Just to add, last year Ellis SHOULD have been a rotational D-lineman. The 3 starters on the line, however, played far too many snaps. I like that Rex feels he can implement more of a rotation this season; hopefully the play of that rotation matches his expectations.
Of course they all don't work out, but to say none are going to workout because they're all question marks is foolish. If the film was troublesome, a move would have been made. If none were going to work out, then the Jets would be in a lot of trouble. Actually, they'd be the same team we've seen before Rex got here if they didn't work out. But this is what the Steelers and Ravens do - those who were groomed to take a spot step up and play well. Its the AFC North way, and its been brought to NY. It's a fun concept. I don't fear the potential going unfulfilled due to who is coaching this team. Not just Rex, but the position coaches as well. You rely on them to play their role. McKnight as a change of pace back, and LT as the 3rd down back. LT will keep his legs if he's not getting 350+ touches (receptions and carries). The Jets are going to have 4 RBs run the football over the course of the season. No one needs to be a hero or a workhorse. Everyone just needs to do their job and the running game will be just as efficient. And yes, they're going to do their job. This CS is elite in the NFL. Trust their judgment. I'm aware percentage of snaps and the GS stat. Pace and Thomas are the starters not only due to playing the first down, but because they're out there the most. Same with DeVito, Pouha, and Ellis last season. Taylor was supposed to play 33-50% of the snaps, but Calvin Pace was hurt all season. So if Westerman plays 40% of the snaps, I don't think its a stretch to see him not be liability out there. He looked good as a rookie early on in 09. He got hurt last year, and Taylor took reps away from his progress. Mike Pettine mentioned that in his press conference a couple of days ago. He's been dominating in practice. Preseason should help justify his hard work, but he'll be playing against the second teams because preseason is vanilla defenses. No exotic sub-packages are usually involved. It'd actually be nice to see him spell Pace or Thomas in week 3 of the preseason. That dominant defense question is pretty funny. Rex Ryan has never had a defense ranked under 5th. Why all of the sudden will it suck because of no surefire pass rusher? That's horrible logic. This is a pressure based defense. The sack stat is still overrated when it comes to how this defense operates. Taylor's pressure production from last season isn't something that a young player can't reach. Understood, but if these new players were an issue, someone would have been brought in or retained. Pryce was jumped on because he can play 15 snaps at the end of the game and help the pressure on the QB. The defense needed that last year. Wilkerson has walked into camp and impressed to the point where he's the automatic starter. If there was an issue, Mike Tannenbaum would have made a move. That's why Taylor was brought in last season. Westerman wasn't ready, and there was no one else on the roster good enough. I didn't see an issue when Shonn Greene ran off the right side to seal the game for the Jets in January, when he ran off of Wayne Hunter. After the onside kick, they ran off the right side twice. Hunter nailed his job. That's January football, at Foxboro. They took the "unproven" Shonn Greene and ran him at the "unproven" Wayne Hunter's assignment. I don't think its far fetched to say Hunter is going to do just fine. Woody he is not, but a difference that changes the dynamic of the running game is something I don't see happening. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets..._BgaSMlz997Gd6cp7eOoY9N?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME= With the improvement of Sanchez, the player this team is built around, the numbers should improve. His progression will naturally make those numbers increase, regardless of whether its the 2010 trio or the 2011 trio. Cotchery has yet to be picked up by a team. Edwards is on a shit SF team. What does that tell you? Mike Tannenbaum knows best. Edwards is a good WR, but he's not great. Here's something that is true but will never be believed by Jets fans because they don't watch enough Ravens games - Mason is better than Braylon. Edwards is taller, that's it. Mason is so consistent he's going to be the new love of the fanbase, even at 37 years old. He's almost a HOFer. That's not optimism, its a fact. He's been that good for 15 years. I'll answer that with a question - how does a team with so many returning players and so much continuity get questioned due to role players and a few departing vets who are at the end of their careers? It doesn't make any sense to think they're not as good because the younger players are getting a chance to play. I can easily say those vets were going to return and play like shit and its the same speculation. This is the mark of a good team - you're backups are now good enough to have a chance to play as deemed by your elite coaching staff.
Of course there's the possibility for failure. However, it's just as foolish to assume that these guys are a step below as it is to assume that they're all future All-Pros. We really don't have that many first year players who are going to be counted on to carry significant roles. Wilkerson and Kerley, obviously, and to a lesser extent Ellis and Bellore. That's it. We may not have seen much of the 2nd and 3rd year players, but that doesn't mean the coaching staff hasn't. They've competed on the practice field, which absolutely means they've gone up against top tier NFL talent. Obviously a game situation is incredibly different, but I have a tough time assuming the worst about the decision making of our CS and FO when it comes to the roster. The preseason and early season may show that mistakes were made. Until then, it seems more prudent to me to assume that they know what they're doing. McKnight was asked to learn a number of positions last year. His learning curve was steeper than your average NFL running back. We saw against Buffalo what he can do with the ball in his hands. With another offseason to learn the variety of roles he's being asked to undertake, that talent can be coupled with an improved knowledge of and comfort in the offense. I've heard his role is much more defined this season, whereas last year it was incredibly nebulous. Agreed, Westerman's a big question mark. Two things to remember, however: 1) We've gotten reports that Pace is fully healthy, which wasn't the case ever last season. He won't be treated as gingerly, and his health alone improves our pass rush. 2) Taylor really didn't have a great campaign. He certainly didn't meet expectations. With Pace healthy, it's somewhat safe to assume that Westerman isn't going to have to fill quite the same hole that Taylor did last season. I'd love it if he exceeded Taylor's output, but I don't know how realistic that is. With an improved secondary, the potential for coverage sacks will most certainly still be there. I think using him full time at OLB will help as well. He bounced between the outside and inside early in his career. Again, I'd be more concerned if those 3 had better 2010 seasons. Pitoitua was supposed to contribute well in 2010 before his injury. Had he not been injured, Pryce likely never would have joined the team. Consider it a question mark, but I'm not going to assume it's a downgrade. That reeks of SOJF. You really should have stuck with ILB as the position of concern as far as depth goes. Of course, since our primary backup inside was on the roster solely for his ST ability, it's tough to step back there. Well, Woody WAS a better RT to start the season, and continuity is incredibly important at the position. However, watching Hunter come in and acquit himself well clearly had an effect on the CS. They certainly made it a priority to retain him this season. There's certainly room for concern with regards to the WRs, although I notice you were careful to mention "touches" rather than receptions. Brad Smith's rushing creates 300 of those yards. With Sanchez taking a step forward, the Wildcat should diminish further in importance. Relying on Burress/Mason/Kerley to replace and improve upon 1400 yards combined and 9 TDs receiving doesn't seem outlandish to me.
haaaahahahahaha and what's equally scary is that Iggy and I said basically the same thing in each response.
I've seen this repeated over and over on the board. It's almost like it's assumed by a lot of posters. I'm really hoping he does, but I don't think it's a given. I've seen a lot of stats attempting to discredit what he's done (mostly low completion percentage, but also the # of dropped int's last year). http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/26901/sheer-luck-buoyed-mark-sanchezs-stats But the fact of the matter is, he's gotten to 2 championship games. Other very good QB's playing now and those that have played in the past didn't have a chance to do that. I guess all I'm saying is that all the other "if's" and question marks won't matter if he takes a step back. If he does what we all think he can, the Jets make the playoffs, maybe even win the division. If he gets exposed as being a marginal QB (which I don't think he will), the other question marks will will be magnified and the Jets may be looking at 8-8. Does anyone have stats or examples on 3rd yr quarterbacks taking a big step fwd and those taking a step back? Is the 3rd yr generally the "big step" yr?
An important point to remember in this thread is that we are comparing the 2011 Jets to the 2010 Jets. So it's not relevant what you think Braylon Edwards or Shaun Ellis would have done for the team this year, all that matters is how much they helped the team last year. I understand why as an organization they would want to move on from players like Ellis, Edwards, and Taylor. The best teams (not just the Ravens and Steelers) have to say goodbye to their older players and replace them with younger/cheaper options. However, often times these younger/cheaper players represent downgrades, at least in the short term. Not enough people on this board are willing to accept that as a possibility. Just because Rex Ryan is your coach doesn't mean he is going to get all his players to reach their potential. Every coach in the league has had a player who didn't live up to his talent, the most recent example of this would be Gholston. There was absolutely nothing Ryan or the great positional coaches could do to turn him into a good football player. I'm not saying they're at fault, I'm just illustrating it's still perfectly reasonable to suggest all these unproven players won't be able to live up to the potential you all feel they have. It seems like the coaching staff wants to hand the ball off to Shonn Greene about 250 times this year, which is about 16 carries a game. That is a pretty big step up for a player who has been so inconsistent in his first two years in the league. He's also going to need to make big improvements in the passing game (both as a receiver and a blocker) if he is going to consistently be on the field on 1st and 2nd downs. I agree that the sack stat is overrated, you'll notice I didn't mention it in any of my posts. I'm talking about putting pressure on the QB, which is something this defense struggled with last year. Despite these struggles they still managed to have a very good defense, but it's not horrible logic to suggest if the pass rush gets even worst the overall defense will suffer. I'm not talking about them suddenly becoming the Houston Texans pass defense, but if this defense falls to middle of the pack or even slightly better, what does that do for this team's playoff chances? IMO, if this defense isn't dominant, the team isn't playing in January. If the Jets wanted to upgrade their front 7 they would have had to invest cap space into it. That, in turn, would have meant they couldn't have resigned all their big name players. Perhaps it's possible Tannenbaum agrees with me, but feels signing Cro/Holmes/Harris is more important than creating quality depth. It's not a strategy I agree with, but I certainly respect his decision-making abilities. Wayne Hunter playing well against a mediocre (at best) D line in the playoffs is commendable. Beating your competition when the stakes are the highest is what this game is all about, and that's what he (and the rest of the Jets) did last year. Kudos. However, it certainly does not constitute as proof that he is ready to be a 16 game starter. My point wasn't even that he'll be horrible. I'm assuming he will come in and be an average RT. However, in terms of run blocking, Woody was dominant. Going from dominant to average is going to have an effect over a 16 game season. It's like last year, going from Faneca to Slauson. Was Slauson a bad player? Certainly not, but he couldn't match the 09 contribution of Faneca, and the run blocking took a step back. It's not unreasonable to suggest it will take another step back this year. For a team that identifies itself as "ground and pound" I think this is troubling. Sanchez' numbers are not going to increase simply because he is in his third year. I do think he will be a better QB (no one knows how much better though) but if his receivers aren't as good and can't get open as often, it's gonna be tough for Sanchez to look better. I also don't think anyone on this board would have said Mason > Edwards before the lockout ended. Just because he is in a Jets uniform doesn't make it true. I put a lot more stock into the fact that McKnight couldn't sniff the field the first 15 games than one meaningless game where he had success against the worst run defense in football. OK, assuming both Pace and Thomas stay healthy, let's assume Westerman is only needed for about 40% of the snaps. I'm willing to admit he is capable to matching, and maybe even slightly improving on Jason Taylor's contributions last year. However, it's not a given, and is a position that should be considered a question mark, not worthy of confidence. I also think it's pretty reasonable to assume that if Pace or Thomas go down and he is forced to be an every down player, the team is in big big trouble. That's also true for Scott/Harris. I see no reason to discount the 300 yards of offense Brad Smith produced by running the ball. That is production that still needs to be replaced, and if it's done by Sanchez throwing the ball more, it should show up in the WR stats. 1700 yards and 10 TDs are what Kerley, Mason, and Burress need to replace, and that's just to maintain the status quo. I see that as unlikely, but I guess we'll have to wait for the season to start to find out.
Here's a fun little exercise that should lead to some good discussion. Let's go back to those eight player I listed earlier, and what their expected roles are. Pitouta - rotational lineman, plays approx 40% of the snaps K Ellis - same as Pitouta, maybe slightly fewer snaps Wilkerson - starting DE, plays approx 55% of the snaps Westerman - sub package linebacker, plays approx 45% of the snaps Wilson - nickel corner, plays approx 55% of the snaps Hunter - starting RT, plays 100% of the snaps Greene - starting RB, approx 250 touches McKnight - change of pace back, approx 120 touches These are the roles I'm assuming the team wants them to have, feel free to disagree with me and state your own opinions on what you feel their roles will be. But if you agree with me, than you'll note all of those guys will be playing significantly larger roles than they have in the past. What happens if three of those guys don't work out? Having five out of eight unproven players come in and be quality contributors is a pretty good hit rate, I don't think it would reflect poorly on the team or the organization if three couldn't meet expectations. So, pick whichever three you want, and then explain what you think the impact will be if they don't come through. Can the defense be dominant if the players up front don't come through? Can they still win with ground and pound if the RBs aren't very good? I'm curious to see your opinions.
What exactly is the point of this argument? Professor Frink is saying that this isn't about whether the FO has built the best team it could, but only whether we're "better" this year in the absolute; and the main argument is "we don't know". No shit? That weakness is a consequence of one of the team's main strengths. We have a lot of good players whom we've signed to lucrative, long-term contracts. Our team has more or less reached its plateau in terms of starpower: it was quite telling that the only star we went after in the offseason was going to be our 2d CB. Until the cap goes up substantially, we won't be able to have confirmed guys at all positions either. For the next two years at least, we will surround our core with draft picks, UDFAs, and senior citizen ex-stars who want to play for Rex/ get one last shot at a championship. There will be a revolving door as the old guys leave and the better UDFAs or draft picks find more remunerative employment elsewhere, and we will have absolutely no idea whether their replacements will be as good. 2011: Plax+Mason>Braylon+Cotch??? 2012: WR draft pick X +aged FA signing Y>Plax and Mason??? 2014: OMG! Joe McKnight has been signed by the Raiders for 10m per, and the Bills gave John Conner 5m! Will we suck now??? Whatever the year, the first week of training camp may be a little early to make definitive judgments either way. Sure, some of these off-season decisions may not pan out; that's what late training camp/mid-season signings and trades are for. But mainly we will get better or worse as our core players improve and decline. If Sanchez starts playing like an all-pro, we're good. Worry when D'Brick and Mangold start showing signs of slowing down. Also, our capacity to draft well from the bottom of each round is essential. And until we have reason to do otherwise, it's reasonable to trust our FO who hasn't done a terrible job.
Most of Sanchez's improvement last year came from fewer interceptions. Since it is one of the stats that varies a lot year to year because of small sample size there is reasonable question as to what is going to happen this year. The measure of dropped interceptions suggests there may be a regression in the cards. On the other hand being a second year QB is also a good reason to expect improvement. That improvement should continue this year. The development of Sanchez is going to be the tale of the Jets for the next several years.
Then who, rather, would you have than those who are not returning or stepping into their roles? In that case, scrap this entire debate. Because the only relevant alternative to those coming to new roles are those who previously held the position. If not, I'd like DeMarcus Ware to take over for Jamaal Westerman. That should solve everything. I'll agree with that, but they aren't certain downgrades or upgrades. "Represent" is a loaded term. When Jon Vilma took over and was a younger, cheaper player and was a welcomed upgrade to the LB corps? He represented an upgrade. We have no idea what the percentages are. We just know someone is unknown and most fear that. I'll give you one more - Kellen Clemens. But there's one thing that neither of them had - potential. Forget hindsight. Gholston's writing was splashed painted on the wall. Ask WW85. He knew on draft day is was a big mistake. Clemens has less pocket awareness than I do, and I don't play QB. Some players just can't play at the NFL level. But those 8 players listed have potential, because they all have tape that shows impact plays, or a player doing his job consistently in the short time he has to prove his worth. Or how he came all the way back from the dog house to having a role on this team and the legendary special teams coach giving you the assignment of teaching the ST coverage to the rookies and new players. That's reaching potential. I have faith in all 8 guys because they've shown potential and they've continued to make strides. Hunter reached his potential in the playoffs last season. Why else do you think the Jets kept him? That was a job interview. He got the job. I don't believe that all 8 are going to be upgrades or become pro bowlers. I see most of these players continuing the same level of talent as those they are replacing. But if any were glaring liabilities to where they are going to be "downgrades," I'd be all over it. He's inconsistent due to injury, but his fumbling issue has subsided. That's called reaching potential. In terms of blocking, I've seen him stand up Luis Castillo, in the playoffs, as a rookie RB, during a red zone play at the 3. Greene has shown the potential to block, and its expected that its gotten better in his 3rd year. He was not known for catching passes in college. He didn't do it in his rookie year, and had 16 last season. 30 catches is in his realm. He's a bruising back - he's not going to be known for catching passes. I feel as if I watch exponentially more film than you do. Seriously. How much film do you watch, because I can cite plays, especially in the playoffs, and you've only questioned potential and called them "short term downgrades?" They struggled on 3rd down last season in the first half of the schedule. Then it got better. The issue was the DL, which had zero depth. This year the Jets addressed the DL. We don't know if Wilkerson is going to be an upgrade or downgrade. Ellis won't see shit until late in the season. He's never seen a system like this, so its going to take him a while. Stop asking questions I've given the answers to. Rex has never had an even slightly mediocre defense. This reeks of SOJF. My patience is wearing thin. So you wanted Cullen Jenkins. Just say it. Its fine. He missed half the season. How do you know he would have come here and not been a downgrade? The depth was in the drafting on the DL, and those 3 are now the core of the team. Do you want stars or quality depth? Its rare you have both. The Packers last season were an anomaly. What mediocre DL? The Pittsburgh Steelers? The Pats DL is young, but he still has to deal with Warren and Vince Wilfork. Mike Wright is an up and comer (not a downgrade). The Pats defense wasn't ranked high in terms of numbers, but that defense doesn't suck. They certainly aren't going to suck this season. Hunter started in 6 games last season and showed he can play at this level. So why not 10 more? I do agree he is not as good as Woody in the run game right now, but as he gets more comfortable with his linemates, that can improve. His pass blocking is arguably better. Slauson not only matched Faneca, but got better. That's an easy consensus everywhere I've seen, heard, and talked football. Any coach, scout, or GM would say the same. Slauson was no different than Faneca early on and then he got better. He also played hurt all last season. If you don't think 3 veterans that are a dynamic home run hitter, a red zone threat, and a consistent near HOFer aren't going to help him, then this team might as well pack up and go home. 5-11 here we come. When the careers are over, Braylon will be forgotten. Derrick Mason will be someone young WRs will always be compared to. I see past green. I'm well versed with teams and players around the league. Derrick Mason has been incredible for almost 2 decades.
I put more stock into the fact that he went from being in the dog house for 15 games to being trusted with teaching the ST newbies the scheme. That's a long way he's come in 12 months. Tip your cap to him. I trust Westhoff and the CS over my own opinions. He's going to contribute. LB depth is an issue. That's something we can all agree on. I was worried when Taylor had to play 75% of the snaps, because Pace at this point in his career is better than an ancient Jason Taylor. Not every position has someone waiting in the wings. I will say that Mauga is making strides. He can hit. He's someone I'll be watching come Monday night. That's not that difficult to reach in today's NFL. Sanchez should hit 3700 yards and 24TDs. So for a third of it to be on the new guys, that's not an extreme. That's the thing - there are no extremes with these questions. If there were any extreme changes, then they'd be issues. And then I'd be up in arms about it. In 2007, I went apeshit about the lack of OL quality. And look what happened. But this is an exercise in nitpicking what all 32 teams go through. Its a nice discussion, but its not that serious.
On July 21, 2011, it was announced that Moore would take a job with the New York Jets as an offensive consultant, working from home. Basically he is retiring because the new collective bargaining agreement allowed teams to opt out of the pension system. sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4147407 You are attributing a lot to a guy who isn't going to be around that much.
WW85 knew that Gholston was gonna be a bust on draft day? Why didn't he tell Mike Tannenbaum that? Because obviously he thought Gholston had tons and tons of potential. By the way, Gholston did/does have a ton of potential, he is just incapable of meeting it. You said it yourself, some players just can't play in the NFL. At this point, there is no guarantee that those eight guys aren't in that class. Rex Ryan might think otherwise, but he, along with 31 other head coaches, is wrong sometimes. There is nothing wrong with having faith in the coaching staff, but you have to be willing to accept the possibility that they are human and will make mistakes. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you I've seen more Jets games than you, but I have watched my fair share, believe me. I have definitely seen Shonn Greene get blown up by a LB enough times to know he is a liability in the passing game. I will continue to believe that until he proves otherwise. This is my whole point. They struggled on defense last year because they had no depth on the DL. So how is losing the biggest contributor going to help that? It's not, it's going to make the situation worst. The 2007 Ravens gave up 24 points per game, which ranked them 22nd in the league. I think that qualifies under the "slightly mediocre" category. You'll never guess who their defensive coordinator was. The Packers, Steelers, and Patriots put a lot more emphasis on building quality depth throughout the roster than the Jets. If Tannenbaum feels signing big name stars is the way to go then fine. We'll just see how it plays out and see how many Super Bowls he wins. You don't have to convince me that they aren't gonna suck this year :up: However, going into that playoff game last year the Patriots' D line situation was not good. It was a pretty thin line to start the year, but injuries to Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and Ron Brace took a bad situation and made it worst. Some of the guys Hunter was facing off against were rookies like Kyle Love, Brandon Deadrick, and Jermaine Cunningham, or they were veterans like Eric Moore and Rob Ninkovich. Not exactly a murderer's row. According to NFL.com, Wayne Hunter has started 5 games in his seven year career. It's not all that far-fetched to think he might not have what it takes to be a 16 game starter. I hope you are comparing Slauson to the 2010 version of Alan Faneca. Because there is no way in hell any respected football scout would tell you Slauson matched Faneca's 2009 contributions. Not even close. If you disagree there is no point in arguing, we will not see eye to eye. I wonder how much a rookie, a guy who hasn't played in over two years, and a 37 year old can help Mark Sanchez without passing camps, mini camps, or OTAs. I just have a hard time seeing that trio matching the production of Edwards/Cotchery/Smith. I like Derek Mason's game a lot, and I think he can help this offense. Still though, I see him as a replacement for Cotchery as the #3, not Edwards as the #2. While it's definitely a good thing for McKnight that he found a way to help the team on special teams, it certainly doesn't preclude that he has what it takes to be a quality NFL RB. I'm not ready to take those numbers to the bank. I think losing the player that played the most snaps along the defensive line constitutes a pretty large change. I also think the pass rush specialist is a pretty important role in today's NFL, and bringing in an almost entirely new WR core seems like a major thing too.
Mangini is gone, he may well have picked Gholston to keep him away from BB? HC and GM are tied at the hip. Tannenbaum made a bad move and corrected by getting rid of Mangini and Gholston. No question it's a crap shoot but teams that hang onto players to long rather then develop young talent often fail worse then teams that draft well and plug them in. Obviously Shonn Greene hasn't been who we thought he would be yet. That's why we drafted a backup and we also have depth with Tomlinson and McKnight. We didn't exactly struggle on D last year we had a top D last year. Revis came in late, our starting safety went down along with our best Dlineman. We have more continuity and more secondary depth going into the season. We have added two young, athletic bodies to the DL and we have our entire LB corp. back healthy. The Packers, Steelers and Pats have the luxury of having top 4 NFL QB's. The Pats haven't won a playoff game in 2 years. Green Bay has built their team through the draft much like the Jets. The Jets have a younger QB who is a middle of the pack QB we need more talent around him and since our QB is cheaper right now we can afford to go that way. He might now which is why we drafted OL in the second round last year to develop a player who can play both guard and tackle. Yet he did play well as a rookie and is likely to be better this year and dumping Faneca didn't really hurt the team at all. Very comparable to dumping Ellis this year except we drafted 2 players at his position on day 1 of the draft. Speaking of Fanecca didn't the Steelers dump him off their line and win the SB the next year? Smith and Cotchery weren't productive last year. Between them they had 45 receptions for 485 yards. Yet he has been as productive as Edwards over the last several years and doesn't bring the potential of game suspensions to the table. A player who was mediocre on a mediocre unit last year.
