Jets fans, I have seen a lot of people being very negative about the Jets playoff possibilities because of the claim that 10-6 or 11-5 will not make the playoffs and I am here to give some statistical background which shows that this is not very likely. First off, winning and losing in the NFL is a zero sum game. That means for every positive result for one team, there is a negative result for another. The record of all teams at the end of the season added up is .500. With that being said we need to consider some factors in the likelihood of a certain cut off for making the playoffs. For the last ten years in the AFC that cutoff has been 10-6 or winning your division. In the last ten years there have been 21 AFC Wildcard teams (2001 still had 3 wild cards). In that ten years only 3 teams did not make it at 10-6 and only 1 team did not make it at 11-5. This means that in all likelihood (about 82% over the past ten years) teams that are 10-6 or above make the playoffs. This statistic is often misused by Jets fans; saying that last year 10-6 wouldn't make the playoffs is completely incorrect as all teams 10-6 plus DID make the playoffs. To say 10-6 wouldn't have made the playoffs is injecting fictitious wins into teams without taking into account the losses. (remember, zero sum game) Now let's examine the last time a 11-5 team missed the playoffs. In 2008 the AFC had an over all record against the NFC of 34-29-1 and the San Diego Chargers won their division at 8-8. Lets look at these two things in two parts. Firstly AFC winning the NFC series by five games inflates the records of the AFC. Those five wins are now there in the AFC to off set equilibrium of the league. The AFC is currently at 7-9 against the NFC. Here is where prediction does come in, but it is my belief that the NFC will win continue this and likely win the league series. This depresses the records of AFC teams. Secondly the Chargers at 8-8 takes a playoff spot away from a well deserving team at 11-5. Even though their record would not even be good enough for the 6th spot by three games, they are allowed in the playoffs. This obviously screws over a 11-5 team. Will this occur this year? Perhaps in the South, so we will have to keep a watch on that division. Finally there are 12 out of 16 teams in the AFC at, above or within a game of .500. Now people are thinking “that's not good, more competition right?”. This is the exact opposite, the more teams are competitive against each other the more likely a 10-6 DOESN'T miss the playoffs. This is because the distribution of records would have fewer outliers, making those in the center in terms of record more likely to get in. TL;DR – 10-6 gets us in the playoffs over 80% of the time, this year being no different regardless of who we have or have not beaten this year thus far.
Thanks for the TL;DR part but hey, the thing is not about 10-6 not getting us in the playoffs because other teams in AFC might be better at least for me, the biggest fear is that a 10-6 will not get us in second place because this year we have three teams (bills, pats, jets) fighting for the two best records
Good overall post. Definitely relevant. But speaking of outliers, one thing you didn't mention is "suck for Luck." During most campaigns, a few shite teams will steal a few wins from playoff contenders. This year, with the feverish race for worst overall record, those upsets won't happen as often. The outliers will be at the bottom -- a handful of teams that are totally unmotivated to play spoiler. At the end of the day, this DOES mean a few more combined wins for the playoff contenders.
Heres something huge we have going for us. The Raiders Steelers and Bills are our top 3 competitors for a wildcard spot. The Raiders now have a QB even worse than Campbell at the helm in Carson Palmer, and the Bills lost to the absolutely pathetic Giants who struggled vs Arizona/Seattle/Rams. Then of course is the Steelers who struggled to beat the absolutely horrendous Jaguars and the heart of their team in Polamalu had a concussion last week (he has a history of head injuries) So basically all 3 of our biggest competitors looked like absolute horse shit last week and have new injury concerns. Of course how much this is canceled out by the fact that we played like asshole vs the Fins, who knows.
Even if we are not in second place, you are aware that two wild card teams can come from the same division right? You are completely missing the point in the post. 10-6 will get you in the playoffs 82% of the time over the past ten years, and this season is not likely to be any different.
I think you (and definitely the media) are over estimating the "suck for luck" factor at least at this point in the season Del Rio for the Jags, Sparano for the Phins, are still playing for their livelihoods, so I doubt they start really tanking until Luck is a much more real possibility later in the season. This will also probably coincide with an in season coaching change for one or both teams. I am not discounting your argument as a whole, just at this point I think we have to wait and see what happens in the AFC before really considering that statistically significant.
I think a lot of this teams will slow down like the Bengals, Titans, Bills, Raiders. They are the only teams that stand between us and a playoff spot imo
I think if Sparano wins a game right now he gets fired on the spot. If he doesn't win a game all season he gets fired at the end of the season. There's really no play there for him to win a game and survive at 0-5. The only reason he has not been replaced yet is that the Fins really want Luck and they really don't want to have a coach other than the guy they were planning to fire anyway lose a lot of games to do it.
Palmer doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the players, is out of football shape, hasn't had any otas practices or anything, and likely won't be in sync w any of their receievers at all for the rest of this season.
I hope you are kidding. If not you know nothing about the contemporary NFL. Throwing games in the NFL is subtle, and you can't do it for 10+ games. Throwing games in the NFL is putting in your third string QB to start the last two games "to see what he can do", and resting your starting WR, and RB "because they tweaked their hammy" and knowing you are going to get destroyed. You just can't do that for 10+ games. Last 2-3 certainly, but not 10+ games. This might be crazy to think, but the Dolphins (as well as the Colts and Jags) are in fact trying to win games right now, they are just terrible teams. "Suck for Luck" only exists in the media at this point in the season.
You can throw games easily when you have a lame duck head coach and a backup QB on the field. Up until this year there's been no good reason to throw games in this way because no QB prospect since Peyton Manning has been hyped the way Luck has. Even Eli Manning was clearly seen as a lesser prospect than Peyton. Andrew Luck is seen as the same kind of prospect that Peyton Manning was when he came out. He's expected to take over the reins immediately and play unless he winds up in Indy with Peyton Manning already there. Having Cam Newton and Andy Dalton play so well as rookies is just going to raise the expectations to another level at this point. The idea that no NFL team can throw games to improve draft position is wrong. They just can't state that that is what they are doing. I'll guarantee you that there are conversations in Indy and Miami right now about exactly how to pull off 0-16 to get Luck. Having the Lions already break the 0-16 barrier means the stigma attached to going winless is less than it was.
This is conspiracy theory crap that I shouldn't dignify with a response, but since you have "brady sucks" in your name I'll throw you a bone. In addition you are not even reading my responses because I explained in detail how teams tank games subtly. Miami, Indy, and Jax are not currently throwing games. There is no debate on this, it is a fact they are attempting to win games. They are just very bad teams. There is a difference between "trying to lose" aka "throwing" and not putting yourself in the best position to win right now. Is Matt Moore the best QB out there? No, but it is not worth draft picks to attempt to salvage an already wrecked season, hence why neither Colts nor Dolphins made a QB move (JAX is still evaluating Gabbard). Secondly as I mentioned "throwing" a NFL game is a subtle art form. (play 3rd string QB last three weeks, rest star players with dubious injuries, etc.). You have not suggested anything other then the fact that they play bad that they are "throwing" games. Under your assumption Matt Moore, Reggie Bush & Co. are somehow holding back, which is not true. They are not a good football team, plain and simple. And lets indulge your incorrect statement for a second, Sparano gets his contract guaranteed whether he is fired or not, so he'd actually want to win to save some face. Further indulging your incorrect statement, let's say Sparano even for some bizarre reason WANTS to lose. What is he supposed to say to the team. "I know for 15-20 of you this is a contract year, but I am gonna make you look as bad as possible this year"? Throwing a game is subtle, and can't be sustained for 10+ games, pure and simple.
Nope, not at all. Look at Palmer last year, supposedly a bad one. Sanchez would kill for that completion % and Yardage and TD passes. Cincy sucked, Oakland is an up and coming team. Raiders paid too much, but improved at QB. They will be getting the other WC spot in the AFC.
Guys we should lose all the rest of out games so we can get Andrew Luck then trade him and Darelle Revis for Ryan Mallet.
That was on a team with players he was used to, a system he was used to, a playbook he knows, otas, being in football shape, none of which he now has. He has to pick up EVERYTHING on the fly, conditioning included while the whole nfl is mid season form, and it quite frankly won't happen
