Perhaps I didn't make myself clear. If the Jets had resigned and kept all their receivers from last year, including Holmes, and the Dolphins acquired Kerley, Mason, and Burress to complement Marshall. Both teams would have a dominant #1, and then the comparison comes down to Kerley, Mason, and Burress vs Cotchery, Edwards, and Smith. If the latter 3 were still on the Jets and the former on the Dolphins, no effing way does anyone on this board think the Dolphins were in better shape. But since they signed with the good guys, and Smith, Edwards, and Cotchery will be playing somewhere else, obviously it's an upgrade
If Buress performs on the field like he has in the past which is the question, he is simply better then Edwards. He runs better routes, has better hands and cathces the ball more consistently in his hands. Mason has been more productive then Cotch the last few years and Cotch is coming off back surgery and 2 at best pedestrian years in the NFL, something no one wants to acknowledge. The reality is if you told anyone this offseason that we would lock up Harris and sign Cro and our best WR Holmes to a long term deal I suspect most on this board would be pretty happy. If you take into account what appears to be a very good draft, another year under the belt for 2 of our OL men and our young QB, I suspect this team is more talented and we have locked up a very solid core of very high talented players. The nice thing about the NFL is you don't have to tie up cap in head casses like Edwards because invariably there are going to be opportunities to rent high talented head casses every year in the NFL. That's exactly what we did when we got both Edwards and Holmes and after auditioning both it was clear Holmes was the guy to tie up.
This is solid reasoning. I don't expect Burress to be resigned next season unless he out performs Holmes, because we'll just go looking for another dynamic tall wideout until we can score one in the draft.
I agree as far as this goes, but that was, as we have seen, only part of what was going to be the roster issues this abbreviated trading and signing season. What it left out is that the pass rush has not been improved and Ellis is going to the Pats. At least in the short run I don't see how losing the most solid starter on the DL from last year is not going to be a step back.
In NFL history, how many guys have their been who spend two years away from the game and return to make a big impact their first year back? Has this ever happened? Are you really comfortable banking on Burress making an unprecedented comeback? I'm also curious why this "appears to be a very good draft." What is that based on? A handful of practices? You don't even want to wait until the 1st preseason game to declare how good all these players are? The reality is that no one (not even the coaching staffs) know how good any of these rookies are yet. Yet for some reason, everyone on this board is totally sure Wilkerson and Ellis can be solid NFL players from day 1. Is no one concerned about how rare it is for rookie D lineman to be instant contributors? Does know one care that if they don't work out, the Jets still don't have anyone with any experience to take their snaps? Pitoitua and Dixon? What have these guys ever done to deserve your confidence? Ropati Pitoitua Kendrick Ellis Mo Wilkerson Jamaal Westerman Kyle Wilson Shonn Greene Joe McKinght Wayne Hunter That is eight unproven guys that they are counting on to be contributors. If these guys aren't up to the task than this team is royally f.cked.
I'll give you the rookies. I don't expect Ellis to do anything until later in the season, and that's if he gets it quickly. The rest of them, there is film on. And that film has supported the opinion that most of these guys will step up and continue dominance. Did anyone know that a 3rd round NT that was on a religious mission before he returned to football was going to turn into one of the most underappreciated NTs in all of football 4 years later? We didn't, but the CS knew. I think we can trust whos running this team, as well as what some of us have seen on tape. If no one, and I do mean no one, is saying that Wilkerson is having "growing pains" or is struggling a little, then he's doing well in camp and justifying the immediate starting DE spot. But we will see him rotated with the other DL. And 5 players on your list are backups. So they don't need to be stars. They need to not be total liabilities. The good news is that the last total liability left and got picked up by Chicago, and even he did a unnoticeable but decent job at 34 DE.
We are very likely to be able to pick up veteran rotational lineman before the season starts. Last year Ellis was a rotational Defensive lineman and not that good with the exception of the Pats game. We also lost our single best interior lineman last year and were very able to plug and play. Pace was also out and hurt much of last season. I'm confident because last year with pedestrian defensive rotational guys our D was outstanding. As far as Buress he is an exceptional talent and he is replacing a guy who is likely going to miss games this year in Edwards who may well be suspended before the season starts. Additionally, Holmes who is also a top NFL WR is going to go into the season with reps and continuity as the clear No. 1. Last year our O was disrupted by Holmes coming in after the 4th game to some extent. Mason has clearly been a productive vet who can start from day 1 at the 2 spot. Mason and Holmes on day 1 is still better than Braylon and Cotch day 1 last year and if Plax can contribute the upside is enormous. As far as running back we have lost nothing from last year and gained experience and a back that can fill in for Greene as well as push him. McKnight is clearly going to get some reps this year as well. Can't see how this isn't a better RB situation than last year. The OL is also likely to be better with another year under the belt as is the secondary which will not have a holdout or a new No. 2 CB starting. There is every reason to believe this team is younger, faster, better and more experienced than last year’s team opening the season.
The problem is you have an extremely small amount of film. How much film do you have an Pitoitua? He's played in 8 games, and I'm willing to bet he didn't play a ton of snaps in any of them. What about Westerman? How much film is there that shows him playing defense (not STs) against NFL talent? McKnight and Wilson barely played as rookies so there isn't much tape on them. The only guys on that list that you have a reasonable amount of tape on is Shonn Greene and Wayne Hunter, but you're still relying on them to do something they have never done before. It's often a necessity in today's NFL, but it's still tricky business. I also don't think it's a smart idea to get hung up on "backups" and "starters." The reality is that in today's NFL you need more than 22 guys to help you win games. I understand you don't need Westerman to be Clay Mathews, but you don't realize it's not even a given he can be as good as Jason Taylor last year. Here is how it shakes out to me 2010 front 7 > 2011 front 7 2010 O line > 2011 O line 2010 WRs > 2011 WRs RBs and DBs are both areas I could see there being legit improvement, and QB is pretty much a guarantee to be improved (the question is how much?) Even still, it will be hard for Sanchez to actually look better if the team around him is worst.
2011 QB >>> 2010 QB 2011 DBs >>> 2010 DBs (Another year in the system, Revis healthy, Cro playing angry, and Wilson proving himself. WR is a unknown as to which is better. Holmes will be here a full 16 games and has that much more chemistry. Mason is without a doubt a Cotch upgrade and if Plax can be Plax that too is a upgrade over Braylon. Rex is the key on defense, never forget that.
I would think with the shortened off season, teams that kept their core together and didn't turn over coaching staff are going to have an advantage.
It's true, their defense was very good last year even though the D line was mediocre. Well, now it's (most likely) gotten even worst. Remember all those times last year when they struggled to put pressure on the QB? Well, that's probably going to continue this year, perhaps even more often. In running situation, teams are going to focus on Pouha. He's going to get the kind of treatment players like Wilfork and Ngata typically receive, let's see how that makes him look. Teams are going to demand the more pedestrian (your word) players beat them. It'll be the same thing in passing situations, every team is going to make sure Calvin Pace doesn't make a play. Who else do you have confidence in to consistently win the one on one matchups?
Haha, that was pretty bad. It made me think, what the hell ever happened to Justin McCareins? He fell off the face of the earth after leaving the Jets. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_McCareins "McCareins is now reportedly not playing in the NFL, but living in Broward County, Florida, and pursuing a career in law enforcement." Justin "Mall Cop" McCareins. Awesome.
I happen to be a big Burress fan. Man that game against GB in the playoffs his last year with the midgets, it's been some time since I saw a receiver totally dominate another team's D like that. But... two years of not playing will take some time to come back from, and we really don't know if he will come all the way back.
And the coaches have that same amount of tape to go on. But they have one more advantage - seeing them in practice everyday. We don't have that luxury. They also know football better than we do and they've been right so far. They've also been knowledgeable enough to get this team to consecutive championship games. The argument works both ways - the small film isn't a substantial support for their body of work, but at the same time the promise they've shown in that small sample is what coaches and fans bank on. Its called "potential." Its what got Mark Sanchez drafted 5th overall. Hunter I have my reservations about, but its not crazy to think he's going to do an admirable job. I think he's good at best, and above average right now. Greene is going to be in a 3 RB rotation. He's not going to Curtis Martin the load out there. I'm not worried about the running game because its a committee in todays NFL and LT is playing 3rd down anyway. McKnight has rededicated himself to being professional. He'll do fine. Since only 11 guys can be on the field at one time, I'm going to designate backups and starters. Role players are important, but unless Pace goes down again I'm not going to rely on Westerman to make a big impact. Taylor did a fine job, but he showed his age. I don't think Westerman is going to get a clutch safety in an important game, but to think he can't outplay Taylor from last season isn't that far fetched. Interesting, the front 7 loses two people who are at the end of their careers and it suddenly goes down. Ellis could very well be finished and perhaps lost a step. We don't know. Taylor is 35. What else can he possibly do? This team is at the point where they can get rid of a player a year earlier rather than later because they draft well. Its what the Steelers and Ravens do. Once Moore is back from hip surgery the OL is essentially equal, because Hunter played the last quarter of the season. No one noticed that he was out there during the Pats game in January. Turner will fill in fine for Moore, because he fills in for Mangold and no one notices any drop off. That is fact. There is game film to prove it. The WRs have one question mark - Plaxico. Derrick Mason one of the most consistent WRs in the history the game. Its already been reported that he and Mark have found an immediate chemistry. I'm not saying that the 2011 WRs are going to be better, but considering Cotchery had an anomaly of a season last year as the #3, I can't see them being any worse. To say this team has lost a step because its gotten rid of old players who are on their last legs isn't exactly concrete proof. I also don't think Braylon is going to be as big of a loss as people think.
The problem is that often times in the NFL, potential goes unfulfilled. Is that what's going to happen here? I have no clue, that's an answer not even Rex Ryan or the rest of the coaching staff has. But you do need to open yourself up to the possibility that not all these unproven players are going to work out. How much do you want to rely on guys like LT and McKnight? LT's numbers significantly dropped after week 5 last year, and he is another year older. McKnight hasn't even proven he's an NFL caliber player yet. I understand your optimism, but your confidence is misplaced. Westerman might not be a starter, but when the Jets are playing in sub-packages against pass-heavy his role is going to be very important. Starts tell you who is on the field for the first snap of the game, I think a more telling stat is percentage of snaps played. That's a much better indicator of how important that player is. Last year Jason Taylor played around 55% of the snaps, that's a pretty big role to hand over to an unproven player. I would think it would be a successful year for Westerman if he can play as well as Taylor did last year. But again, that's no guarantee, and the question then becomes, how much worst can this pass rush get before the Jets aren't a dominant defense? I downgraded the front 7 because they are going from Ellis, Taylor, and Pryce to Pitoutia, Wilkerson, and Westerman. I'm not saying the former 3 were great players last year, but they were solid veteran players who played important roles in the defense (Pryce not so much as the other two.) When you replace them with completely untested and unproven players, I see that as a downgrade until proven otherwise. Last year the coaching staff thought Woody was a better RT than Hunter. That means unless Hunter suddenly improves, he's going to be a downgrade from last year. I think this is going to be especially relevant when it comes to run blocking. Woody was one of the best in the league at that, and running behind him and Moore was a big part of the Jets' ground and pound approach. If that suffers this year, will they continue to be able to sustain the dominant running game? Last year the trio of Edwards/Smith/Cotchery combined for 143 touches, and generated 1681 yards and 10 TDs on offense. I just think it's unrealistic to expect that kind of production from Burress/Mason/Kerley. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong (it certainly wouldn't be the first time) but at this point in time I think my position is more reasonable. The final question I have is, how many question marks can a team have before they shouldn't be considered a Super Bowl contender? For me, the Jets have passed that threshold.
3300 yards, 17 TDs, in 15 games. Why is 4,000 yards out of the question? He'll even have Holmes for the first 4 games. 25 TDs is unrealistic? He did have 8 TDs to start last year W/O Holmes in 4 games. I'd not be surprised if he threw for 25+ TDs this year. His accuracy might not reach 60%, but I think he can be very close to it. You are looking at the TC and thinking, "oh god, Sanchez is going 3/9 with a pick and a td in every session", but remember, offense is rusty. D can be rusty and it can still perform cuz it has to react, while the offense doesn't reacts. It acts.
