This is just dumb. Lester/Beckett/Buchholz is an outstanding top 3. If all three are pitching a their top levels they stack up against any playoff rotation in baseball. Doubront is unknown at this point, and Bard certainly has the stuff to start (though I prefer him in the bullpen) but is a question as well. However, you can count on one hand the number of teams with fewer than 2 questions about their rotations.
Lots of people really pissed that Cervelli was optioned back to Scranton even though he is the only one that still had options left.
Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz collectively cannot stay healthy. Bard's transition to being a starter went so poorly this spring that Valentine and Cherrington disagreed about whether Bard should be a starter or reliever. Spring numbers are very important for relievers attempting to convert to starters and the success rate for conversion is very low: Bard, D BOS Wins 2 Losses 2 ERA 6.57 Games 6 Starts 5 IP 24.2 Hits 21 Runs 18 ER 18 HR 2 BB 16 SO 18 Opp BA .228 WHIP 1.50 His walks rate is alarmingly high and, despite his low Opp BA, his overall WHIP is high enough to raise red flags. His IP sample size is large enough for spring and, finally, his ERA dispells any chance that Bard will have anything BUT a below-average season as a SP. And this is coming from a fantasy baseball owner that drafted Bard. Doubront is the more interesting pitcher. He's young (24) but hasn't looked good at AAA or in the majors. Since '09 his BB/9 rate has consistently stayed above 3.3. He had low K numbers in AAA and did not pitch well enough this spring (10 K in 16 IP; .290 Opp BA) to do anything except convince me that Bard pitched his way into the 5th spot, and that Doubront only won the 4th spot by default. Beckett was solid last year but he was pretty lucky (2.89 ERA vs 3.58 xFIP vs 3.43 SIERA; .245 BABIP; lowest opponent LD% since 2007). To his credit, he brought his walk and HR allowed numbers rebounded. Lester's numbers last year were relatively accurate. He's no bonafide #1 SP but he's a legit 1b option if he stays healthy. Buccholz is where the argument begins. He was extremely lucky in 2010 (.261 BABIP; 2.33 ERA vs 4.07 xFIP 4.23 SIERA) He had the largest ERA-xFIP gap [in a bad way] out of any SP in the league in 2010. One could easily label him the Luckiest Starting Pitcher of 2010. His career K/BB rate is atrocious (last three years: 1.89, 1.79, 1.94) and if he can't get his K/BB over 2 it will prevent him from becoming anything more than a #4 SP in the long-run. Don't forget the health concerns. Given that Aceves went from being the #6 SP to now the closer, the BoSox are one injury away from rotation purgatory and another bump in the road away from 4th in the AL East.
Lester is probably the most overrated #1 in baseball. Um, Beckett has done what exactly the past few season? Buchholz will be injured by the end of July. Bard won't last a month as a starter, he wore down as a freaking reliever last year, how's he going to be a starter, AND he walks too many people. Doubront is a questionmark. Saying that rotation is better than the Yankees is laughable. If I were a Sox fan I'd be shitting myself. In his starts in Single-A he averaged over a walk per inning, had an ERA above 6, and couldn't go longer than 4 innings...LOL
Cervelli was trash last year both offensively and defensively. Don't give a shit that he got sent down.
Why didn't you use your ability to see the future to win the Mega Millions? No one has any idea how healthy they will be this year. Even if they get hurt, it doesn't change what I said; IF they are all pitching to their ability, they are as good a top 3 as anyone. No they didn't. Bard was a starter and was always going to be a starter. Valentine just like to be a shithead and rag his players in the media. He thinks it motivates them, I guess. This is patently false. Spring numbers are not important in any way, for anyone, ever. Even less so for pitchers than hitters. You go into starts with completely different objectives. Getting outs is not always the main concern. You might go into a start saying "I'm going to work on my changeup today" and proceed to throw twice as many as normal, or in strange counts. Looking at spring training numbers is about as useful as looking at a guy's Little League numbers. They are completely worthless. This is more evidence of the worthlessness of spring stats. You're concerned about his ERA, but the one REALLY bad outing he had (7 ER in 2.2 IP) was a relief appearance. His ERA in starts was 4.50, which is just about league average. And if you consider that the guy he's replacing, John Lackey, had an ERA over 6 and made 28 starts, 150 innings of 4.50 ERA is a huge improvement. Obviously it will take time and he will have struggles, but with his stuff he should be able to be a mid rotation starter. As long as the Red Sox don't pull some stupid shit and move him back and forth 15 times like the Yankees did with Chamberlain and let him develop, he should be fine long term and OK this year. I'm not really all that high on Doubront, but he's a back end starter. He's about what you would find at the back end of most staffs in the league. He will be replaced by Matsuzaka in June anyway. His ground ball rate was also WAY lower than normal. He's probably going to be around 180 IP and and ERA around 3.50. Nothing wrong with that in the AL East. His K rate is exactly league average and he gets more ground balls and gives up fewer line drives than average. His career walk rate is skewed a bit by his first two years where it was over the top bad. Since then, it has been above average, but not horribly so (8.8% last year compared to 8.6% MLB average). I'm not too worried about him, as long as he's healthy. You can say the same about just about every team outside of Tampa. If Sabathia goes down, the Yankees are fucked. Same with Detroit if they lose Verlander. I think the Sox are going to finish in 3rd again this year, but it isn't because they aren't a good team. They were the best team in baseball for most of last season. Bailey's injury has me a bit more worried than I had been, but they are going to hit the fuck out of the ball. If the rotation produces like they are capable of, they will be right in the mix all year. Tampa and the Yankees are likely slightly better, but it's not like they don't have questions either. Tampa can't hit and the Yankee rotation could be pretty bad after Sabathia. Nova's K/BB rate is worse than Buchholz's, Pineda is already on the DL with a scary injury for a pitcher after a huge fade late last year, and Kuroda hasn't faced the AL East. Bottom line, it's probably going to be a three team race all year. Should be fun.
I don't need to be a soothsayer to know that Bedard and Harden are injury risks. Same applies to Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz especially. The point here is that Yankees #5 > Bard. Spring performance helps answer many important questions about relievers converting to starters: When a reliever converts to a starter, though each pitcher is different, there are several things to look for: 1. How much velocity does he lose on his fastball? 2. How much does his strikeout rate decline? 3. Does his walk rate stay the same, drop, or go up? Relievers converting to starters don't see their BB/9 rates affected unless there's an underlying issue. 4. How much does the pitcher rely on his fastball? 5. Has he been effective against both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters? You're going way out on a limb for a guy that's never started a game above minor league A+ level. And hasn't started a game (other than this spring) since 2007. Yes, the guy with the .248 BABIP, 5.75 xFIP, 5.30 ERA and 5.50 SIERA in 2011 coming off of TJ surgery is a great #4 SP option. As was his LD%. They basically offset. He's never had an LD% below 17 except for this past year when it was a ridiculously lucky 10.9%. His increase in FB% nearly matched his increase in HR/FB%. Their bullpen issues exacerbate the concerns with rotation depth. Who is Boston's 6th SP now that Aceves is closing?
Yankees now offering peanut-free seats for fans with peanut allergies. http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/04/04...seball-stadiums-offer-allergy-friendly-seats/
Token ESPN commentary forecasting the upcoming season http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7776156/mlb-2012-preview-new-york-yankees-predictions
The...Phillies in the World Series? Does ESPN realize the Phillies have the WORST lineup in baseball? Seriously? They might not even win their division...
And Ty Wigginton and the corpse of Jim Thome! I really wish I had seen that the Vegas over/under for the Phillies was 93.5 sooner. I would have bet the under in a heartbeat. Too late now.
http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/117341/1/watch-new-york-yankees-vs-tampa-bay-rays.html You need streamtorrent though
hahha how stupid is Girardi??? He has to be the worst game day manager in baseball......he walks a guy intentionally in the 1st inning of the 1st game to get teh lefty-lefty matchup???? hahahhahaa hes a fuckin retard
