I'm not saying I want him, but I can see the pros and cons for the trade. I know how to look up the draft value chart, but that's not always used in these cases. Atlanta traded their 1st (27th), their 2nd & 4th and the following years 1st and 4th. On the surface, that feels nuts, but they were also 11 picks lower and moved up to 6th. If we were to move up to 4 or 6 for T-Rich, what would it take? I assume Keller would also be a part of the deal as well.
Our 2nd this year and our first next year would get us to #4. He's not getting past Tampa at 5. If by some miracle he made it to 6 we could do it with our 2nd and 3rd.
I certaintly don't want to walk away with T-Rich, no 2nd pick, no 1st next year, and holes at FS, WR, OLB and most especially RT
If he gets past the Bucs at 5 I don't see a need to trade for him, he could easily fall to 16 if nobody traded ahead of us. Let's say we wanted to trade with the Jags at 7 who want to move down, it would most likely take our #16, #47, and a second next year IMO.
The Jet are trapped in time, low on ammo and out of gas. They have significant holes to fill this year and more on the way next. That's the trapped in time. They are short their 4th round pick this year already and can't afford to have the draft turn into a prime 1st rounder, another mid-round pick and several 6th's and 7th's. That's the low on ammo. Their philosophy of trading draft picks for other team's unwanted players is a part of the problems above. Their philosophy of trading up and taking sure things in the draft is part of the problems above. Their philosophy of drafting small school players who might have slipped out of the round they were drafted in otherwise is a part of the problems above. They collapsed back to the pack last season due in large part to the overall talent acquisition processes they have in place. That's the out of gas. It would be a weird little detour for most teams to consider trading more than half their draft to move up for a running back. A one year splash so to speak that probably wouldn't produce great results unless he was one of the last pieces in the puzzle. Even then the long-term prognosis would be grim. Look at who actually has the great backs right now and you see a stream of unending failure from the organizations with the notable exception of the Ravens, who found their guy in the 2nd round. For the Jets it would represent not a weird little detour but the culmination of a very weird long sequence of moves stretching back to 2001. The Jets have been all about making something different work since 2001. They trade for players with dangling issues all the time. They trade up in the draft incessantly. They spit on the draft like no team since the Redskins circa the Snyratto era. They make "smart" value picks early in the draft that produce players that aren't quite as smart as all that when the numbers are toted up at the end of the year. The Jets have been all about: "look at me, I'm a genius!" since Terry Bradway traded up for Santonio Moss in 2001. They haven't learned anything from the mistakes, instead they repeat them. What you can say about the Jets is that they haven't been bad since 2001. They've been below the level the Parcells era Jets were although that's a bit misleading since Parcells handed them the talent base for the 35-29 from 2001 to 2004. Since 2005, when the Parcells era talent base had to be dismantled the Jets are just 55-57 with 3 playoff appearance in 7 years. That's where the Bradway/Tannenbaum strategy for talent acquisition has put the Jets. It's the real reading of where they are now because similar aging and injury issues as those in 2005-2007 are causing similar problems with a QB that is good enough to lead, good enough this time to win in the playoffs even, but not good enough to carry the team on his back when the talent drops out.
I dont agree that the Jets are bad drafters or have the draft the wrong, the only thing the Jets dont have is a really good QB - if Sanchez had performed (or yet performs) then no-one would be saying anything about the Jets strategy in the draft.
In 2009 the Jets traded up from17 to 5th. The compensation they gave up was the 17th pick, 52nd pick, Coleman, Ratliff and Abram. All very marginal players likely equivalent to one late round pick. Keep in mind that was pre-cba before the rookie salary cap changes so the value of top 10 picks has gone up quite a bit. I would guess trading up into the top 5 would cost the Jets their 1-3 picks this year or 1st and 2nd this year along with next years second. If Richardson lasts until 7 his value might be a lot cheaper as it seems the Jags want to trade down.
When you have no RT and are working with your 3rd group of receivers in 3 years how can you perform? The Jets strategy is what lead to both of those things being true last season. You can't separate out Sanchez play from the crap that has gone on around him and say "if only he played better everything would have been different." If Wayne Hunter had played better then maybe Sanchez would have played better. If Sanchez had actually gotten another go round with Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery and Keller maybe he'd have played better. The reason he didn't get that is that the Jets cap wouldn't allow it.
you cannot point to the fact that Hunter failed to carry on where he left off in 2010 and use that as proof that the Jets are terrible drafters. He was playing well enough in 2010 that the Jets were not unreasonable in thinking that they had they position sorted. Why didnt they upgrade this offseason? Well there were virtually no decent tackle FAs available (and those that were available nearly all had considerable injury risks associated with them). Is it really that likely that someone taken in the 4th or 6th rounds would have been any more effective than Hunter? (aside from making the obvious joke that a revolving door would have been more effective than Hunter). As for the receivers, they wanted to keep both Edwards and Jericho and both wanted to leave, so its hardly the FOs fault that there was a change at the WR position, and the Jets are hardly unique in having some roster changes edit: just to be clear, I am not arguing that the Jets are great drafters, I dont think they are are anything special but nor do I think that they are especially terrible or that trading away late round picks is the cause of our problems - losing picks in rounds 1 to 3 is never good, but for the later rounds I dont (personally) see them as being that much more effective than having a good handle on the UDFA market (which again, the Jets dont really seem to have). As I see it our problems can be traced to: (i) Sanchez not progressing (for a variety of reasons), (ii) not adequately replacing Woody (which would have taken a 1st round pick - not one in rounds 4 to 7), (iii) getting caught up in the Nnamdi crap last offseason and so wasting that opportunity, (iv) poor team chemistry - and I dont see how you can point to a lack of late round draft picks as resulting in any of the above.
Of course I can point to that fact. Hunter was a 30+ year old backup that the Jets inexplicably double-visioned into an NFL starter. It was just a stupid move that derailed the Jets offense for significant periods last year. He started a half dozen games that he played passably in. That what you hope a career backup can do when called upon. To expect him to continue and improve on that level after 30 was wishful thinking. If you're not in it you can't win it and after the first few rounds the Jets just aren't in the draft most years. There's no chance you find a cheap player who works out for you if your 4th and 5th picks are routinely traded by the time you get to them. In the last 5 drafts the Jets have exercised 3 4th round picks, 3 5th round picks and 3 6th round picks. That's 40% of their 4th to 6th picks that have gone missing over that time span. Not surprisingly they have both depth and cap issues now. They've only exercised 2 3rd round picks in that 5 year span. Things becoming clearer now?
I understand your point clearly, and you argue the point well, its just not something I agree with (probably I am wrong, I am not an expert by any stretch of the imagination). I guess I just dont have an issue with trading up provided it doest cost high draft picks. Perhaps I am actually Mike T!
i think jetsUK might be right. the jets have needs at RT, OLB, WR, and safety, but what teams don't have pressing needs? the patriots and packers defenses are fucking garbage, but no one hates on their draft strategy because their QBs are amazing. honestly, who minus rob gronkowski, aaron hernandez, and tom brady has bill belichick drafted thats so great? he trades down consistently, but really minus tom brady their team is bad
I'm all for trading up for Richardson. Yes, he is that good. If you want to be known as "ground and pound" you better get a stud at RB. Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight, and Bilal Powell are poster children for mediocrity.
This is the major problem with this franchise right now. I mentioned this in another thread, but rounds 3-5, IMO, are the most important rounds to find starters.
Trading up for Richardson would be about the dumbest thing this team could do at this point. RBs are not first round material any more. Teams use committees at RB more and more. The Jets just have too many holes to fill to give up draft picks on what is rapidly becoming one of the least valued NFL positions.
That would be the very reason why we would have to trade up at least a little even if T-Rich began falling -- teams with needs at RB would know he'd be a Jet at 16. The Bengals could offer one of their 1sts and a 3rd to jump to 14 or 15 (they pick at 17) and take him. The Browns could do the same and they pick at 22. The Vikings two major needs at #3 are LT and CB. I know Rex likes Kyle Wilson, but we could probably give our 1st, 2nd, and Kyle Wilson (1st round value) to move up to #3 and take T-Rich. The Vikings then take an OT at #16 (Reiff/Martin) or another CB like Stephon Gilmore/Dre Kirkpatrick and take an OT atop the 2nd round (Mike Adams). Wilson is an ascending talent, but we should be able to get a very solid nickel back prospect in the 3rd (Trumaine Johnson, Casey Heyward, Alfonzo Dennard) or 5th (Leonard Johnson, Chris Greenwood, Josh Norman). It's a win-win if the Vikings get: CB Kyle Wilson, OT Jonathan Martin (#16), CB Janoris Jenkins (top of 2nd round) and the Jets get: RB Trent Richardson (#3), OLB Jake Bequette/Bruce Irvin (3rd round), CB Chris Greenwood/Josh Norman (5th round)
I promise you that wouldnt happen. Wilson, while coming along very nicely, doesn't hold first round value, and for the amount teams are trading up for nowadays that might not do it. To add, I doubt the Jets would move all the way up to #3 for a RB, as much as I love Trent, that's just absurd, and we could never afford that. Teams like the Bengals could trade up for Trent but that doesnt mean we should jeopardize the team by trading up to 3.
