Now before I start my thought process, I just want to say I hope I dont jinx this! With the recent news that the Bills are moving to a 4-3: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/31/chan-gailey-confirms-bills-switching-to-4-3-defense/ Upshaw's chances at being a Jet have increased dramatically. Essentially they were are biggest opponents at drafting the kid but now that they have moved to a 4-3 defense, which Upshaw just isnt meant for, they will most likely look a new direction (either LT, WR, or ILB). Now looking at the next 3-4 teams in are way prior to #16 we see the Cardinals and the Cowboys. Both can use another OLB but its not their biggest need. The Cards desperately need a LT or WR so Alshon Jeffery or Jonathan Martin/Mike Adams will certainly be on their list of who to draft in the first over OLB. Next we have the Cowboys who would like to replace Anthony Spencer but they have such big holes at OG, Center, and DB . I definitely see them going Dre Kirkpatrick, if not David DeCastro or Peter Konz at worst case over Upshaw. I still want to keep things in perspective and maybe some team falls in love with him as an ILB or pulls a Von Miller and drafts Upshaw into a 4-3 and plays him at both end and OLB but I think the Jets chances ,with the Bills almost out of the picture, at Upshaw are larger than ever before. (Excluded the Chiefs from the 3-4 teams prior to our pick seeing as they have a nice group of OLBs with Hali, Houston, and Studebaker and dont need an OLB)
I wouldn't rule out the Dolphins as a possible landing spot for Upshaw. I don't think it is all that likely but I can see him impressing enough to warrant consideration. I don't think the Phins will end up using a 1st on an OLB but they do need someone on the opposite side of Wake and he really would be a great fit. Overall though I agree with your thinking that with the Bills switching to a 4-3 it definitely helps our chances of him being available. At this point I still find it unlikely but no doubt a possibility.
Dolphins are also switching to a 4-3 so they're in the same boat as the Bills. The question is now, is Upshaw at 16 the right move over a guy with possibly more upside in Mercilus or one of the receivers to pair with Holmes.
A receiver in the first is an absolute mistake in a draft this riddled with WR talent, unless the guy ends up being a AJ Green/Calvin Johnson freak type guy who is going to just completely demolish teams. Look what Atlanta got by adding Julio Jones to their offense, he did nothing for them. Ryan still looks overrated sack of shit and hes got White/Jones turner in the backfield and fricken Gonzalez @ TE WR is not the way to go early, I have no problem drafting 1, possibly even 2 wrs as long as were talking 3-6th round
That's great news. I cannot wait to finally have a legitimate pass rusher on our team. WR can wait till round 2 (if not free agency)
Hmm this is some weird cowboys article evaluating 3-4 olb prospects based on "production ratio" http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2012...-outside-linebackers-in-the-2012-draft-ingram Then again its almost entirely based on sacks/tfl per games played so it leaves a ton to be desired
Has that been confirmed? this is the last I remember hearing about Dolphins switching to 4-3.. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/27/dolphins-may-not-be-changing-to-a-4-3-after-all/
Saw this a few days ago http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/02/04/dolphins-ready-for-transition-to-4-3-defense Its hard to tell just yet I guess. Although they do have Wake and may feel as though RT is more of a need.
There is no way on Earth Rex would let Upshaw slip by unless their is someone who has fallen dramatically.
I dont think upshaw would be drafted with the intent of making him the answer to the "pass rush". he appears to be more of a complete backer who likely fits the scheme very well. IMO they would still need an edge rusher and may have to move back into round 1 or higher in 2 to secure one - if the opporunity exists. i could definitely see 2 new starting Lbackers on opening day in the front seven.
Upshaw is the closest thing to a Lamar Woodey as your going to get, I would hope the Jets would jump all over a player like that.
LaMarr Woodley ran a 4.62 40yd dash... Upshaw is less explosive than that. Most of the plays Upshaw makes are because the QB hangs onto the ball forever going against a very though secondary. He won't be able to cover TEs very well in the NFL and isn't an explosive guy. Does he have a good football IQ and avoids giving up big plays? Yes. Is he solid against the run? Sure. Does he get to the QB when he holds onto the ball to long? Yes. But that's about all you'll get from him...
If you're gonna talk about explosion then throw out a 40 time as a reasoning, at least give Upshaw the courtesy of running one first. Not that I believe a good 40 time equates to good explosion. You can have both, one, or none. And if you're gonna penalize sacks/plays "because the QB hangs onto the ball forever", then you also have to penalize plays where lineman don't block or miss their block. I mean, it's nothing the defender did right, it was the offensive lineman. And in this day and age, do you really expect converted DEs to cover the TEs in this league anyway? You're pretty much asking them to cover a receiver. I don't see T-Sizzle or Demarcus Ware shutting down TEs on the reg either...
I dont know if it to this extent, but I agree somewhat. My view on Upshaw is that he is a COMPLETE player. He does mostly everything well, but doesnt do something in particular (like rushing the passer) to an Elite level. He can get to the QB occasionally- in my eyes, he’s an 7-10 sack guy (probably not even that once he enters the league). My one problem with him is that he isnt an elite prospect when it comes to doing the one thing this defense needs- passrusher who can consistently get to the QB. One thing that he would help out on is our run defense (underrated need) which wasnt up to Rex’s standards. We lacked a person who could set the edge once BT went down and Upshaw would do that and more IMO. I understand the love for Upshaw, and I would be absolutely happy with this pick, but I just dont see him being the Elite passrusher that we need.
If you watch him play, you get a really good feeling he is going to be just as productive as Lamarr Woodley. There are a lot of similarities between the two. I absolutely do not agree with only getting a sack due to the QB holding on to the ball to long, he has enough speed and beautiful technique with a lot of his pass rushing moves. Very quick with his hands. As far as the 40 is concerned, it is an over-rated statistic. There is a huge difference between track speed and football speed. ..but Even with that, right now Courtney Upshaw is listed to have ran a 4.65 40. Which is almost identical to Lamarr Woodley's 40 time. Now, obviously that doesn't matter until the combine and pro day work outs, but he is projected to run around 4.6 - 4.7 range. I really don't agree with your argument.
I know the 40yd dash isn't as importatn as Al Davis made it to be... what I wanted to emphasize is that I think many people think Upshaw has more athleticism and upside than I think he has. I expect him to hurt his stock at the combine... I guess we'll have to wait and see. PS I'm not rooting against him. By all accounts he sounds like a good guy and I wish him the best, I also hope he develops into one hell of a player if the Jets draft him... I'm just saying as of now I have my doubts about him.
