It's become rather convenient to write off the New York Jets after a 2-3 start that has left them multiple games behind the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. While the Jets' playoff chances have certainly taken a hit, this is still very much the same team that made a run to the AFC Championship Game in the past two seasons. By our DVOA rankings, the Jets come into "Monday Night Football" against the Miami Dolphins as the sixth-best team in the NFL. The Jets' formula since Rex Ryan has taken over -- winning with defense and special teams -- is still largely intact. Their defense ranks third in the NFL by our metrics, and their special-teams units rank first. Since 2009, they have never been below sixth in either category. In other words, as long as Darrelle Revis and New York's group of impressive linebackers is still functioning, this Jets team will be dangerous through the remainder of the season. Defense Ryan is a premier defensive mind and he'll continue to find ways to bring pressure and complex concepts into a stellar pass defense. That isn't to say that the defense isn't without question marks, though, as the defensive line has really suffered from injuries and defections. In fact, the Jets have managed that third-place ranking on defense despite ranking 22nd in run defense. Whether the point of reference is the long drive the Patriots had at the end of last week's game to close the Jets out that was built solely on runs, or the 171-yard destruction that Darren McFadden carried out against them in Week 3, it's clear that the Jets have had a rough time stopping the run so far. The good news for New York is that in a passing league, that no longer is as hard to hide (nor as big of a deal) as it would have been 10 or 15 years ago. The better news? The Jets' run defense has been in the top 10 of our DVOA ratings in each of the two previous years of Ryan's tenure. That in no way ensures a rebound, but if anyone knows how to patch problems on a defense, it's Ryan. Offense A more legitimate concern for New York is its offense. Mark Sanchez's statistical profile hasn't lived up to his clutch playoff performances quite yet, but after some steady improvement in his sophomore year, there were hopes that he could take another step forward this season. Instead, Sanchez has thrown five interceptions and lost four fumbles and his minus-4.0 percent DVOA places him 24th in the NFL, behind players like Curtis Painter, Andy Dalton and Rex Grossman. However, while New York's pass offense as a whole does not look pretty, much of the damage done to its overall ratings came solely against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. If you remove that game from the spectrum (it carried a not-for-the-squeamish minus-97.9 percent DVOA), the Jets' pass offense actually has a 37.3 percent rating in all other games this season -- a number that would put them seventh in the NFL. Of course, that game is impossible to unsee, but it was also a combination of factors that is unlikely to occur again. There are very few defenses like the Ravens', very few games that wind up featuring an undrafted rookie center getting destroyed by Haloti Ngata on a play-by-play basis and very few games in which defenses outscore offenses. We're not calling it a total aberration, as Sanchez has had plenty of bad games in the past, but it may not be as telling as you'd think. One awful game does not a season make, and it was a little more understandable given the circumstances. That leads to the real problem the Jets have going forward: They don't seem to trust Sanchez to win the game. While you can make a good argument that they shouldn't trust him given his statistical line over the past two years, the run offense that New York normally relies on is no longer there. With Damien Woody retired, the Jets have had problems at right tackle. Wayne Hunter isn't in Woody's league as a run-blocker and leaves a lot to be desired in pass protection. Missing Nick Mangold for a few weeks also hurt. Throw in the continuing decomposition of LaDainian Tomlinson's skills running next to the enigma that is Shonn Greene, and the Jets are having problems cobbling together the decent run offense they had in 2009 and 2010. If the run game problems aren't correctable, the Jets will have little choice but to abandon the ground-and-pound style of offense they've run the past few years and see what Sanchez can do. They tried doing that a bit at the start of the season, which led to dissension in the ranks and an attempt to return to ground-and-pound against New England. But if "ground-and-pound" continues to mean a couple of Greene carries up the gut that leave them in third-and-long, they're going to have to throw the ball and put the onus on Sanchez to score points. The Jets are, in many ways, just like the Jets of the past two seasons. A three-game losing streak -- all on the road -- to three strong teams (Oakland looks like it counts as one this year) is neither a reason to write them off nor something to be ashamed of. The Jets are a playoff contender on talent alone right now. Their chances of catching Buffalo or New England, however, depend largely on head-to-head results and regression by opponents. Even if Ryan can fix the problems that have popped up early in 2011, the Jets will need help to make another playoff run. http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7110659/nfl-new-york-jets-their-issues-still-talented-team
David Harris and Bart Scott are pretty good on the inside and Calvin Pace is still a good pash rusher on the outside.
I've said all year it'll take by week eight to truly know where we stand... No training camp hurt no doubt but... Give it time things will mesh as we win
This would be worth more if FBO had actually watched the games instead of just crunching the numbers. People who have watched the games understand that the offensive line is really mediocre even with Mangold in the middle anchoring things. That fact alone means that this Jets team is nothing like the teams in 2009 and 2010. Then you add in the fact that the Jets can't stop the run this year and you have to be asking how exactly this team is going to win enough games to make the playoffs. The answer may be out there but it's certainly not apparent at the moment.
This to me is the essence of the offensive problems. No one has any idea if Sanchez is the problem, because the OC refuses to let him take control of the reins. Unless and until that happens the Jets will continue to not be quite good enough to take the last few steps, even if everything else comes together well. That even applies to the OL problems - an effective offensive strategy can make up for a lot of weaknesses, even mediocre offensive line performance.
I agree and I just posted in another thread ... the next time we see the Pats I expect to be 5-3 with them coming in at 6-2. winner leaves the field in first place.
Im more excited for tommorows game than ever. Im sure everyone on the Jets is just ready to get that win and put the past behind us all.
No strategy in the world can make up for getting dominated in the trenches. And that is exactly what has happened to them. They went into this offseason with an "outside-in" approach with their ridiculous pursuit of nmamdi and the Plaxico signing. It all starts up front, its proven time and time again. Its like in baseball when at the end of the year everybody once again realizes that without pitching nothing else matters. The o-line is the backbone of an offense, and right now the Jets have a broken back.
to be fair, nobody expected the OL to take such a giant step backwards especially because Hunter played well in the postseason, and we infused plenty of youth into the DL, we knew it would take time to get MoWilk and Ellis up to speed in part because of the lockout. So we felt we had the inside secured. We knew we needed the outside pieces to have success, but so far, we have gotten nothing outside the Jags game from the outside pieces we paid big bucks too (Holmes/Cro. Plax played well against Dallas and Oakland)
Agreed on most of what you said. Except for Cro. Cromartie is by far the most overrated player on this team.
I like the optimism in the article. But there is no way the Jets are the 6th best team in the NFL right now. New England Buffalo Detroit Green Bay Baltimore San Francisco Oakland New Orleans Pittsburgh San Diego There are 10 teams off the top of my head that have clearly shown themselves to be better than the Jets right now. I don't know what sort of "metrics" they used to decide that the Jets are #6 - doesn't make much sense to me.
Buffalo, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, San Diego and Oakland are no better than we are. Most are worse.But feel free to exaggerate our issues.
You are what your record says you are !!!!!! Clearlry these teams are better then the Jets right now...Like the Pats yesterday, good teams find a way to win at the end, the Jets at this time are failing to do that.....
I know this is off topic, but GB is the 4th best team, behind Detroit and the Bills? Wow. Also, I think we're a better team than SF and SD, although, as someone just stated, you are what your record says you are.
I can see how you would come to the conclusion that that is what I was saying. My mistake. I didn't mean for that list to be rankings....I certainly don't think that Buffalo and Detroit are the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the NFL.
Oakland beat the Jets and has a better record than the Jets; Campbell going out might doom them, but as of right now I would say they are better than the Jets. San Francisco is 5-1 and just beat an undefeated team; right now they are far better than the Jets. For all of Pittsburgh's troubles on the offensive line, they're no worse than the Jets on that side of the ball, and their defense has played far better than the Jets' defense has, so I would say that they're also better than the Jets. For Buffalo and San Diego it's hard to say, but I don't see much evidence that they're worse than the Jets. It isn't only that your record says who you are, it's also how you've played, and the Jets have not played very well. Hopefully that all changes now, and in any event all that matters is the final W-L record, but to me the Jets are no better than middle-of-the-pack so far this year.
