Of course its a matter of luck to a large extent (that or having the #1 overall pick) if there were any sure way to tell how good someone is going to turn out Brady never would have lasted until the 6th round, Romo would not have been undrafted, Brees wouldnt be a 2nd round pick etc etc, you roll the dice when you take a QB because no-one knows how its going to pan out and when you do that you have to get lucky. there is only a very small number of players capable of being a top tier QB, each year there is maybe 1 or 2 at the most and probably 15 teams in need of one so you do have to be very lucky to be the team to land him, because no-one knows who "he" is going to be. if you are terrible you can maximise your chances by having the #1 overall pick but i dont see how you could put that down to wise leadership, more terrible leadership.
he would be stupid not to sit tight and take $15m guaranteed if he didnt get a Kolb type contract offer. i suspect some team will overpay for him but there are no guarantees on that front (every team will be looking at the cardinals and thinking that they dont want to get into that position) and so it is a risk for the packers to try to tag and trade.
I agree - but only if that team offers him a significant amount of guaranteed money. edit: i dont actually care what flynn does - i just think it would be funny for him to sign the tender and sit tight and so totally screw over the packers cap position
No, he wouldn't. Any player that is content to just sit on his ass and doesn't want to play, isn't worth a damn either as a QB or leader. It isn't just about money. That is a morally bankrupt and cynical attitude.
If you really think that, then you are naive, my friend. There are probably teams other than the Jets that are that inept, but I guarantee you that the Packers, Steelers, the Pats, and probably the Ravens have core strategies including long range goals and plans.
Good post. I totally agree. The problem is that that kind of thinking starts at the top with the owner, and the Jets have had clueless doofuses as owners. Not one has had the intelligence to hire a smart, experienced football man to run the franchise. Leon had the right idea when he hired Parcells, but the wrong man, as Parcells was known to be a fickle, mercenary SOB who only cared about himself, and about 20-30 years too late. As a result of that stupidity, the Jets hired one clueless GM after another, who in turn hired one clueless HC after another, and philosophies and offensive and defensive systems kept switching every few years, and the few good players the Jets managed to acquire usually became poor fits, and the Jets would reach for other players to fit those new systems who often weren't very good. Because there wasn't a sound, solid, smart football man running the team, the Scouting Dept. has been mediocre and more often than not the Jets wasted their draft picks on poor players.
Do you think that these guys are paragons of virtue? everyone knows that players follow the money, there is no loyalty in the NFL on either the side of the players or the owners, only the fans. If the best offer he got in FA was, say, a $7m a year deal he would be an idiot not to sit tight and take $15m guaranteed. cynicism has nothing to do with it.
every one of those teams aside from the Ravens lucked into a top tier QB - what good would a strategy do you if you dont have an top tier QB? i will tell you what, lets just agree to revisit this thread in 3 years time when brady has (hopefully) retired and we will see exactly what the Patriots strategey manages to get them.
I disagree because I think by being a FA, he'd be given more job stability in the long run. I think right now, his stock is at his highest and he needs to try to get that long term deal now. With all these teams needing a QB, he'd be able to get a good deal, he'd be able to actually play and not sit around with a clipboard every game, and I don't think he's going to suck to the point where he gets cut after one year. Who knows what the teams will look like next year, between the draft and FA -- he could have much less to work with next year in terms of being able to drive his price up. I honestly believe the best option for him would be FA and sign a long(er) term deal.
I agree 100% - IF he gets a good offer from a team then certainly that would be his best option - all I am saying is that if he doesnt get a good offer then it would not be surprising (and would also be pretty funny) to see him sit tight and take $15m guaranteed!
I totally disagree. $7 million a year is nothing to sneeze at. If he sits for a year, he has the one year with $14.4 million, but then might be lucky to be even offered a starting job elsewhere, and even if he was, it could be for $5 million or less. Cynicism and greed have everything to do with that attitude. You can be in denial all you want. That doesn't change the facts.
You need to grow up, my friend. You're probably one of those who runs around whining that life isn't "fair" too, aren't you? It is NOT luck. Someone very wise (I forget who) one said that "Luck is when opportunity meets preparation."
i agree that there is an element of "you make your own luck" with the NFL but i do believe that there is an element of "luck" to it as well.
so the colts were prepared to suck when peyton was coming out? the giants were prepared to suck then have eli force a trade? the pats were prepared to have mo lewis cave in bledsoes chest? the broncos were prepared have elway pull the original eli move and refuse to play for the colts? i wish i could be that prepared
That is very different from what you were saying before. If I misunderstood you before, then I'm sorry, but I acknowledged earlier that there is an "element" of luck to it, and you didn't really pick up on that, and kept saying that it was "luck", thus implying that it was all luck.
It's not a matter of preparing "to suck." That's not what I said, but then you know that. With Eli and Elway, there was some luck involved, but both the Giants and Broncos were ready and willing to do what it took to get those players. They could have refused to give up that much to get those players. NE had drafted a QB (Brady) to develop. Even if he hadn't turned out to be a great player, he could have been a solid backup, or a borderline starter and the Pats could have traded him to another team for a pick, so in effect they made their luck to a large extent. If Parcells hadn't screwed the pooch, then Peyton would have been a Jet. The Colts were lucky he waited another year, but I don't remember the rest of the circumstances.
but thats the point.if brady is just another 6th rd pick then the pats aren't the pats.they were lucky. all teams have to have enough luck to be on a down cycle when the next great qb is coming out or lucky enough to find a brady deep in the draft
