Cimini's Keys to the Season

I know everybody hates Cimini because he is viewed as anti-Jets (I actually think he just like to stir controversy), but I thought this was a pretty good write up with some interesting nuggets. Pretty spot-on assessment IMO.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/6921/ciminis-10-keys-to-the-season?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Cimini's 10 keys to the season
September, 8, 2011

The Jets' goal is to end the season in Indianapolis, playing for the Super Bowl. Here's a road map -- 10 keys to the 2011 season:

1. Mark Sanchez needs 2.5 more completions per week: He completed only 55 percent of his passes last season. Ideally, the coaches would like 65 percent, but that's not realistic. Only one active quarterback made a 10-perent jump from Year 1 to Year 2 or Year 2 to 3, according to the Elias Sports Bureau -- and that was Vince Young, of all passers. If Sanchez can get to, say, 63 percent, the offense would function more efficiently. That, based on last season's attempt total (32 per game), breaks down to 2.5 more completions per week. It doesn't seem like much, but it's harder than it sounds.

2. Shonn Greene needs at least 272 rushing attempts. He posted 108 and 185 in his first two seasons, but now he's the lead running back and it's time to take it up into the feature-back category. Why 272? That's 17 carries per game, which is about the average for the eighth- to 12th-ranked rushers. If Greene can be in that neighborhood, it'll mean he's healthy and productive -- and the Jets can't win if he's not healthy and productive.

3. Dramatic improvement in the red zone. Their success rate last season was an awful 44 percent, 28th in the league. In an effort to get better, they hired offensive guru Tom Moore as a consultant and signed 6-foot-5 receiver Plaxico Burress. The Jets' goal is 60 percent, which probably would put them in the top 10. That might be on the ambitious side, but if they could get it up to 55 percent, it would make such an impact on the overall game. Just think: If they could take one possession per game and score a touchdown instead of a field goal, they'd take their 22.9 ppg (2010 average) to about 27 ppg -- big difference.

4. Don't abandon Ground & Pound. Rex Ryan is talking about airing it out more than in the past, but it would be a mistake to forget about their run-oriented roots. Their run-pass ratio was 51-49 last season, and it would be okay to become slightly more pass-heavy, but it would be wrong to try to be something they're not. Yes, Sanchez cut down his interceptions last season, and he's ready for more on his plate, but let's not forget he led the league with 15 dropped INTs. With Burress, Santonio Holmes and Derrick Mason at receiver, it'll be tempting to chuck it around, but they should remember they're a defensive-minded team that relies on a ball-control offense.

5. Keep the big fellas healthy. Sometimes a football team needs to be lucky with injuries, and you can definitely include the Jets in that category. They're perilously thin on both lines and at linebacker. Consider: Their backups at the five OL, three DL and 4 LB spots have a combined total of ZERO NFL starts. That's scary. A concentration of injuries at any one spot could wipe out their season.

6. Play less man-to-man and more zone. As everybody knows, the Jets are predominantly a man-to-man team on defense, but they became predictable last season. A couple of players told me the same thing. Opponents burned them with quick-hitting, short routes to slot receivers, backs and tight ends, sometimes exploiting the man coverage by using "bunch" formations and "pick" plays. Toward the end of the year, especially in the playoffs, they used more zone-based coverages, confusing Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. They should learn from that; it will add another dimension to Ryan's complex system.

7. Improve on third down. The Jets held opponents to a 37-percent conversion rate, which isn't half-bad (10th), but those numbers are deceiving. They allowed more big plays on third down than any team in the league -- 22 plays of at least 20 yards, according to Football Outsiders. That is shocking for a Ryan-coached defense. Some players blame communication issues in the secondary, which had three new players in prominent roles -- CB Antonio Cromartie, S Brodney Pool and nickel back Kyle Wilson. They can't use that as an alibi anymore because their top nine DBs all have at least one year in the system. S Jim Leonhard said the on-field communication has never been better, and that should help them on the "money" down -- third.

8. Show up in the first quarter. This has to be one of the stats of the year: The Jets went the final 15 games (counting the postseason) without scoring an offensive touchdown in the first quarter. How is that possible? Sanchez is a notoriously slow starter. To his credit, he orchestrated five fourth-quarter comeback wins, but it was tight-rope city in a few of those games. Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer needs to be aggressive early in games, forcing defenses to react to them -- not vice versa. Sanchez's lack of experience isn't an excuse anymore; he should be able to execute new wrinkles on a weekly basis.

9. Own September. The Jets need a fast start -- we're talking 3-0 -- because the schedule gets tougher in October (Ravens, Patriots and Chargers). They should be able to jump out of the gate quickly because of two factors: They're healthy and they have continuity (18 returning starters), two huge factors in the post-lockout world. The Jets didn't make any coaching changes and didn't change their playbook, and that should give them an edge on teams learning on the fly -- i.e. the Cowboys' defense under new coordinator Rob Ryan.

10. Beat the Patriots -- twice. Ryan challenged the rest of the league to make like the Jets and beat the Patriots. That would help the Jets' chances of winning the division, but they shouldn't count on that kind of help. They will need to take matters into their own hands and sweep the series from the Belichicks.

Cimini prediction: 10-6, AFC wild-card berth.