The way the AFC East looks right now the season is going to look something like this: Patriots 12-4 #2 or 3 seed Everybody else 20-28 no playoffs. There's no reason to believe that the AFC East is anything other than a .500 collection next year. The wildcards are likely to come out of the AFC North and AFC West, with Peyton Manning in Denver alongside San Diego and Oakland and the two perennial power houses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore trying to fight off the Bengals. That's two wild card slots likely going to teams outside the AFC East. So if you believe that the Patriots are still the class of the division then it's highly unlikely that either the Jets or the Bills makes the playoffs next year and unless you think the Dolphins flatout suck, which is always possible, it's going to be really hard for the Jets and Bills to get to 16 wins between them. That's just what it is. If I had to guess right now I'd call the AFC East something like this next year: Patriots 12-4 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Fins 5-11 That's kind of what it looks like to me although it's always possible that the wins on the back 3 teams switch around a little. If Tom Brady gets hurt and the Pats fall to 9-7 or so? Well that's the scenario in which either the Bills or the Jets might win 10+ and go to the playoffs. I mean is it possible that the Bills or Jets can win 10+ and make the playoffs alongside a Pats team winning 10 or 11 games? Sure, it's possible, but only if you believe the AFC North or AFC West is going to underperform and open up the space to do that.
Good post. To break it down a little further, you figure AFC South just sends the Texans. The AFC North will have one of the three, Cincy, BAL, and Pitt, and the AFC West will have at least DEN. Then you throw in NE. Those are 5 teams. Going off of my predictions now, I think you can rule out the Dolphins, Jaguars, Browns, Colts. That leaves OAK, SD, KC, NYJ, BUF, TEN, and the 2 AFC North teams fighting for 2 WC spots. 8 teams for 2 spots unless Bal, Den, NE, Pitt, Hou falls off dramatically.
While I generally agree that the AFC East isn't as likely to be sending two teams as it has been in the last few years, I'm not at all ready to appoint the Broncos as an automatic powerhouse just because they have Peyton. Keep in mind the man has had several neck injuries in the past year. And just for the hell of it, the Ravens lost Suggs for the year and Ed Reed has said he isn't all in to play next year. I don't know, I think it's possible that they slip, and I'm not sold on Cinci, so the AFC North isn't a lock like it has been in my opinion. The Wild Card is named appropriately; a whole bunch of teams, likely including the Bills and Jets, will be fighting for two spots.
But you would say Denver is at least in the WC hunt as of right now and so would BAL and Cincy? We can't rule them out. I agree it is the "wild" card so it is a whole bunch of teams, but no longer can I say the Jets are the class of the WC teams as 10 or I thought they would be in 11.
I think both the North and West have strong divisions, but that could work out for the Bills. If they all beat up on each other that might lower their win totals and give the Bills a chance to sneak in.
Well, the Bills or the Jets could sneak in if 9-7 will get them there and the tie-breakers are in their favor. It's just not likely in my opinion. I think you get a double-digit wildcard team out of the North and probably out of the West this season.
Agreed. I'd sum it up as follows; the jets are no longer in the upper class of wild card teams but as a whole, I'd say there's more wild card parity, if that makes sense. In recent years past I would have proclaimed the AFC North and AFC East as almost definite wild card bearing divisions. It will certainly be interesting to see how teams like the Bills, the Chargers (great draft), the Bengals (whether they're for real), the Raiders (Palmer?), the Titans (Locker?), etc. pan out this year.
People give the AFC west too much respect. Every team in that division is dog shit, Denver included. Unless Peyton regains his uttmost elite form, the AFC west is only sending 1 team to the playoffs. That said I could see 3 NFC north teams making it, assuming Cinci doesn't regress big-time, which is absolutely possible . As for the Bills, they might have a top 16 defense (sorry im not buying them as a top 10 defense yet), and a top 20 offense. This is probably the most talented Bills team in a long long time, but they have plenty of weaknesses. QB isnt talented, huge question marks @ hb (yes FJ is good, but hes also 31 coming off a major injury), and questions @ WR with some new young guys on the OL . While their draft on paper looked impressive, that doesnt mean all these picks will be homeruns
I agree. I think there will probably only be one team from that division, and I think it is Kansas City (surprise pick). Their roster is absolutely stacked. I look at the Broncos and I just dont think they have a very good team. Their running backs are terrible, and for this first time in his career, Peyton will be learning a new offense, with new terminology, and have new receivers. And that's not even counting his physical ailments. I dont like their defense either. I agree with this completely. The Bills obviously have weaknesses, but they certainly arent at RB and the o-line. Those are strengths, for sure. Fred Jackson and Spiller are up there with teams that have some of the best 1-2 punches. I've already said enough about the o-line. And there are no young guys except for the LT.
When I look at the Bills and Jets, I see their teams like the record you have, somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7. However, when you add in the favorable schedules both of them have this year, it is easily possible to lose a bunch of division games and still get to 10 wins for either team.
Yeah, not sure why Raiders and even KC are part of these discussions. SD chokes every year and its not going to be any different this year. Raiders don't have a QB, unless u think the two 1st rounder trade will suddenly become God. Palmer was awful before he went to Oakland. Then he got worse. Kansas City? Why? Denver will get in to the playoffs and do well IMO. Yeah Im not a Cincy fan either. Their losses last year = Ravens x 2, Steelers x 2, Broncos, 49ers, and Texans. Their wins? Browns x 2, Bills, Jags, Colts, Seahawks, Titans, Rams, and Cards. A combined record of 47-97 while they defeated ZERO playoff teams. And Andy Dalton in the pro bowl was a joke!
I think people are downplaying Manning's abilities. He doesn't need a RB to run his offense, Addai was often injured. He doesn't need to know his receivers. Tammy and White were largely unknown players to him and he turned them in to actual receivers. He has great pocket awareness, and is very smart. He doesn't need to put up MVP performance to reach the playoffs. Tebow didn't. I don't think he'll struggle in Denver. I think he'll turn them in to a solid all around team with potential to go deep in the playoffs.
All true, plus from what I've read he's basically been given the opportunity to help shape Denver's offense so it's not as though he's going into a completely unfamiliar system and trying to learn the ropes. I mean, I'm a Pats fan, but if he's healthy... it's Peyton freaking Manning. The Broncos will be better than 8-8 with Tebow.
Don't count out KC, they could rebound in a big way this year. The teams seems to respond better to Crennel than they did to Haley, and losing Charles, Moeaki, and Berry before the season got going was a huge blow. If they all come back healthy that's a team that can compete.
The Bills did not win one game last year where they didn't win the turnover battle. The only game they had the same amount of turnovers was the Redskins game. I don't see the Bills team that much improved where they can win games while losing the turnover battle. That's the true test as to whether a team is good or not. Playing a crappy game and still able to find a way to win.
I think the Bills are going to be more balanced on offense this season since they won't be playing from behind as often as they were last season. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw fewer passes, probably in the 500 range for the season, and to throw fewer Int's in the process. He threw a lot of the pickes he threw last season because he had no choice but to put the ball in the air due to the game situation. I have no problem seeing the Bills at 8-8 and I think that's probably where they wind up. They might win a game less or a game more but unless they catch the injury bug or have somebody come out of nowhere to establish star level performance they're going to be middle of the pack.
Their LT is a rookie who everyone projected as guard. I LOVE Glenn as a prospect, but as an interior guard, not an LT. If you dont think thats going to give them fits on the OL youre wrong. And Spiller isnt a great HB, not by any measure. The guy has potential to maybe be a Sproles if hes lucky, but in two seasons he hasnt shown much. He beat up a coulple of bad defenses, and only had 500 rushing yards last year. That doesnt make it a strength And Fred Jackson is gonna be 32 next season, coming off a serious injury. Theres a reason his new contract is only nettin him an avg of 3million a year, and the Bills can cut him after this season. Youre also forgetting that the Bills OL has been a wreck for many of the last few years, and last year was a pretty good one for them. So if I were you I definitely wouldnt expect the Bills to be a top 10 OL next year, especially with a rookie guard as your LT.
The bills season fell apart when jackson got hurt. Spiller couldnt fill his shoes at all. Thats a lot of question marks at rb. An under achieving first round rb and a 31 year old rb whos never shown he can carry the load and is coming off of a major injury. Your argument that Spiller had a great stretch of games against shitty defenses sounds as legit as the jets fans who thought McKnight was good because he torched the bills awful d for 150 yards. Spiller was just another complete waste of a bills first round pick. They obviously didnt see the talent they had in jackson when they could have used that pick on an actual need. Like a good o lineman. I cant believe you watched bills games last year and actually think their oline was any good. Credit needs to be given to gailey for making his offense work with such a sub par offensive line and a qb with no arm - lots if quick slants on 3 step drops. This is the difference in 2 offensive coordinators. Schottenheimer had 3 pro bowl o lineman (with the worst rt in the nfl) but would not adjust his offense to work with the ability of his players. Ive always respected gailey as an OC. Hes cosistantly made crap qbs look good. Kind of a thin mans andy reid.
I'm assuming he perceived the Bills having a good oline due to the lack of sacks given up. However, if he watched the games, he would see that the reason for that is the 3 step drop that Fitzpatrick implemented on most throws. No one had time to get to him. The Giants were the 1st team to exploit this by really jamming the receivers.
