#2 and #3 are strongly contradicting statements. First off, you say Mark will lose us 4-6 games and that there will be QB competition to a lesser effect. Then u say Mark will have a great year throwing over 4k yards due to an increased emphasis on the run game. I think you still didn't make ur point clear what you really want us to know. Will mark be great? If so, point two is invalid. There won't be Mark vs Tim. Do u think Sanchez will pass for 4k+ yards? If so, why do you reason the emphasis on run game for it? To top it off, you just said Mark will surprise, but the Jets opening schedule will suck. Again, your point #3 contradicts this.
I do think a new OC can improve our OL just by having plays that don't take so long to develop and a simpler scheme that doesn't have players thinking as much. We still have some plus players on the line for sure. I don't want to go into the year with Hunter/Ducasse/Howard at RT, but Ducasse and Howard have a chance to be starters. Hunter is better fit as a backup OL, as we've seen. Will Ducasse or Howard improve to the level that we need that will actually improve the line? We'll see. I wouldn't mind a blocking TE being brought in though... Or at least someone else to help out on the line, even if it's a lineman we line up at tight end sometimes. I know we did that with Ducasse last year. It's just hard to have faith in the young Jet linemen to be able to supplant Hunter (or Slauson) since we've barely seen them (Howard, Schlauderaff) or what we have seen has been a disaster (Ducasse).
OK, that's a pretty interesting response. While obviously I don't share your optimism, I really don't have an issue with your reasoning. But if I'm reading you correctly, you're basically saying that you see it as a 50/50 shot the line will be the same/worst than last year. Think about the way they played last year, and ask yourself, can the Jets be a playoff team with that kind of offensive line? To me, the answer is absolutely not. If they don't get more physical and powerful in the running game, they aren't gonna be able to protect Sanchez, and you can kiss goodbye any chance for a playoff spot. I just think if I were a Jets fan, the idea of my season resting on the hopes of guys like Slauson, Moore, Ducasse, and Hunter (and praying for no injuries) would leave me a little queasy.
Can you imagine starting a game with Wayne Hunter and Vlad Ducasse as your starting tackles? Even I would feel bad for Sanchez at that point.
I said MAY and even so 4-6 losses isnt bad at all. I never said there would be a true QB position battle, just stating it will be a problem during the season but dont take it as serious as the media will, insinuating that Mark is our starting QB through and through but you WILL be hearing about Tebow no matter what. Tebow will make plays and get fans excited but that doesn't mean he should replace Mark, thats essentially what I'm getting at. I use the impact of the run game as reasoning for Mark having a successful year because it has been proven, if not certainly telling by his games in the playoffs that when you give Mark a solid/consistent running game, he becomes a very effective QB. I also used the Falcons as an example of a strong balanced attack to show how we could be this year, the Falcons had Turner run for 1,300 yards while Ryan threw for 4K. Yes, they have dynamic WRs but I still believe Mark can put up those numbers, if not certainly close. The opening schedule WILL/SHOULD suck, that doesnt mean Mark has bad numbers? He can throw for 300 yards and a TD or two but we could easily still lose, maybe because of the run game? maybe because of the defense? or maybe because we got out dueled? All possibilities.
I agree, but the 4000 yards isn't the magic number in my mind, the two important stats will be his percentage and turnovers. If he throws over 60% like the OP states and cuts his turnovers way down he'll be getting compared to Montana, and Tebow will never get behind center... :smile:
Sanchez will NOT shock the world because.... ...the NYJ's draft surrounded players of the option offense....sparano was obtained because of wild cat knowledge....how can so many be in denial that tebow will be our starting qb....and thats exactly what rex wants.
What the Jets have actually done since last season in terms of likely impact on the field: 1. Ditched the mutant offense and Brian Schottenheimer. 2. Add the two-headed cat offense and Tony Sparano. 3. Ditched Plaxico Burress who had no speed but caught 45 balls and 8 TD's. 4. Added Stephen Hill who has great speed and will likely catch 28 balls and 5 TD's. 5. Ditched Rob Turner, who was hurt all year costing the Jets depth. 6. Added Robert Griffin, who is a 6th round rookie who will likely sit on the bench all year even if another hole develops. Still no depth. 7. Added Tim Tebow to run a gimmick offense that has not really been all that effective for two+ years. 8. Added Terrance Ganaway, another 6th round pick who is likely to find that running behind the Jets o-line is not all that good right now. I just don't see any improvement likely on the offensive side of the ball due largely to the same factors that held things back last year: a weakened offensive line with a hole in it and a group of WR's who are less than the sum of their parts due to various factors.
As things stand if D'Brick goes down my guess is the Jets slide Slauson out to LT and put Schlaudereff in at LG. Hunter and Ducasse would mean a 70% run offense with a ton of rollouts. I still can't figure out why Schotty didn't call more designed rollouts for Sanchez last season. He actually throws fairly well on the run on the designed stuff. It does. It left a lot of us queasy all season long last year. I think I posted along about game 2 that if the Jets didn't find a real RT they were going to be toast for the season. The only reason I spotted it that quickly is we'd already seen the effect of a hole on the o-line in 2007 with Adrien Clarke. The hole happened for the same reason both years: the Jets blowing off a proven veteran without having a real option to replace him. After Ducasse's first season the Jets were nuts to think he'd be better with a limited off-season in year two. They paid for the nutsiness with 8-8 and watching the Giants trample them in NY.
To me, what it really boils down to is whether or not they are gonna be able to establish a better running game than last year. I think it pretty much goes without saying that if they rely on their passing attack as much as they did last year they aren't going anywhere. It's a big problem that the only proven talent at RB is Shonn Greene, and he's definitely not the kind of player you want to give the ball to 350 times in a year. That puts a lot of the pressure on the O line to step up, and I just wonder if the players they have are good enough.
The Jets never really tried to establish the running game last year. They made lip service about it but Sanchez came into the year throwing too many passes and he exited the year throwing too many passes. It was an organizational disconnect of monumental proportions. So we don't really know what this group of players is capable of if the directive is actually to establish the running game. We'll have to wait and see. I don't think Shonn Greene is a plus in the overall attempt though. The odds he manages to take the 300+ carries he'll have to take to make G&P work are really low. He's a fairly fragile back and even if both he and the Jets were determined to push his carries through the roof in a contract year the odds are his body breaks down at some point.
Well they were almost a playoff team last year with that offensive line so it would not be too much of a stretch. I think Sanchez improves and the playcalling improves to help the offense including the line so even if it stays average they can be a playoff team. They might be a one and done playoff team, but a playoff team. There are so many question marks going into the season, the Jets could honestly go from 6-10 to 11-5 in my opinion. I think they can bounce back, but obviously I am going to lean towards the slightly more optimistic view. I understand your lack of faith in Wayne and Vlad, I have that too, but I really didn't like Schotty with our offense so I think that alone will make the offense and line become better. Of course with the lack of established depth, one injury likely throws the offense line into a funk. Maybe one of the young backups steps up, but right now I can't say that I am expecting that. I mean I go into every year praying not for injuries, the Chad Pennington years was praying everytime someone was near him that he was okay. It's the way football works. Maybe the Jets know something I don't but I share your worry for lack of oline depth currently
Great OP! To me, our season all boils down to Sparano's impact on the OLine. Will a simplified run-based offense result in more effective play from our existing OLine personnel? I, for one, am nervous about putting too much faith in a scheme improving our existing personnel. I worry about our lack of quality and depth on the OLine when we appear so committed to winning in the trenches. If the scheme proves incapable of improving our OLine play substantially, we have no backup plan. To me, that is a pretty big leap of faith.
I agree with Brad about Greene, but the argument that the Jets never tried to establish the running game is problematic. We could argue about how much more they could have, but they actually ranked one place higher in rushing attempts than passing, 16th v. 17th. Mid pack for both. I would argue they were from that average compared to the league in attempting to establish the running game. Add in how all those turnovers put the Jets behind too many times, and it is far from clear they were as unbalanced as Brad suggests in attempting to establish the running game. The problem for the Jets was that they were 30th in the league in average gain per rush. 3.8. With Greene as fragile as Brad says he was, and I agree there, how were the Jets supposed to increase their rushing attempts and get more success at the same time? I don't see it. Some blame the OL primarily for that anemic ypc number. The OL certainly shares the blame, but ironically on the key measure of Qb hits, they did quite well at 11th in the league (first here being LEAST qb hits). It defies the conventional wisdom particularly among Sanchez Fans here, but the Jet OL did better at pass protection than run blocking. Unless of course you want to say the weak ypc number was not primarily on the OL, but more some combination of lack of downfield passing threat and poor production from the RB's. I think it was a combination of both those factors, with the OL a distant, but not too distant, third factor. Well, however one wants to break down the reasons for the poor ypc number, what changes do we see in the coming year? About the only key factor so far is that LT will likely retire. Hm. Yes, there is the possibility that the Jets will have a better downfield threat, forcing defenders away from the LOS, by having Hill play opposite Holmes. I doubt it in the short run, frankly. There will still likely be some improvement in what was after all a season long stat at 3.8 ypc if Mangold and the rest of the line stay healthy all year. But seeing as how they STILL have no real bench help in the interior line, that's a lot to ask for or expect. The best the Jets can realistically hope for on O is a big enough drop off in turnovers by Sanchez. That would improve performance better than anything else, and seeing as how adding Hill at most is replacing a player who, for all his faults, did get 8 TD's, I don't see how one can realistically expect much more.
You seem to be dancing around this, but given that the stats showed that the OL did better at avoiding Qb hits than in generating ypc, over reliance on the passing game is a problem because of what? The Qb?
Good post. I agree. Here's the worst part - imagine it is this time last year, and we were having a debate here whether Bill Callahan and the Jets OL were going to be a better and more effective combination than if Tony Sparano were responsible for the running game. Well, I am happy Cally's gone, but that doesn't mean I have any reason to think Sparano will be significantly better.
Maybe with a few more contracts that get redone and a little more fluff cash we can still make a splash when some big names get cut.. Its still not over to pickup a RT or a S. FA is,,,Draft is,,, But its not over by a long short.. Just need the extra cash when the chopping begins. I feel pretty good about this team this year and also being an under dog works for me.
You seem to be suggesting the Jets SHOULD pick up an RT and a safety between now and opening day. Does that mean you think it would not be good if they do not?
