Reaching for a QB is a horrible move by a team. When you reach you create problems down the road, but when you reach for the most important position? That's just a 5 year nightmare in the making. This idea that you go up and get your guy at QB is fairly new. Like as of the end of the lockout last year when teams were desperate to get things back on track at the box office. I think it's malarkey. You should value QB's the same way that you value other players in terms of actual talent. You should be more careful about who you draft at the position, not less. Because if you're wrong you are going to walk in the desert in sandals for a long time as a result.
If he's not that guy, then you don't trade up to 16 for him, but wait till the second round. If he's seen as a potentail starter, you draft him when you can. All the chatter lately is that he will not make it past the Seahawks at 12. Waiting till 16 is a risk. Teams are desperate for a guys that even have the look of a QB at the NFL level. Coaches and GM's without a good one don't last long.
Reaching for any player is a horrible move, but teams do it all the time. Coaches, GM's, and scouts get caught up over a guys potential. TEams without a QB are going to watch 50% of the guys that look like starters go in the first two picks. of the other two of them one is already 28. This leaves Tannehill as that guy you see with the tools that could be your QB for 10 years. Someone is going to take him early. If you think he's your guy you drat him. if not you don't trade back up for him.
The Seahawks just signed Matt Flynn to a contract that would make him a fairly expensive backup, although not critically so. I don't think it makes sense for them to draft a 3rd QB into what is already going to be a hectic environment with Tarvaris Jackson fighting for his job and Matt Flynn determined to take it.
The saints gave up that much to trade to 28 for Ingram a year ago. It's going to cost more for Miami to trade up to 17. Remember that future picks are devalued a full round. So at best their future #1 is not worth 1400 (value of the 8th pick), but much more like the 33rd pick (580 points) in this draft at most. Some teams place a mid-round below value on a future pick. So instead of pick 33, it would be pick 48 on the value chart. Assuming that they figure the #33 pick for value, would be 580 points (future #1) and #56 is worth 340. Meaning they still have to pay more to get to 990. The team trading up almost always has to pay at or over the value of the pick they are trading up too. As far as saving 400 points of value, they just gave up a future first round pick. On the value charts, thats worth more than 400. And in reality, its worth more than trading back up this year. If the Dolphins think Tannehill is a franchise QB they will draft him at 8. If they don't, they will hold out hope he falls to them in the second round. I still don't think he makes it past 12. Supposedly, Carrol is enamored with the kid.
Which still does nto take into account the QB situations of the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Browns. All three need a young QB. Hell you could even throw the Cards into that Mix with the very poor play of Kolb last year, but I feel he will be given at least one more year there. If you think a guy is worth trading back into the first for, why are you not drafting him at your original pick? Why are you risking losing out on him because someone at ESPN gave him a value. Teams are not going to say that he is a 15 to 30 value. They are going to assess if he is a NFL starter or not. If the answer is yes, he's worthy of any pick in the first, becasue its far and away the most important position on your team. If you label him as a back up, your not moving multiple picks to come back up for him.
The Fins actually have the 41 pick (#9 in the 2nd round). That's worth 490 pts. Their 1st next year is worth the same as 16 next year divided by 2. That's 500 pts. 990 overall. Teams may choose to value the future 1st more heavily or not depending on the power level of the team trading it but by convention it's the middle pick of the round in question over 2. The reason the Saints paid so heavily for Ingram is that the deal assumed that the Saints would have a much lower pick than the average in the 2012 draft. Half of that is the value they got for it in trade.
Trading back into the 1st round is less expensive than exercising a top 10 pick. It's much less expensive than exercising a top 4 pick. Neither the Browns or the Fins are likely to have a grade on Tannehill that makes him a good pick at their original positions. Reaching heavily for a QB early in the 1st round almost never happens. When it does you get things like Akili Smith happening to teams and they suck for awhile before inevitably getting a top 5 pick again and maybe finding a QB that way. Nobody thinks that Ryan Tannehill is an elite QB prospect. Nobody. He was never in the conversation with RGIII as the potential 2nd QB in this draft. He was however in the conversation as a potential 2nd round QB in this draft. In the end I don't think that even the Fins incompetent FO is going to double-brain him into a guy they have to have at all costs. I know Mike Holmgren isn't going to do that. He's had great QB's before and he knows what they look like. Tannehill is a late 1st early 2nd round talent. All the wishing and desperation on the part of a few teams isn't going to change that.
“I now believe he has a chance to be an elite NFL quarterback,” McShay said on a conference call Friday. “At quarterback, I’ve got (Stanford’s) Andrew Luck a solid No. 1, then a little drop to Robert Griffin III, and the difference from Griffin to Tannehill is not that great.” http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thed...cshay-upgrades-ryan-tannehill-to-top-10-pick/
That's one guy who has fallen in love late. Where is the consensus that Tannehill is a top 8 QB? This is not a hard call here. By the time you get a few days before the draft enough is known that obvious picks are obvious picks. Almost all of the prognosticators calling for the Fins to take Tannehill on the 8 are also saying that he is not worth the pick but the Fins need a QB. That's the definition of a reach.
Reaching for a QB happens all the time. It happened three times last year in Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker. I'm not sure why your ignoring this fact. Again, if the Browns or Dolphins do not feel that Tannehill is not an elite QB prospect, then there is not reason to trade back into the first round for him. If he's not seen as elite they are all beter off sticking with thier current non elite QB options and drafting a developmental QB later on. Same goes for the Chiefs and Cards. Saying that he is not elite, but then thinking a team will trade several picks to come bck up to get him is undermining your won argument. If he's a potential answer at starter he's worth it, if he's not then why spend so much to get him? Its not rocket sicence.
The problem with the arguments about if he's not elite top 8 material don't trade up for him later is that you're ignoring the fact that top 8 is a lot more expensive than a trade up later. It's apples and oranges. Brady Quinn was not worth a top 3 pick but the Browns traded up for him later. Chad Pennington was not worth a top 14 pick but the Jets took him later. Ryan Tannehill is not worth a top 8 pick. He's certainly worth taking at some point later on and if he's not taken in the top 8 he's probably going to get taken on a pick that is traded for and higher than he would normally go. That's because one of the teams who values him has an easy shot at him on 22 if he falls. That's where the buck stops. If the Jets think Vinny Curry is the pass rusher they need they should take him on the 16, am I right? If not, then why?
Gil Brandt has him at 6 on his top 100 http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...ty-of-draftstock-movement-as-pro-days-wrap-up CBS sports has him at 8 http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2012 Scouts inc list on ESPN has him at 9 http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft Its not one guy. its several people who think he's going in the area of top ten.
Exactly. I'm not saying the guy is going to be good. But there's no way he will last until 16. It's not rocket science.
Again, your ignoring all the current draft talk. Several teams in the 8 to 12 range are talking about drafting him. Where there is smoke there is fire this close to the draft. Who says he's not wrth a top 8 pick? You? I've already listed at least 3 sites in addition to Mayock that have him inside the top ten. If Vin Curry is by far the best draft rushing prospect left then by all means if you need a pass rusher you take him, but its a silly example. There are plenty of pass rushers in the draft of varying skill levels. Vin is behind Ingram, Jones, Coples, McClellin, Mercilus, and Upsahw at least. He's not about 25% off the available options in the draft to start at his position. There are 4 guys seen as potential starters with in a year or two at QB. Half of those will be gone by pick 3. There is no big supprise to the fact that of the two left Tannehill is seen as the better long term answer. With so many teams in need of an upgrade at QB his draft value is much higher than your giving it credit for.
Tannehill is the wildcard. How much of it is smokescreen and how much of it is real, nobody knows. If Miami doesn't want Tannehill, they hope that he goes ahead of them so someone else drops. Cleveland would move up if they felt someone else was going to move ahead of them for Tannehill, which is very possible if he falls that far. If that was how the board fell, the Jets would likely look hard to move back, and if Cleveland felt the Jets would trade the pick to someone else in need of a QB, then they'd move up. The one issue is that they would likely realize the Jets wouldn't trade down to give the Dolphins their quarterback
Tannehill is a breaker for the Fins on the 8. If he works out then they have a couple of possibilities. He could be average in which case they're still looking but like 4 years down the road and not losing a ton of games in the interim. He could be the franchise in which case they're golden. If he doesn't work out the Fins next real shot at a Super Bowl will be in like 2017-2018. I just can't see them taking him on the 8 without knowing he is the guy. It's too big a blow if they do that and miss.
