After a few days of reflecting on the 2011 Jets, the 2012 Jets will be very similar to the 2012 presidential election. At the end of the day, the 2012 presidential election will be decided by the state of the economy and the 2012 Jets will be go only as far as the offensive line. Everything that has gone wrong with the Jets this year has primarily been the result of the offensive line. The Jets entered a lockout shortened 2011 offseason with Brandon Moore hurt and rehabbing, while trying to incorporate a new starter at RT in Wayne Hunter. The Jets never had the opportunity to run out all 5 starters in any preseason game until the a few plays during the last game. Brandon Moore had no opportunity to rehab at Floral Park until the lockout ended and Wayne Hunter had zero opportunity to get upto speed in OTAs and work with Callahan and the oline. Offensive line play is the most complex orchestrated ballet in professional sports. It requires timing and precision of 5 men to execute either a run or pass blocking scheme AND adjust to what the defense is attacking with. This requires ALOT of film study and PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE - something the Jets did not have last year with virtually no offseason. The above problems were exacerbated by three additional issues - Rob Turner getting hurt for the year; Mangold getting hurt early in the season just as Moore was rounding into shape; and the lack of development by Ducasse (hopefully due to no OTAs, offseason and film study with Callahan). Over the past few years, the Jets have invested a lot of resources into the offensive line and their success (9-7, 9-7, 11-5 and 8-8) is a direct reflection of that. To become elite, the Jets need to Sanchez to develop, but to compete they need an offensive line. Two #1 picks in Ferguson and Mangold and big ticket FA signings in Woody and Faneca. Will an offensive line win a Super Bowl? No it won't, but it will make a crappy team competitive by hiding warts elsewhere on the team. The problem this past year has been a perfect storm of injuries, no off-season preperation and lack of resources devoted to the most important machine on the team. You can't be a "ground and pound" team if you don't have a "ground and pound" mentality and personnel. I think the Jets made the right decision to let Fanaca and Woody go when they did. I think Slauson has been fine and will ultimately be a much better fit at RG in 2012 or 2013. Moore will need to be replaced soon as his body is breaking down and a decision needs to be made ASAP at RT with Hunter. I have no problem with Hunter returning as a back-up for the Jets - he is fine as the versatile plugger with a low salcap hit that can step in for a game or two as he did at the end of the 2010 season. Unfortunately the Jets overestimated his worth as a starter after that performance. The Jets may bring him back in 2012 but it won't be at the $2.5 million salary he is slated for. As for Ducasse, he is fine as a run blocker as demonstrated by his play in the latter half the season coming in as the 6th offensive lineman. He can't move into the starting line-up at either RG or RT until he can pass block effectively. I personally think that of every Jet player this past season, he was hurt the worst by the lock-out. My only hope is that he can make up ground this season and compete for a job in 2012. Moving forward for the 2012, the Jets need to sign either a premier FA RT if there is one available in the market or draft the best RT prospect available. They simply can't go into the 2012 season without the RT position resolved - which means Hunter can't start and you can't trust the position yet to Ducasse. They also need to stongly consider expending either a 1st/2nd/3rd round draft pick on a LG. For reasons for that are pretty apparent - if you can bring a low cost/high ceiling LG to compete, he can take the position over in 2013 while providing quality depth in 2012. That means you also have the flexability to move Slauson to RG in 2013 to replace Moore and the organization can hedge its bets and cut bait on Ducasse if needed. The impact of the offensive line basically wrecked everything the Jets tried to do this year. With Hunter underperforming and Moore slowly coming back, the entire offensive was in a funk. The Jets had a tough time establishing the run because the o-line wasn't as effective and because Schotty did not committ to it throughout the season. Hopefully the Jets will fix the Schotty problem with his replacement. The Jets inability to effectively run also minimized Sanchez's strengths - his play action and rollout abilities. Instead they were forced to run an offense partly by design (Schotty's fault) and by consequence (the O-line simply wasn't performing) where they got down early to teams and had to throw to come back. This resulted in two CRITICAL problems. First, by throwing the ball so much it was clear Sancehz wasn't ready to carry the full burden. More importantly, Sanchez was under siege all year by the pass rush. With Hunter serving more as an MTA turnstile than RT, Sanchez was constantly getting beat-up with pass rushers in his face and tipped balls. This impacted the rest of the offensive line - why do you think Ferguson gave up so many sacks? The LT can only "hold" his guy for so long and a righthanded QB needs to be able to roll right to protect himself. Sanchez couldn't roll right out of the pocket because he would end up rolling right into the player Hunter let go by. Another impact of the RT breakdown is the Jets started shifting their pass protection to the right meaning that both Ferguson and Slauson were basically on their own. The end result was a systemic failure throughout the o-line due to a critical fault at the RT position. People can complain all they want about Sanchez regressing and he has to take ownership for his faults. However when you design an offense to "ground and pound" and then don't do that due to personnel problems on the o-line and questionable situational playcalling by the OC, that isn't putting your young QB in the best position to succeed. IMO, I think Sanchez progressed inspite of all these issues rather than being the cause of all these issues. There are also problems elsewhere in the offense - bad play design and players dogging it (See Holmes and Burress and sloppy route running) that also hurt the QB play - but much of that has been hidden for the past 2 years because the run game was so dominant. Additionally, the impact on the defense was also profound. Without those long grinding / time consuming "ground and pound" drives, the defense was on the field after alot of 3 and outs. The reality is that that defensive flaws of not enough speed at the LB position and lack of skill players at the safety position can be minimally disguised through scheming and playing with a lead. However, this 2011 defense wasn't "shutdown" at all and was exposed for what it was - an eggshell tough on the outside but soft in the middle. Don't hold your breadth as you "can't wait" for something that isn't. The defense is a problem that the o-line has masked and the best way to protect a rebuilding defense (yes the R word) in 2012 is with a return to the dominant run game. The Jets have alot of glaring holes but are certainly do not have as many problems as other teams. I personally believe they need to remain confident in Sanchez, work to fix his issues, transition to a new OC and committ the resources needed at LB and Safety on defense. However, by playing close attention to the offensive line and making the fix at RT can help mask and protect those other issues that plague the Jets. Provided the Jets have a solution at QB (and I think they do), and having closed the talent gap with blue chip players (Revis, Mangold, Harris, Ferguson, etc) they can now concentrate on rebuilding the rest of the defense and elsewhere without final 8 FA restrictions/lockout-salcap uncertainty and through a quantity based approach in the draft and in low/mid priced FAs. Ultimately the Jets are not in as bad a position as the Chicken Littles in the peanut gallery would have you believe. They are an 8-8 team, one year after back-to-back AFCCG appearances, drafting #16 with a QB who has progressed enough (especially when you factor his coming out as a junior with only 16 college games) to build around. The biggest mistake the Jets could make would be starting over or going after Peyton Manning. They would be much better served fixing the offensive line first, which will be a force multiplier that covers a litany of problems.
I don't see the similarity and I couldn't get past the comparison. There's is a lot of blame flying around, but I think we can all agree that our offense was terrible this year, especially when one considers that we had no major injuries at the skill positions. The offensive line is certainly an issue, but we have issues with every aspect of our offense. These issues concern QB, RB, WR, TE, turnovers, coaching, and our system. There is a lot of work to be done.
I agree with most points. The OL problems really screwed this team.... Abandoning the run like we did at times this year also screwed us. I think it's clear this team needs to run the football and control the clock to play their game.
It's the lack of range at safety and the inability to put a healthy running back on the field who can run, block and catch the ball and the O line.
Excellent, well thought out post. I agree with everything you say. The only caveat being using their first round pick to take a RT. I think signing a veteran FA is the way to go. Even a topflight RT draft pick would probably struggle adapting to the NFL and not be ready to start. That happened last year to Green Bay and several other teams. Kareem McKenzie is available as is Vernon Carey. They aren't great, but either would be a big upgrade over Hunter and Carey can also play OG. One of them could hold down the fort for a year or two while the Jets develop Ducasse or an OT they draft in a mid or lower round. In addition, three #1 picks on the OL is too many and would tie up too much of the cap leaving too little to try to pay playmakers on both sides of the ball. I blame Tanny, Rex, Schotty and Callahan (in that order) for the disaster of 2011. The Jets had been very lucky as far as injuries on the OL and had gotten consistent play from their starters and backups. Tanny was arrogant to go into a season coming off the AFC Championship game with no veteran dept after Turner went down. There were vets available. Opting for Hunter, Baxter and Schlauderaff was just moronic. He had also traded away too many draft picks over the years that could have been used on OL depth. Constant trading up creates holes on your team. Rex also needs to know enough about the game, the team and offense to know that it was foolish to go into the season with no veteran depth on the OL. Both Tanny and he were stupid to turn over 1/4 of the roster in a year where there were no OTAs, mini camps and a shortened TC, not to mention what they did in terms of destroying the chemistry and stripping the team of leaders. Schotty is just stupid and incompetent, as obviously both Tanny and Rex are in not realizing what a problem Schotty and the OL were.
I think the left side of the OL is set long term (Brick, Slauson, Mangold). I think Moore slipped big this year, the hip problem and lockout may have contributed to this. Nevertheless, I think it'd be wise to start looking for an OG to replace him and [obviously] RT was a problem all year. Rebuild the right side of the line, run the football, and we will contend.
I don't follow the 49ers at all but wonder, is their line, with the addition of 2 highly touted recent first rounders, now regarded as one of the better lines in the league today?
This was a very good post and very informative at least for me. I'm glad posters on TGG realize that we should focus on bringing in a veteran RT and not use our first draft pick on one. With all the bickering in out offense it would help to bring in vets especially at a position as complicated as the O Line. I thought I would never say this but Big Vlad doesn't give me minor heart attacks whenever I see him on the field. I'm convinced that with a good O line they will make everyone excel. I'm glad you mentioned the 3 and outs. Yes this wasn't the 09 Jets defense but its hard to play great consistent defense when they are on the field after a short break or constantly having to defend short fields. Once we get our O Line situated then we should focus on the other offensive positions such as RB and WR.
I agree the trading of draft picks is a problem, but it was a necessary evil to upgrade necessary talent at critical areas. Now that we have those players in place, Tannenbaum needs to revert to a quantity approach to fill in much needed gaps. The Jets were really hampered by those "final 8" restrictions as it really limited Tannenbaum's ability to reload even at moderately priced FA levels. An NFL team roster is approximately equally comprised of DPs, FAs and UDFAs. That final 8 restrication and salcap/lockout uncertainty hurt the Jets at a time when the roster was in transition. Over the past few years, the Jets have shifted money traditionally tied up in players like Jenkins/Fanaca/Ellis/Jones/Thomas to Revis/Harris/Mangold/Ferguson/Cro/Holmes. Overall Tanny has done a good job on hitting on his DPs but he needs to shift his talent acquisition philosphy now that the core moving forward is in place. For reference, at one point for a 4-5 year period when the Patriots were in the middle of their dynasty (and they hadn't shifted to a pass heavy attack to protect Brady), the Pats had 4/5 offensive lineman as 1st round picks. With the rookie salary cap, it is now even more attractive to go that route as the crazy rookie escalated salaries are much more conservative.
Er you do remember that Peyton Manning DID NOT want to be drafted by the NYJs so he stood in college another year :sad:
The 49ers have THREE 1st rd picks (Staley, Iupati, and Davis), ONE 2nd rd pick (Rachal) and a former 5th rd pick - FA acquisition in Goodwin (Former Jet pick from 2002). The were 7th in rushing offense but did give up the seventh most sacks in the league.
Great post. I love long, well thought out posts like this one rather than the one sentence put downs we see so much of. Thanks for the analysis - and I completely agree with you.
Two points concerning the OP, the first of which concerns the following section: "People can complain all they want about Sanchez regressing and he has to take ownership for his faults. However when you design an offense to "ground and pound" and then don't do that due to personnel problems on the o-line and questionable situational playcalling by the OC, that isn't putting your young QB in the best position to succeed." While there is certainly some logic to this statement, it only extends so far as the use of the term "best" allows. By that I mean that of course doing everything to make the situation with the OL and the playcalling, I would even add the capabilities of the receivers and running backs to take pressure off the Qb, would put the Qb in the BEST possible situation to succeed. That is nice in the abstract, but that kind of standard is not realistic in the real world. If for example you spend all your money and picks on the OL to attain that BEST possible standard, you probably will not have much left over for the other offensive positions, let alone the D or even the Qb himself. This is no small point. The fact is that it is counter productive to seek that best standard since it means that other areas will suffer. The best approach in fact is to have a balance that suits the team's overall strategy. this in turn means on a practical level that the Jets will not be near this goal anytime soon. Second, I disagree with the notion that the Jets' problems are mostly with regard to the OL. Yes, compared to what we have gotten used to in the last couple of years, the OL had an off year, for them, this past season. And yes the FO screwed up the situation by not getting adequate backup for Turner. I also think VD still blows, even if he can manage to get into some running play and it doesn't end up with a turnover or a different Jet player having a season ending injury. The fact is that a comparative decline by the OL this past year hardly means that the OL is below average, which is the implication of saying the OL is the main problem with the team. By any measure the OL is no worse than average as compared to the rest of the league, and in fact is above average. Compared to the below average Qb, the lack of a pass rush on D, the inability to cover receiving tight ends, team wide penalties and mental mistakes, missed field goals and crappy punts, fumbles and missed tackles, one can hardly say "it's the offensive line, stupid..."
I disagree that trading up was a necessary evil. It can be done occasionally, but not as often as Tanny has. I also am not sure that I agree that the "core" of the team is in place. When I think about the "core" of a team, I think about the most important positions, and the playmakers most. The two most positions in a 3-4 D aligment are the pass rushing OLB and NT. Do the Jets have great young players at those positions? No. Do they have young studs at WR and RB? No. Their QB is still highly questionable and even marginal at this point. In short, I don't think their core is in place at all. The final 8 restrictions are somewhat of an excuse. Yes, they caused some inconvenience, but there were moves that Tanny could have made but didn't. He knew they would be in place and could have adjusted his drafts accordingly. He could have focused on re-signing the Jets' FAs and filling needs with lower echelon FAs rather than wasting all that time pursuing Nnamdi, who would have had too much cap space tied up at CB anyway, and would have caused problems with Revis' next contract. They overachieved because of Rex's schemes and because of the newness of his approach. It happens all the time in the NFL. A strict, conservative, disciplined coach is replaced by a player's coach and the first year or two the team does great, then things go downhill quickly. I fear we are seeing that with the Jets. Unless Rex pulls his head out of his ass and wises up and starts being more of a disciplinarian and demanding accountability, he will be gone within a year or two and the team will be starting over yet again.
Great Post ! Totally agree with your analysis, and its the best one I have seen so far by a long shot.
Excellent post. Not a lot of people seem to be talking about our need for a center. Mangold being injured showed just how vulnerable we are at that position. What happens in 2 years when we need a player to step in and fill his shoes?
As quoted from BGA on the jetsblog, "Much has been made of the offensive line performance this year, but they do rank in the top half on both FO and PFF for pass protection," http://www.thejetsblog.com/2012/01/02/bga-jets-at-dolphins-2/#more-49527 Also, nfl.com stats list the Jets at 22nd with 1st being worst on how many times the Qb was hit. His sack number is misleading since he does not get rid of the ball quickly enough, and STILL managed to fumble 10 times, losing 8 of them. For all the problems with the OL, I don't see how they can be seen as the primary problem with the team.
