That's my concern Fen. I'm hoping that US Air re-routes us. I don't change planes but it is a hour layover sooooo...
I would guess so Cman but Charlotte is a pretty big hub right? The city of Charlotte while well west of the storm will be getting some decent rains..but since its a major connecting hub...would expect delays there. You will get out..hopefully on time?
As amazing as it might seem, if this link is the correct track...besides grazing the Outer Banks...Cape May, NJ is the landfall for this storm. Just scroll the map upward. http://www.wunderground.com/wunderm...hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0
Looks like it will miss Myrtle Beach now? Of course that can change on an hourly basis. That path will strafe the hell out of the east coast though. TONS of rain and wind.
Its so far off the path of Myrtle Beach now Fen that its safe to say that area, besides major beach erosion, is completely safe. Trends that severe back to that area never happen. The models seemed pretty locked in now..and perhaps a swing of 75 miles is possible....not probable. Myrtle is about 175-200 off the main path..so I would say safe.
Yeah, a mile inland. I worry most about the old growth trees when these things come along. The houses in her community are built like tanks, but those trees can do damage when they come down.
I'm about 10 minutes west of Norfolk, VA. I'm hoping this bad boy shifts a little more east and we just get a ton of rain out of it. Also planned to go to the Outer Banks in 3 weeks. Hope the place we're staying still exists then.
The Outer Banks trip might be a problem. Still three weeks out but that area has landfall written all over it.
Another great radar of the eye. You can see from this when you follow the eye that it does everything it can to remain over water..looks like a pinball every time it hits land..bounce..bounce. Eventually mother natures steering directions win out and its forced on land...or stays just off the coast. When watching the landfall..you will always see the eye of a storm fight to stay over water before making landfall....this radar shows exactly why and how. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html
My brother is supposed to fly down for our annual FFB draft party this weekend..... originally we were concerned with a FL washout, now it may be because of a LI hit on Sunday. I just hope we get some big clean surf :smile:
They are still calling for heavy rain and wind,so we'll get something. But most likely Tropical storm force winds,not enough to bring those trees down.
Call me crazy, but from that last link it looks as though the eye has dipped a little south and veered more west i the last hour, no?
Even if the eye comes right over the OBX, I wouldn't call it landfall. I doubt it would weaken the storm in any significant way. It would actually be sad if the storm doesn't turn inland at the OBX, there's not much across the sounds but a hundred miles of woods and wetlands and very little damage to inhabited areas. Instead, it looks like this one will graze the Banks and keep going up the seaboard. And I hope all my friends up there are taking this serious. And Jay, the TV meteorologists are saying Charlotte won't get any rain from this, but there could be rain coming from a front heading East, not connected to the hurricane.
That is true Hiker..crossing over the Outer Banks would do little if anything to weaken the core eye of the storm. I just meant if it did cross over, his plans for a vacation house down there might be a problem. Didnt actually check for Charlotte's weather but did now...you are correct. No real mention about rain for that area...still might be a problem because of the hub connections though for delays from other areas. I posted a bit earlier that you are dead on about points north. The problem with path that grazes the Outer Banks and makes no other land fall until Cape May..or if it were to just miss Cape May then Long Island, is two existing features can diminish a storm....land and Ocean temps. There are other things like wind sheer etc..but none of those will probably come into play. So all you have is land and water temp. If it just passes over the Outer Banks, then you have no help there. The water temps, although cooler up north, are still 80's in Carolina, upper 70's Virginia and mid 70's Maryland/Jersey. Thats a little help but not much. You are totally correct...points north of the Carolinas need to really watch this because its screaming perfect path if it were to every happen to places like Jersey/NYC. Really need to watch this.
Two reasons for that G..one is the natural wobbling an eye goes through but still mantains its current track. The other is the reason I posted that link. Why that wobbles in that spot is its bouncing off land. The eye of a storm will do all it can to seek out and stay over water...thats what makes that link so cool.
I think it was just wishful thinking on my part. I live on LI and I've been saying we're overdue for a hurricane for years now. I was only 8 when Gloria hit, and that was pretty fucking bad. Didn't have power for a week, widespread damage, eye of the storm right through our town, a person killed two blocks away....Bojangles called it before....I'm a homeowner now, I'm a little worried about this. It's still a couple of days away from being a definite but all these models I'm looking at aren't good. hahah...looked at that link again, and it looks like an old Atari game (pong?) where the eye is a ball and its just bouncing off land. Pretty sick.
I hear you G. Long Island is a serious place to watch..very. Because of the counter clockwise rotation of storms, it will just through ocean water on to the Island for a long period of time. Then you get the winds. You will probably even experience the eye of the storm...dead still outside...and then boom...the wind comes from the Northwest, opposite direction. Hey, time can change the path and hopefully it does. I get the homeowner thing. What used to be cool becomes a huge worry. I will keep monitoring what the real experts say and post it here.
Here is what you dont want. This is the GFS model showing what it will be like on Sunday at 430pm. Those tight lines together represent wind speed...so tight you cant even see under them..but that is Long Island. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif
