible than the former, even with Jacksonville's new and potentially elite WR core. I'm hoping Gabbert does well, because Henne on the block is a good thing for everyone.
If Gabbert becomes Matt Ryan 2.0 under Mularkey, Henne is probably with a 4th round pick. If the Jaguars are struggling under Gabbert, Henne will be hard to get because he has the support of some higher up staff in the building and they'd be calling for Henne to go in. The key here will be an "okay" start such as 3-4 with very promising QB play from Gabbert -- then Henne could be had for a 4th or 5th round pick.

QB Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns. I have no faith in him, but McCoy is already on the block. It's possible he's an upgrade by Week 8 if we need a QB, but I can't see him making a difference for us. A 7th round pick would get him for any team interested.

QB Matt Leinart, Oakland Raiders. Another QB I have no faith in, but Leinart should be available at any time for a 6th round pick. If the Raiders season goes down the tubes, then the pick becomes a 7th even if he becomes the starter. Kubiak was high on Leinart in Houston and thought he turned the corner in his career, but he got injured on his first play and the world will never know. He's now stuck behind Oakland's franchise QB Carson Palmer and keeping the #2 QB seat warm for Terrelle Pryor until he is polished and ready for game action. Leinart is kind of just there in Oakland, and his purpose is to be a viable option in case Palmer gets injured. If they are in the hunt and Palmer goes down, Leinart may become untouchable if he plays well in a start prior to the deadline. If the Raiders are in it and Pryor has taken over #2 QB by then, it's back down to a 7th. A few things to monitor here, but if a team is a Leinart fan and thinks he can do it...then he's a cheap date for a season.


This has been a GM article.

Thanks for reading.

 

Um, uh.....ok?

It really started with the thesis that the change to the trade deadline would lead to teams selling players and contracts to gain draft picks in lost seasons like in the other major pro sports leagues, the MLB and NBA.

Then applied specifically to the Jets, I thought of what could the Jets be shopping for near the deadline. I'm concerned with the QB position because Tebow is not an answer at QB and Sanchez has struggled at minicamp. If our starting QB is struggling at minicamp in a controlled environment, I do not have much faith in him in an in-game situation when he is going to be getting hit to the ground and teams are dialing up packages to confuse him after game planning all week.

Thus, if we are 3-4 let's say, we could be in the market to trade a late round pick for a guy like Matt Flynn or Matt Hasselback. It's a low risk, high reward proposition. If we get to that point and the QB play is horrific, the book on Sanchez is closed after this season anyway. Rex and co. could not possibly continue to say Mark is our guy, they'd have to find a way to get a new franchise QB in the offseason. That does not mean we have to throw our season away waiting for that guy, as either veteran could feasibly steer the team well into the postseason with the pieces we have.

There are of course other positions we could be looking to "buy" at the trade deadline: a RB, a RT, and an OLB.

A RB example: if the Rams are 0-7 or 1-6 heading into the deadline, they could look to the future sooner and get 2nd rounder Pead more reps at RB. That would make expensive RB Steven Jackson expendable, and why pay him for a lost season instead of getting a mid-round pick to continue building the offense with? Jets would give a 4th + 6th for Jackson, both sides are happy.

A RT example: the Panthers could be winning or losing, but what's more important is who is starting at RT. Byron Bell filled in admirably at RT for the injured Jeff Otah last season and Bell effectively won the starting job. The Panthers are making Otah win it back from Bell, and he may not do so because he is having trouble holding up health-wise. Otah could use a period of being shut down to fully heal, or perhaps a change of scenery and medical staff. If Bell is doing very well at RT, there is no need to keep Otah and his salary which is high for a former 1st round pick on the end of his rookie deal. They'd be unlikely to re-sign him in this scenario. If the Panthers season is lost and Bell is playing very well at RT, then Otah could be had for a cheaper price. A 3rd round pick should do it if their season is going fine, and a 5th should do it if the season is lost and Bell is the starting RT.

An OLB example: this is another example that has less to do with wins and losses and more to do with who's the starter. Cliff Avril is the franchise player of the Lions but the teams have yet to strike a long term deal. At this point it is very possible he is forced to play out the season on the tag. The Lions don't want to pay him huge money because although he is very good, they really like Willie Young who is younger and is 2nd on the depth chart at RDE. They tied up big money in Calvin Johnson, will have to tie up big money in Stafford, and will have to tie up big money in Ndamukong Suh and potentially Nick Fairley after his rookie deal. To also tie up Avril in a big deal, while they may have a much cheaper and as effective answer on the roster, may not be a prudent football move for the Lions. If Willie Young uses the offseason to overtake Avril for the starting RDE job, or if Avril struggles due to missing the offseason and Young is moved up to #1 in-season before the deadline, Avril will likely go on the block since they would be losing Avril at the end of the season for nothing. If the Lions are struggling and out of the playoff picture at 2-5, then they may sell him anyway because they'd have no plans to re-sign him next year. A 3rd round pick would get the job done, but if the team is also struggling than it could drop to a 4th. I'm of the opinion that Avril is worth the high price, because he's the rare athlete that could excel as a 3-4 OLB with great movement skills and a top notch burst. He played LB in high school and started off as an OLB at Purdue before moving to DE and playing in a hybrid role. We're talking about a 6'3, 253 lb defender with 4.51 40 speed, 4.31 short shuttle quicks and sub 7 second 3 cone drill agility. Not to mention 27 bench reps and a 32.5" vertical. Unlike Gholston, whom these measurables may remind you of, Avril is an actual force -- racking up 11 sacks and 7 forced fumbles last year to go with 4 passes broken up, an interception and a defensive touchdown....and that's with his hand in the dirt. The year before he had 8.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 5 passes broken up. Imagine that kind of player in a Rex Ryan defense as the edge rusher.....Ryan would once again have a Terrell Suggs-type of pass rushing OLB to utilize. I envision his best season yet, 14-16 sacks, 6-7 forced fumbles, 2-3 interceptions, 6-7 passes broken up, 1-2 touchdowns. He always had tackle counts in the mid-30s and low 40s because that's what 4-3 DEs have. As a 3-4 OLB, you could be looking at 60-80 tackles. That's DPOY year status.