Tim Tebow: An efficient scorer among the Elites.

I've been meaning to do this for some time and finally got around to putting it all together this weekend. There really isn't a whole lot to say as the numbers will speak for themselves but I suppose I can explain it a little bit and give you my two cents. It's most for you guys to look over and draw your own conclusion.

In football like in any other sport winning eventually comes down to possessions and scoring points. While Tebow's passing has been criticized to no end, the part that's rarely talked about is his ability to score touchdowns efficiently and protect the football. It was already obvious to me his efficiency was a big part of his success, which is no different than the way he dominated in college, but trying to put it all together took a little bit of work to say the least. Without putting his rushing and passing statistics together, as well as everybody else's numbers, it was hard to determine exactly just where he stands. I wanted to see how he stacks up in terms of scoring efficiency with the rest of the NFL, in arguably, the two most important categories: touchdowns and turnovers.

Below you will find a chart that encompasses most of the active quarterbacks from last season as well as a couple that may not get a chance to start this year such as Donovan Mcnabb. I also included Peyton Manning.

Although I also have it broke down by regular season, post season and 2011, in this chart I decided to do career stats, combined regular season and post season numbers included both rushing and passing touchdowns, as well as total turnovers, interceptions and all LOST fumbles responsible by the quarterbacks. To save space I've included all fumbles as part of the rushing fumbles. You will find interception efficiency, touchdown efficiency, as well as overall touchdowns to turnover efficiency ratings.

In short, it's a TOTAL scoring efficiency/ TOTAL turnovers analysis and ranking. The overall ranking is straightforward, and is based on the quarterback's combined rankings in the 3 main categories this chart focuses on: turnover efficiency, touchdown efficiency and touchdown/turnover ratios(production). Each placement was added up for a total value standing across the 3 stats. I decided not to place any weights on any of the categories and present them as is.

I think you will be surprised by some of the results.


Note: The averages at the bottom of each category gives you a good idea of where a quarterback is supposed to be.

Notice that some of the samples sizes are small for some of the newcomers, including Tebow, but as a rule of thumb ~600 plays is typically a full season for the average QB, depending on the offense they play in. It's generally a good enough amount to begin paying attention and an indicator of things to come.

It turns out Tebow has been pretty efficient dating back to 2010 since starting in the NFL in the categories that matter most. While I can't say I didn't expect that part, not even I expected him to fair so well across the board, considering the competition. In terms of scoring and protecting the football only Aaron Rodgers and Jake Locker fair better while Tom Brady is basically neck in neck. Jake Locker's stats are pretty much perfect as he has yet to turn over the ball in the NFL but they are also far too small a sample. However, since his 5 touchdown and 0 turnover performance is a pretty impressive start for a rookie I figured I'd leave him at the top.

Tebow's also in the top 5 in passing interception % as well as passing touchdowns % and touchdowns to turnovers ratio. Perhaps what's more surprising than Tebow, is some of the other so called "elite veterans" who appear to turn over the ball just as often as they score.

Cam Newton, also appears to be an efficient scoring machine, no small thanks in part to his rushing touchdown record breaking year. It appears dual rushing quarterbacks are not going to go anywhere any time soon although they may be getting far less credit than they deserve. When you add it all up, what they do with their legs is nothing to scoff at and tends to more than make up for what other quarterbacks may do with their arms.

While this isn't going to stop most people from arguing about Tebow's passing abilities and whether or not he is a good passer, that is clearly also not stopping Tebow for working his way to the very top of the charts among the elites as as a scorer and ball handler. He may not move the ball through the air up and down the field like some people expect, but when he does make plays, they often go for touchdowns.


EDIT: Updated with 2011 Season Stats:



PS: I apologize for any errors since I did most of this manually myself pulling the numbers by hand one by one from NFL.com. I did double check the numbers, but mistakes do happen, so this is by no means a bible. I do have the 2011, regular season as well as post season stats put together as well, but this chart alone took roughly half a day to put together so I'm ready for a break. However if you are interested in seeing it re-sorted or-re-ranked by a different category, that's much easier to do.