lol and people thought Revis wouldn't be a problem just because of his contract clause. All the rats want off the sinking ship now.
Nice idea but they won't be able to afford him even more next year than this year. Then they will be at the mercy of other teams who know they have no choice but to trade him.
Revis can't be traded right now. His cap hit for being traded is north of $17 million. That's just not happening this year given the Jets cap constraints.
You can't build a team in the today's NFL where you have three players at the same position account for $22.5 million dollars - or based upon the $130m of cap space - equate to about 18% of available cap space. Next year, the Jets will have $21.75 million dollars in cap room allocated to these three players. It is doubtful the cap will go up much next year - probably about $122 million we had this year (minus the 2011 carry over). The Jets again will have about 18% of their cap space locked up. The Jets were fortunate that they carried over cap space from last year and each team received additional cap space after the Cowboys/Redskins cap controversy. It is unlikely the Jets will be able to carry over too many cap credits next year with only $7 million left this year before signing rookies and UDFA. With three CBs under contract next year, there is no way the Jets will carry Revis, Cro, and Wilson. Only Wilson is tradeable over the next 2 years from a salcap standpoint but I don't know how much value in return the Jets will receive. Provided he continues to improve he is the least likely to go. Cro has, IMO, zero trade value compared to other two. He isn't tradeble this year but he would save the Jets at least $1.25 million next year depending upon the timing of the trade or release. Revis has the highest return value of the three but he certainly can't be traded in 2012. He could be traded in 2013 but the Jets would have to account for a worse case scenario of an additional $3 million deadspace cap hit depending upon the timing. My guess is they could break-even with dead cap space issue if they trade him before certain bonuses are due. Although I like Revis as a player, IMO he is a horrible team player and leader. His comments now are not what the team needs and are again demonstrative of the player the Jets first drafted. He was a problem with his rookie contract, with his hold-out two years ago and again now. We can fix the problem now but he will do again what he has done in the past and hold out. At this point in time "Mevis" is who he is and nothing the Jets do will change that. Overall, the value of the CB position is highly overrated especially when factoring in that CB play only impacts the one receiver covered. Assuming that the opposing team's player averages 100 catches a year, that equates to approximately 6.2 catches per game. Over the course of 60 offensive plays per game, your top CB only has an impact on 10% of the plays. CB play can be mitigated especially by teams with more than one WR option. A pass rushing DE or LB impacts every passing play and depending upon their skillset, rushing plays as well. There just isn't the game changing impact from CB that you have from a DE or LB. Pass happy teams are schematically countering CB value by utilzing TEs in the middle of the field and RBs out in the flat. A great DE or LB can make an average CB look good. Unfortunately the opposite is not true when one has a great CB. The bottom-line is the Jets do not have the cap room in 2012 or in 2013 to address the Revis situation and will have too many holes that need to be filled. I would much rather have multiple #1 picks at a lower cap cost to fill multiple positions, than Revis tying up so much cap room with such minimal overall return. I think you can pretty much guarantee that Revis will be playing his last season as a NYJ in 2012.
Kleck, I generally agree with your take on things, especially involving the fundmentals of the game, but it leaps out at me when you say things like "Overall, the value of the CB position is highly overrated especially when factoring in that CB play only impacts the one receiver covered. Assuming that the opposing team's player averages 100 catches a year, that equates to approximately 6.2 catches per game. Over the course of 60 offensive plays per game, your top CB only has an impact on 10% of the plays. CB play can be mitigated especially by teams with more than one WR option." Before dissecting this quote, you ignore the benefit to the overall D of having a cb who can play man coverage. Without that ability, the D must adjust to having at least one of its other players shift to pass coverage. This is no small matter, and is the very reason why Ryan wants cb's who can play man, and do. In effect, ignoring this fact, perhaps with the intent of implicitly discounting its importance, means you disagree with Ryan. That is certainly something you are entitled to do, and is not an inherently illogical position, but imo it needs to be explained. Turning back to the particulars, your above quote implies that the cb is only relevant to roughly 10% of the plays the D is on the field. But those average of 60 plays include penalties and punts, and a small number of FGA's as well. More importantly, by focusing only on CATCHES, your assessment ignores hte most important reason the cb is out there, which is to PREVENT catches. Last year, the Jets D faced 31.7 pass attempts per game. In other words, roughly half of all plays the D was on the field, including fourth down plays, penalties and the 28.2 rushing plays it faced on average, were pass plays. It should be obvious that your cb's are critical to defending pass plays. In addition, Revis was tied for first in interceptions at 4, and Cro also had 4. That was nearly half the team's total, and adding in Wilson's two was more than half the total interceptions. In fact the three of them (Wilson not being a starter) combined for over one fourth of all turnovers obtained. Revis also was 6th in total tackles. In short, your statement that individual CB's only have an impact on 10% of all defensive plays is so gross a distortion as to be absurd.
I should also add that the Jets D ranked 24th in pass attempts against them, and 11th in rushing attempts, given that the Jet D was 13th in rushing D and fifth in pass D opponents tended to rush more against them. While there were some other factors involved here, such as the quality of the opponent, it is fair to say the Jets D would have faced more pass attempts if their cb's were not as good. In other words, if you want your cb's to be in on more plays, put worse ones out there, and the "importance" of the position by your metric goes up. I am sorry, but I do not find your analysis on this score to be persuasive. Concededly the relatively worse numbers on run D are a problem, and are not totally unrelated, at least in theory, to how much the Jets have tied into their cb's. But factors such Thomas being out for most of the season, and even DeVito, were more direct factors. That and that the way to attack the Jet D was NOT to attack their starting corners.
How long did it take Bill Belichik to find an offensive set that neutralized the Jets advantages on the perimeter? Get real people. CB's can be played around and the all time master at playing around schooled us twice last year by doing exactly that while all 3 of our corners were healthy and in many cases on the field. Brady/Ochocinco/Branch vs Revis/Cromartie = 50/72 for 650 yards, 4 TD and 1 Int, Pats score 67 pts in 2 games. Think about it. And yeah it wasn't Brady to the WR's but who cares? The Pats moved on the Jets like their defense was swiss cheese.
Nice reply BB. As soon as I read the comment about Revis only effecting 10% of the plays on the field I was all set to come back with a long reply but I think you basically covered what I was going to say. I realize that people are frustrated with Revis' apparent greediness (myself included) but that doesn't take anything away from his skills on the field. Why are so many Jets fans going out of their way to try to trivialize Revis' value to the D? Because their pissed that he's getting so much money or that he might end up holding out again? It seems to be getting a little ridiculous.
Well you can't say Brady/Ocho/Branch vs Revis/Cro and then say it wasn't to Ocho/Branch and then who cares. That is completely misleading. It was their offense vs our defense that led to the stats you posted. If the Jets can improve their pass rush, and Revis demands a boatload of money, it would be in their best interest to trade Revis. If the Jets improve their pass rush, and Revis wants a decent but not outrageous amounts of money, it would be in their best interest to sign Revis. If the Jets cannot improve their pass rush, and Revis demands a boatload of money, trade him. If the Jets cannot improve their pass rush, and Revis wants decent but not outrageous money, probably keep him or the defense will struggle even more. The hypothetical pass rush would come from improvement of current players/ upcoming draft. Oh and this is very basic scenarios. But if Revis doesn't demand outrageous money and hold out, I want him on the team. If he does holdout and demand insane amounts of money, oh well send him to the NFC. I really hope Revis doesn't try for an insane salary, but I wouldn't blame him for trying to make the most money possible
Every scenario you listed in which Revis demands a lot of money you traded him. He's going to ask for a lot of money. This trade is going to happen. It's just a matter of when and whether or not the Jets get much back for him. If they don't deal with that reality and begin planning the 2013 exit for Revis they're going to wind up in one of two places: cap-strung by Revis for years to come or letting him go for nothing at the end of 2013. If Rex wants to keep Revis he better tailor the defense to do what it did in 2009 when the whole defense worked to optimize the play of the CB's. Otherwise Revis is just not worth what he's likely to ask. Even if the Jets do this and blitz again there's no guarantee that the NFL and the Pats in particular can't neutralize the approach by using the two TE's to chip block and then release on short routes.
The Jets matched up horribly against the Pats last season (as they have for a long time now). In the first game Law Firm went for 136 yds and 2 TDs on 27 carries. In the second game Gronk had 8 catches for 113 yds and 2 TDs. Our safties and LBs were way to slow to cover anyone and we had no passrush to speak of. Having a great CB tandem isn't going to make up for all of that. Also, as you mentioned, BB is one of the all-time greats at exploiting mismatches.
All of which suggests that having an all-world CB isn't worth very much against the team we have to beat to get to the next level. Right?
I know he is going to ask for a lot of money regardless, but there is a big difference between best corner in the league money and best defender in the league money. If he wants best corner only, the Jets need to seriously consider keeping him. If he asks for best defender in the league money, the Jets, depending on what their defense looks like, have a tough decision. Again, my scenarios were basic as I originally stated.
But having an all-world CB can help against several other teams we might play. You can't try to mold your team just to beat a certain team, especially if its Bill and Brady who will find ways to out gameplan most teams. The Jets shouldn't make decisions based on will it help us beat the Pats, it should be based on whether or not this makes us a better football team.
At what cost though? He's holding this franchise hostage every two years. Now would be the time to sell him at his absolute highest.
No, all of which suggests that an all-world CB isn't going to be a game changer by himself if the rest of your D is deficient. You could have the best passrusher in the league on your team but if you have a slow, mediocre backfield you're still going to get ripped in the passing game by teams with good QBs. I don't care how good any single player is, you still have to have sufficient talent around you in order to be effective.
The way to beat the teams you need to beat is to put together a strong talent base at every level of the offense and defense and then just go out and beat them. The way to stay the Pat's bitch for the next 5 years or so is to put a huge amount of value at one level on offense or defense and let Belichik figure out how to make that not matter. I've been watching the Jets go also-ran against the Pats almost non-stop since 2003. That's 10 seasons this season. It's time for the Jets to stop doing the things that have perpetuated that situation and to begin functioning like a high-quality NFL franchise. You don't beat the Patriots acting like the Yankees when there's a salary cap in place. It just doesn't happen. But by all means if the Jets think they can do this then for the love of god sign better free agents. The Yankees wouldn't be winning much signing the 11th best player at every position in free agency. And BTW, don't sign the CB to a huge contract. Sign the #1 wide receiver in football and the #1 ROLB in football to that contract.
The Jets are 4-5 vs the Pats in the last 4 years. 3-4 if you take out the Favre/Cassell games. None of what you said goes against what I think. You don't pour ridiculous amounts of money into Revis, as I said. And what you said up top, strong talent at every level goes is how you beat teams, I agree. But in the post I quoted before, you said having an all pro CB didn't help us beat NE which IMO is the wrong way to look at it. The goal, as you stated, is to build talented team at all levels. These decisions should not be based on beating a specific team, but on improving your own team. Revis improves our team, its up to FO to decide at what cost. I personally think the last bandaid deal was necessary because otherwise our corners were Cro and the rookie Wilson. And Revis was coming off one of the greatest years for a CB ever. The defense was also built on blitzing and forcing QBs to throw to Revis. Something they eventually changed from towards the end of 10-11 and into 11-12.
The Pats and Giants were in the Super Bowl and in my eyes both there secondaries were BAD------a pass rush makes the worst of secondaries look good
