Thanks, I've heard nothing but good things. You've got a lot of VCash (whatever that is). Can I buy some from you? If it allows me to start my own threads or embed an image in a post, I need some. SAR I
@SAR I I don't think a split with Buffalo necessarily gets us in the playoffs at 10-6 even if everything else happens to make the scenario work. The Bills have already beaten Oak, KC, Phi and New England and lost to Cin and the Giants. So they're 1-0 in the division and 4-1 against our common schedule, not to mention 3-1 in the AFC. We're 1-1 in the division, 2-2 against our common schedule and 2-3 in the AFC. If Buffalo gets to 10 wins alongside us they will most likely eliminate us in the divisional tiebreakers. We need to sweep them to have a good shot at the playoffs unless they crumble.
Good point, but I'm in the "unless they crumble" camp. The Bills haven't dominated any facet of the game this year. They do enough to win, and they've got a ton of heart, but eventually that catches up to a team and they fall apart. Every season there's a team that opens 6-1 and is the talk of the NFL and then fails to make the playoffs. I think Buffalo is that team. And, being honest, if we all don't think Buffalo is that team then the Jets season is over. If the Bills are on the 'elite' list, we'll finish 8-8 at best and miss the playoffs, Buffalo taking our dance card. SAR I
Why not forget about both statistics and predictions and talk about performance. Who cares if 10 wins gets you in the playoffs, how will the Jets in 10 games? This team is not performing well enough to win 8 let alone 10. They are ill prepared, they lack intensity, and they're not on the same page on either side of the ball. Until all of that gets fixed, you can forget playoffs. If 10-6 gets them into the tournament, they're already half way to the total number of losses they can have. Based on what is on tape this year do far, they'll have 4 losses by 4:30 on Sunday, then travel to Buffalo after the bye, a team that's been playing better, more consistent football than the Jets. You combine that with the Jets' current road record and it's likely that they will have 5 losses after that game.....so until they look like they can even win 10, this thread is irrelevant.
this post reminded me of Solomon WIlcox on the radio the other day.... some caller called in about carson palmer and said "if you watch the tape..." and he cut him off and said "you don't have access to the tape. what are you talking about?". it was funny because it's spot on. the average joe thinks he knows what's really on tape and how the play is evolving but they have no clue what's really going on or where the breakdowns are or why
Agree completely that the Jets look like crap. It's one of two things: 1. They suck. 2. They're stuck in "we lost back-to-back AFC Championship Games and it's really boring to have to play well in the regular season so please just let us get in the playoffs anyway" mode. I'm hoping it's #2 and now that their backs are really against the wall, staring down the barrel of 4 conference losses, pretty much assured of no playoffs, the talent on this team will wake up and start playing to their abilities. We'll know at 5pm on Sunday. Based on what we've seen to date, I expect us to get blown out. But I'm hoping that last year's team will materialize and surprise everyone for a nice two week adrenalin rush for the bye. SAR I
also, i might add, it's great jtud is a prophet and the games don't even have to be played. thanks for saving us the trouble with your forecasting. i'll go to the beach on sunday since i know they'll lose
The Jets have 6 games on tape bud, what are you talking about? Regardless of whether or not you see every play from all-22, there is enough evidence of poor play available on the TV angle, TV replays, NFL Replay and NFL Playbook to know they're not playing well....and over 1/3 of the season is enough to establish performance trends. Over the first few weeks, you can juggle the line-up, give players pointers or make adjustments to accommodate your talent. After a while, there's only so much you can do and eventually you are who you are. All of that is on the game tape. And Solomon doesn't watch all the tape. Tim and Pat do. If you want insight, listen to Moving the Chains. When you hear their analysis of the Jets, you'll hear a lot of what I'm saying....that the Jets have a lot of improvements to make to get better but it's hard to see where those improvements will come from if they haven't already taken place. Go ahead and be a fan and watch all the games and hope for the best. I'll be watching too, but at a completely different level than you are.
The problem with this scenario is that those teams are already ahead of the Jets, and they have all been playing better than the Jets already this season, some with considerably less talent, on paper, than the Jets. Why should you assume, except for blind homerism, that any or all of these teams will fail and that the Jets improve when they haven't been playing very well. Right now, there are 8 teams with winning records in the AFC: AFCE: NE (5-1), Buffalo (4-2) AFCN: Baltimore (4-1), Cincinatti (4-2), Pittsburgh (4-2) AFCS: Tennessee (3-2) AFCW: SD (4-1), Oakland (4-2) The Jets and Houston are both at 3-3. FTR, somebody mentioned that "every year some team starts 6-1 and misses the playoffs". That's simply not true. Teams that start off 4-0 or 4-1 make the playoffs about 80% of the time. What frequently does happen in the salary cap era is that teams that have struggled to win in recent years very often "come out of nowhere" to make the playoffs. The most notable example in recent years was the 2008 Miami team that rebounded from that horrible 1-15 2007 season to go 11-5. Last year, KC came out of nowhere to win the AFCW. This year the Bengals and Bills are the most likely candidates to do that.
I love Tim and Pat, but Wilcox's point was valid even though i generally think he's a douche. and my point is, football is NOT a sport where the previous game is going to have bearing on the next. Unless you've been a jets fan for a few weeks, how many times have we looked good then played like crap or looked like crap then went out and played well? It happens all the time. it's happened MANY times in the rex ryan era. You wanna talk "trends" ? How about the fact that nearly every super bowl winner was a team that got on a roll late. How you start the season isn't really the difference. It's what team gets hot late. Your assumption is based on linearity. football is ANYTHING but linear, which is why your assumptions were stupid especially given the nature of these jet teams the past 3 years. yes i'm sure you can watch "tape" and see that we were without our best offensive lineman for 50% of the season, or how poor play calling has often completely stunted our offense, that doesn't mean it's going to perpetuate and yes, the level you watch games on is that of a SOJF, so fortunately i'm not watching it "On your level". You chastise this team yet fail to acknowledge that San Diego have to go west to east and play at 10am their time, along with the fact philip rivers has looked mediocre and the team's wins have come against the dregs of the NFL by slim margins.
Sorry my error, meant to type 4-1, just feels that way to me because we lived through: 1997 NY Jets - Opened season 6-3, no playoffs. 2000 NY Jets - Opened season 6-1, no playoffs. 2008 NY Jets - Opened season 8-3, no playoffs. SAR I
its the worst to first thing in the division, not just a playoff spot. Truth be told, I still think the Texans will be that team. If they can't win that division this year, they will blow shit up, Kubiak will be gone, Mario Williams could walk... As for the Bills, I don't believe their defense is good enough. Unless they force 4 TO's a game, they have been an embaressment.
I meant the worst-to-first in the division -- which results in an automatic playoff slot. I thought that the Texans couldn't lose the AFCS, either, but we all forgot to tell the Titans and Matt Hasselbeck that. All the predictions that Tennessee would suck this season stemmed from the assumptions that 1) Peyton would be playing for Indy and 2) Hasselbeck was finished. Like Kurt Warner when he left the Giants, maybe Hasselbeck has truly been rejuvenated. If he is, then the AFCS may be a real scrap. It's not inconceivable that both teams could get in. It's more likely, IMO, that the AFCN could put three teams in the playoffs. Everybody discounted Cinci because Carson Palmer was pouting in retirement, but they are a team built to compete with the Ravens and Steelers with an excellent D and good running game. Andy Dalton, the Ginger out of TCU, is at least as good a QB as a rookie as Sanchez was -- and he's got better weapons, most notably Cinci's first round pick AJ Green. That kid comes to play! As for the Bills, I will admit that their D scares me, especially their pass defense. OTOH, they can score a lot of points. The problem for the Jets is that they haven't played well on offense, and Ryan/Schottenheimer seem determined to run the ball even against vulnerable pass defenses like NE's. I'm not sure if that's a lack of faith in Sanchez, knowing the Jets WRs are crappy, or just bull-headedness, but the Bills D stops the run a lot better than it did last season, and the Jets' running game isn't as good as it was last season. If the Jets CS continues playing the short game, the Bills will put 8 up near the LOS and stop both the runs and the short passes more easily -- like every other team has been doing. IMO, the Jets will be lucky to split with the Bills.
You're doing the EXACT opposite of the purpose of this thread. 10-6 much more often then not gets you in the playoffs regardless of what other teams are doing this season thus far. The only reasons 10-6 doesn't I outlined in the original post, which you did not refute in the least. You are blindly making predictions instead of looking at the math behind it. If you take issue with my math, please refute my math and tell me where you take issue. This year is not statistically different from any other years. I used reason and logic to prove a fact, you are blindly guessing. It is only mathematically possible for 10-6 to not make the playoffs if: 1. AFC wins AFC-NFC series as an aggregate by multiple games. 2. A division winner has a poor record (8-8, or maybe 9-7). 3. There are very few teams that end up at or near .500 in the AFC. EVERYTHING else is irrelevant statistically. So no the regardless of what the Bills are doing this year, 10-6 still gets you in the playoffs unless at least two, and sometimes 3 of the aforementioned statistical anomalies occur.
What makes you fear SD? Is it a QB that has thrown more picks (7) then touchdowns (6)? Is it that SD is 4-1? Those wins came against teams with a combined record of 4-17 Those crappy teams they beat, they won by 7, 3, 10, and 5 points. Jets losses? Those teams have been a combined 13-4. They have beat crappy teams by 18, 29, and 3 points. Blown out? I think you are being pretty dramatic.
None of the Jets wins have come against teams with winning records, and 2 of the 3 have come against teams in the SFL Sweepstakes. The Jets wins have come against teams with all of 3 wins -- and two were using backup QBs. Moreover, against the worst pass D in the NFL, the Jets went 3-and-out 8 times. They went 3-and-out 6 times in their last game against the winless Dolphins. What exactly about the Jets' recent games makes you think they can beat SD?
Everyone of your arguments the flip side is applicable for the Chargers. In regards to going three and out (the only thing that does not apply to the Chargers) that is not because of a lack of talent. It is because of poor play-calling and poor execution. Those can change from week-to-week, talent can not. I am not saying put your mortgage on the Jets (never even claimed I think they'd win), I am saying that the Chargers are not the Packers to expect a blow out is absolutely silly.
AFC playoff picture for the Jets??? Well, just as Steve Young put it during the 2002 season.... "J...E...T...S.....Jets.....Season......Over!" Of course Young turned out to be quite wrong that year. But for THIS year... WE DONE....'cause....WE SUCK!
