I just realized this while posting my grade for the first three rounds, and I thought it deserved it's own thread.. I'm interested in finding out what you guys think here. Since taking over in 06, I don't know if there's a GM in the league who has gotten more value out of their 3rd round picks. To review: 06: This is the only 3rd round pick that we didn't get value out of (Anthony Schlegel) but looking back, there's not a single name that stands out that was drafted in the third. 07: Used our third rounder to move up for Harris. Now the leader of our D and one of the best ILBs in the league. Again, no picks in that range stand out... except for maybe Michael Bush. Give me Harris over a 2nd round bust and Bush any day, though (our pick was used by CAR to draft Ryan Kalil, but we drafted Mangold the year before) 08: Used our third rounder to get Jenkins from Carolina. Anchored our DLine during playoff runs. 09: Used our third rounder to get Favre in 08. I know, I know... Favre is a douche and burned out while he was here, but it was still a great move at the time. It was kind of a wash, since we received a third rounder for Vilma. Used our eventual third rounder to pick up SG, who was projected to go way higher. 10: Traded our 3rd rounder for Braylon. Obviously a success. 11: K. Ellis. Struggled last year without training camp, but was BPA at that spot and has a ton of potential. 12: Demario Davis. After looking over the last few drafts and how Tanny used his 3rd rounders, I'm even more excited about this pick. The fact that we stayed put without a 4th rounder (when we probably could have traded back or picked up a veteran OL, RB, or S) and passed on several players who were more notable leads me to believe that the front office was absolutely in love with this guy. We'll have to wait and see, but I'm very optimistic considering Tanny's history of using 3rd rounder to get impact players. Also, the fact that they took about 10 seconds to make the selection leads me to believe that maybe he was the reason we passed on OLBs in the 1st and 2nd.
he has traded far too many of those picks away - I am fine with trading picks from the 4th round on but I think its not smart to trade picks in rounds 1 - 3.
How often do third round picks pan out, though? I think he's done a good job of identifying when to hold tight and when to use the picks to get veteran playmakers. Braylon, Harris, and Jenk all provided way more than any third rounders would have in those drafts.
True - but they (trading for other teams vets) also cost an awful lot more as well than a 3rd rounder.
That's a really good point, I didn't think about that. Still, these are 3rd rounders- so it's not like we're giving up on can't miss guys by trading them. It was just surprising to me how many legitimate stars we've been able to acquire by using our 3rd rounders.
So in the last 6 years, we took 1 bust, 1 unknown (Ellis), and we traded it 4 times. Not sure if that's really draft success, even if we got good players in the trades, especially when you consider Jenkins, Edwards, and Favre have all been gone for over a season now.
Right... but who would you have taken in the drafts where we traded our picks? Would you have found a DL better than Jenk? Or a WR better than Braylon? Not to mention, we wouldn't have Harris. The point of the draft is to find players who can contribute, so since third round picks rarely pan out, what's wrong with trading for proven commodities? IMO we don't make the AFC championship either season without these moves (aside from Favre) Also, I think you're forgetting about SG
Which playoff runs did Jenkins anchor down the D for? I remember him being injured every year we made the playoffs with him on the team.
Who knows? But Jenkins got hurt too much to really know. Braylon was a good WR, but if you draft a young WR, you might have someone on the team longer than 1.5 years. Between Favre, Jenkins, and Braylon, we got about 59 games of good play (just estimating). In 2008, Favre and Jenkins were good for 2/3 of the year, then Jenkins basically had 9 more games, and Braylon was good for 1.5 years. To me, that's not enough production, even if it was mostly quality when they were on the field. Bottom line: we got Greene, who was a solid value, but he's not a star. Ellis is a complete unknown. Schlegel was a total bust. Smith is a solid role player, worth a 3rd round pick, but nothing more.
Funny you should start this, as I was just thinking earlier today about his hit rate with 1st round pick. 06 - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold. 07 - Darrelle Revis 08 - Vernon Gholston, Dustin Keller 09 - Mark Sanchez 10 - Kyle Wilson 11 - Mo Wilkerson 12 - Quinton Coples (pending) Aside from Ghost, who by all accounts was a Mangini pick.....he's got the potential to have gone 8 for 9 in the first round, with at least picking worthwhile starters (jury is still out on Coples obviously, but contrary to popular belief, I actually find this a relatively safe pick) I suspect it would be hard to find many GM's that would have that high a hit rate, in the first round, over that time frame.
we seem to do well in the first round - its tended to be the 2 to 4 rounds where we have either not had picks or have picked and had dodgy results (especially the 2nd round).
So what you're saying here is that 6 years into the Tannenbaum regime all we have to show for our 3rd round picks is Kenrick Ellis and Demario Davis?
No.. Harris wouldn't be here if we didn't use that third to trade up You're forgetting about our starting RB Davis and Ellis will be solid cogs of the D moving forward (hopefully) Anyone who says they were unhappy about trading a 3rd for Favre at the time is probably lying and IMO we don't make either AFCC game without Harris, Jenk, or Braylon (I know, Jenk had some injuries but was one of the best DT when he was playing and helped get us there) I would urge you guys to go back and re-visit the third rounds of the drafts where we traded our pick. My point is that third-round picks have a low success rate... so what's wrong with trading that pick for a star veteran if the guys we would have selected with those picks might not be on the team anymore and wouldn't have contributed nearly as much? The drafts where we traded our pick were not nearly as deep as this year's.
I think Tanny has done a better job than most GMs during his tenure. He's obviously killed it during the first round, and my point with this post was his ability to get value out of his draft picks. This list is of first rounder is impressive, but he also realizes that 2nd and 3rd round picks are not sure things and isn't afraid to use them to pick up quality veterans in weak draft classes.
