Tim Tebow: An efficient scorer among the Elites.

Discussion in 'Tebowmania' started by whichfan, Mar 26, 2012.

  1. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    And you provided nothing. I understand who they are. They provide data.

    They are not endorsed by the NFL to define "poor throws" or track them.

    Again, please show me the criteria, and the definition of a "poor throw" that they used backed by the NFL. And show me the data. I don't know what that is. How do you pick it out?

    How are they able to determine whether a quarterback underthrew or overthrew a receiver without knowing the routes? How do they determine a throw away in the middle of a field versus a miss?

    There is no standardized definition that allows us to track it across all teams, unlike touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles which is. They have clear definitions and we review it over and over by officials before they are kept track of.

    If you ask me, it's impossible. It's a bunch of junk.
     
  2. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    What's a bunch of junk is someone trying to argue that Tebow is not inaccurate. It's pretty much insane. Your love for Tebow is blinding you from the truth.
     
  3. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Here are some fun facts: Denver did not lead the league in drops. They were not even top 10. They were 13. They were .4 above league average, and if you take out the outlier Chiefs, they are .9 above average, still not close to leading the league.

    http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
    http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

    Here is some more fun facts: As whichfan said Rodgers was sacked more than Tebow and Brady one less than Tebow. What whichfan does not say, because it would really mess up the argument, is that Tebow was sacked on 12% of his attempts and Brady on 5% and Rodgers on 7%. Meaning Tebow was sacked around the same amount of times as both players, but a lot more frequently.

    More fun facts: Tebow in 2011 is 1-1 in games where he throws 25+ passes, 5-5 in 20+ passes, and 3-0 in where he throws <20 passes. The average pass attempts per game in the nfl is 25 if I round down the decimal.

    In Tebow's wins his defense gave up 17.5 points. That ranks 5th best in the NFL compared to other teams during the season. So that his defense was bad would be wrong. They were inconsistent.

    Just some more facts to fill out the story of the Denver Broncos team last year.
     
  4. Big Blocker

    Big Blocker Well-Known Member

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    Good post.

    It is dishonest to use selective stats, which is what the person you referred to did.
     
  5. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    Ahem. Who's being dishonest?

    [​IMG]

    Interesting how you use % for sacks but conveniently leave it out for drops. And I was talking about totals when I was talking about sacks. 28 Drops for a team that threw the ball as few times as Denver did is a killer. Same goes for throw-aways, and unfortunately there is no official data to present. And again, this is regular season only. If you count post-season, they were indeed worst in the NFL.

    You keep acting like I have some sort of an agenda to twist numbers. I don't, I'm simply presenting what's already readily available on NFL.com but nobody pays attention to and trying to fill you in on what exactly Tim Tebow is very good at, as opposed to the million of mediots who only focus on ONE of the 4 categories a quarterback is graded on: completion %. And that's pretty much how Tebow won football games. Scored more touchdowns than he turned over the ball compared to the opposing quarterback. No different than how Tom Brady wins most of his games, or Aaron Rodgers.

    Like it or not, there are 4. As well as rushing stats, and completion % is NOT the only thing we rate quarterbacks on. And while his numbers may not be in the top in that particular category, he is at the very top in the other ones. Once again it just so happens, that when it comes to winning, touchdowns and turnovers matter more than completion % or a completed pass. It's just how it works in the NFL, and Tebow understands this. It ultimately boils down to this very simple strategy. Which will never change.

    Tim Tebow isn't the only quarterback that looks very efficient in the numbers. The rest of the elites understand this very important thing as well.

    :pS Notice the lack of correlation between quarterbacks and dropped passes. The Colts with Curtis Painter are one of the best in catching the football(perhaps those Manning receivers did have something to do with his success after all). Aaron Rodgers's squad is one of the worst...despite his tight spirals. Those that continue to make comments about "spirals" are ridiculous.
     
    #225 whichfan, Mar 29, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2012
  6. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Because my links for drops didn't have that. It just had drops. You never provided a link, you just said Denver led the league in drops, which they didn't. They don't even lead the league in drop percentage.

    I used the links I could find and put down stats. And you are misleading people, because you are trying to say Tebow is an efficient scorer and then link that to be an efficient QB. I proved multiple examples where efficiency is very misleading. One of the facts is because 67% of Tebow's TDs came within 20 yards. Combine that with his low number of attempts compared to every other starting QB in the nfl, his efficiency will look high. They ran running plays for him near the redzone, where a team like St. Louis would have Stephen Jackson pound it in. Both teams got the 7 points but Tebow is more efficient because he did it himself? Doesn't make sense.
     
  7. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    That's because I do my homework and there are no links. I do it the hard way and put it together myself before I "spout BS". I actually DO real research.

    And there's nothing misleading because Tebow's scoring efficiency. He IS an efficient scorer. So is Rodgers. So is Brady. So is Cam Newton.

    And again, you are trying to argue it away, as if the same types of arguments can't be made about Rodgers or Brady or any other quarterback in the league.

    "The reason Brady is an efficient scorer is because he plays quarterback for the Patriots offense".

    Same type of argument. How many of Tom Brady's TD's were within 20 yards? What about Rodgers?

    I actually also have another stat for you, unlike west coast offense quarterbacks, Tebow was also #1 in the league in air passing efficiency. Most air passing yards per attempt.

    But of course I'm sure you're going to find some kind of problem with that too...."well that's because he throws bombs"...who gives a rats ass? And guys like Brady and Rodgers have a great completion % and yards because 50% of their yards are yards after catch and most of their passes are dinks and dunks.

    I mean I don't understand why you have to discredit everything he accomplishes while overlooking the fact, that all quarterbacks benefit from their offensive style and surrounding cast. And I think when it comes to that, one can argue Tebow received the least support. That's what I'm trying to explain to you. Some guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees seriously benefit in certain categories like yards and like completion % from the type of offense they run and their surrounding cast. Other quarterbacks don't. Other quarterbacks approach the game from a different angle.

    Stop grading Tim Tebow using the same criteria you use for a traditional pocket passer while discounting or wiping away all of the other things he does because he is a dual pass/rush quarterback. He will NEVER measure up to Brady or Rodgers or other traditional pocket passing quarterbacks as an NFL passer. But you know what? Those guys will NEVER measure up to Tebow as dual pass/rush quarterbacks.

    Stop using double standards.
     
  8. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Here are some other things I have a problem with:

    Nobody ever credits Tebow's defense for any of the wins. They played outstanding. Nobody ever credits Matt Prater for kicking 75% from FG on 50+ yards. Including multiple game winners or game tiers. Any Jets/Colts/PAts fan can tell you how important a kicker is. Doug Brien makes every Jets fan groan and want to cry.

    Being an efficient scorer is not equal to being an efficient quaretback. Tebow's sample size is much smaller than every other QB's except Locker.

    As stated multiple times, QB's like Brady,Brees,Tebow,Newton will call their own number either passing or running near the RZ. This might make them look more efficient but is it really more efficient than another QB handing the ball off and letting his RB score?

    To really judge efficiency, we can't just look at TO and TDs. We need to see how long of a drive the TD consisted of. Getting multiple short fields can benefit a QB into having to run less plays to score. Getting multiple long fields will create in more plays to score, but if both QB's drive the length they were given for a TD, why is one QB more efficient than the other? To really break it down you would need to see every scoring drive and see how far away the drive started. Then you can you see how efficient they were. If a QB's defense/special teams are proving starting field position at their own 35 compared to another team getting own 20, it will really sway the stats. Add into the fact turnovers and where they place the ball. If a CB returns a pick to the 1 yard line and the QB does a sneak is that more efficient than a QB getting a ball at their own 1 and driving 16 plays for a TD. I would argue the second is more efficient because not only do they flip the field position, they took a lot of time off the clock too.

    On the fact of efficiency, another example are QB's who go 3 and out a lot. They actually are punished less for going 3 and out than a QB who is able to have 7 plays that stalls but gets a FG. You would want to see not only length of drives, but if they ended in points or not. Efficiency stats you have are very basic and to call Tebow elite off them is misleading.

    Additionally, as I said before, 67% of Tebow's TD's came within 20 yards. I would like to see how other QB's fare. I don't have time to check, but I don't think it will be as high. Sanchez might actually because the Jets rarely had a big play go for a TD, unless it was on D or ST.

    These are my problems, I am not going to look them up because it is time consuming, and I don't expect you too either. It is a tiring process to do, and nobody really would want to do it. So, these are my problems with your tables and labeling Tebow an efficient player and then saying this means he can be an efficient, above average starting QB.

    EDIT: I judge QB by the same type of criteria. I don't think Tom Brady is a great long ball passer anymore. He has always struggled on deep balls recently and it is showing. Nobody brings it up since he is so accurate on short passes. He succeeds so well in that system because he so smart and accurate with 5-10 yards. Just like I think Tebow can be a good average QB in the league, but I don't see him succeeding. I am not discrediting everything. He is a clutch QB who can punish teams with his legs. When he gets in a groove passing, he is a good dual threat QB. However everyone overlooks how good his D was during the wins and his special teams. Same people who only give Sanchez credit for his playoff wins. The whole team played well, but Sanchez also played much better than his regular season. There is something to say there.

    Aslo you say I only discredit Tebow, I think you are wrong there. I think I credit him more than you discredit him. I just need to play devil's advocate in this thread to balance out the tebowmania.

    Additionally, I would be happy if Tebow became a great QB. I would be unhappy if he started this year because that would mean Sanchez was injured, Sanchez was playing terribly, or the team was playing terribly. This would mean the Jets would have a poor record.
     
    #228 displacedfan, Mar 29, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2012
  9. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    Why were the broncos the 8th worst team in the league in PPG if Tebow is such an efficient, elite scorer? Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Newton had top 6 scoring offenses.
     
  10. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Tebow decided to not run up the score on the other teams. He felt pity so he let the games stay close. He decided to let off the gas pedal just like all his incompletions are because his receivers drop the ball or he was making a smart football play. :)
     
  11. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    Maybe because efficiency is not the same thing as production and Tebow plays one position not 53. Points per game is a count stat, much like yards, not an efficiency stat. And quarterbacks still need other great players around them. Team scoring efficiency is about the team and requires the team, not just a quarterback.

    You think Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Newton were in the top 6 JUST because of them?

    Wes Welker
    Steve Smith
    Greg Jennings
    Greg Olsen
    Aaron Hernandez
    Rob Gronkowski
    Johnathan Stewart
    Deangelo Williams
    Marques Colston
    Jimmy Graham
    Etc, etc, etc

    These guys had nothing to do with it? Where does Denver's squad stack up with these names? Put Tim Tebow in Carolina's offense and see what happens. I can't wait actually because that's what the Jets plan on doing...

    PS: You should also know a bit about John Fox's offensive philosophy. He didn't get to a Super Bowl, NFC Championship game, home divisional game in Carolina or last year in Denver by trying to build a top 5 offense. If John Fox had his way, he'd have the NY Giants. The only way you'll ever see a John Fox offense lead the league is with a guy like Peyton Manning that takes the reigns away from Fox and the coordinator. Tim Tebow's season last year is almost a mirror season of the 2003 Carolina Panthers, including the 4th quarter comebacks and over time victories. Fox has a lot to do with those boring 3 quarters and amazingly exciting finishes. Tebow's not the first John Fox QB to be criticized for not being able to pass, yet set passing records in over time in the playoffs and Super Bowl. John Fox's Tim Tebow now holds the record for the longest pass completion in the wild card round and John Fox's Jake Delhomme holds the record for the longest play from scrimmage in a Super Bowl. And Steve Smith's double over time win in 2003 in a pass from Jake Delhomme came on an eerlie similar play as Thomas's TD catch against the Steelers. That's Fox. He'll put you to sleep and catch you sleeping when you least expect it. He'll run the ball for 50 times and then have the balls to call the most riskiest pass play under the highest of pressures. And it usually pays off big for him.
     
    #231 whichfan, Mar 29, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2012
  12. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    How did the Broncos win so many games with Tebow if they were bottom 8 in the league in scoring?
     
  13. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    They scored more points than their opponent.
     
  14. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    But if they were so bad at scoring, how did they score more than their opponents? I'm so confused.
     
  15. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Because Tebow will that defense to magically perform better because he was the leader. Players coming back from injury right when Tebow started had nothing to do it. Neither did the bye week for the coaches to look at and retool the defense. Tebow also gave a good pep talk to Matt Prater and showed him how to kick 50 yard field goals. Tebow also showed his defense how to strip the ball from opponents, especially in overtime to stop the other team from scoring. Don't you see Tebow is the ONLY reason and he does NOT do anything wrong from a football standpoint. We are not knowledgable enough to understand this, so we should just watch in awe and respect him.
     
  16. whichfan

    whichfan New Member

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    Who said they were bad at scoring? I never said that. They were a low production, high efficiency scoring team with low turnover %.

    These types of offenses will beat most NFL teams, because in the end it still generally comes down to who wins the turnover battle and execution. The only ones they cant are high production, high efficiency scoring teams with low turnover %. Patriots & Green Bay.

    A conservative, but efficient offense will beat even high production but inefficient offense like for example, the Eagles or even Carolina. They were high production, but they were very inefficient for the most part of the season. The amount of points they score simply couldn't make up for their mistakes: penalties, turnovers, and failure to score in critical situations, like the 4th quarter.
     
    #236 whichfan, Mar 29, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2012
  17. Jetfanmack

    Jetfanmack haz chilens?

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    Tebow when he gets inside the 20 is an efficient scorer. That's when the run-pass option becomes more difficult to stop, all you need is to get one guy open and find him and make a play. Plus, Tebow isn't a speedy QB, he's more of a runner with good vision and power, which plays better in the red zone.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets used Tebow in the red zone a good amount for that reason. The Jets were an efficient red zone team last year, but Plaxico was definitely a help there. Without him, Tebow could be helpful in the red zone putting points on the board. Denver has even used him there in the past when Orton was starting.

    Tebow did two things last year: move the ball on the ground and not turn the ball over. That's it. As a passer, he was not good. He's not accurate and he doesn't throw that much. So defenses didn't really expect Tebow to throw, and he couldn't throw well when he did. That's not good.

    He can be a useful football player. As a full-time starter, he has a long way to go.

    If he can play like he did in the 4th quarter in some of these games (when he was actually efficient and played fairly decently, maybe it's because the coaches let him play, maybe he's better in the clutch, maybe it's a fluke), then he'd be a lot better. In the 4th quarter, he was a decent NFL QB. In the first 3, he was horrendous.
     
  18. packersfan

    packersfan New Member

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    Overall a pretty civil discussion involving Tebow. I am actually shocked.

    Whichfan I understand that you are trying to show that Tebow isn't as bad as some people think and I agree with you on that. I think with more reps and work he could improve, but I don't think he can ever be a traditional pocket quarterback.

    Aaron Rodgers was terrible his first two seasons with the Packers and many Packer fans wanted to dump him, but he always could make every throw. I don't see that with Tebow. If you watch him in the pocket the minute pressure comes he wants to run with the ball. He isn't able to see the progressions well and his short throws are wobbly at best. Can he improve...of course and with hard work and the right coaching he might.

    I just don't think you should be trying to make this argument right now, just as I had to admit that Aaron Rodgers sucked his first two years. What you should be arguing is that without OTA's and without a lot of first string reps he hasn't had the time to develop and be given that chance. You might have an argument there, but to argue he is a great quarterback and that his stats prove it out just doesn't hold water.

    He is a winner and has a ton of heart, no one will argue with that. But carry on....it is fun reading and I have tons of time on my hands.
     
  19. Biggs

    Biggs Well-Known Member

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    This is a league that is desperate for more QB's the fact that Tebow went for a 4th and a 6th and he is one of the youngest QB's in the league says a ton about his ability as an NFL QB.

    If this was just about John Elway being a dope for unloading him, there are teams that would have lined up to give either a first or a second for him. 2 second day picks for an efficient NFL QB. GTFOH
     
  20. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    You can call it whatever you want, bottom line is that the Tim Tebow lead broncos were in the bottom 3rd of the league in scoring along with the Redskins, Bucs, Jaguars, Colts, Browns, Chiefs and Rams. Most of those teams were working with backup QB's last year - those are the QB's you should be comparing Tebow with. FTR, the Tebow lead Broncos scored fewer points per game than the Orton lead Broncos.

    You like to shit all over everyone on the Broncos offense and not give any credit to their defense but it's not hard to look and see that the Broncos only won 2 games in the regular season with Tebow last year where the opposing team scored more than 15 points.

    It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that it wasn't because of a highly efficient offense that the broncos won most of those games.

    Tebow is one of the best redzone threats in the league, and I hope he helps the Jets #1 redzone offense from last year improve to a dominant redzone offense.
     

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