I mentioned this is another thread already, but Kerley could find success early because he won't be lining up against top level corners. He'll always be matched up against nickel and dime corners, which could mean immediate results early in his career.
Yeah, that's the biggest reason why rookies are able to have success in the slot: mismatches. Nobody's expecting him to be in the top 3 in receptions on the team, even if he ends up earning the 3 spot at some point. As a rookie slot receiver, he's essentially hoping to be the 4th or 5th option.
I went through the last 3 years (2008-2010 draft classes) to see who the most effective rookie WR drafted after the 4th round were (or undrafted). Out of the more than 100 players here were the best. Josh Morgan 20 catches 319 yards. Davone Bess 54 catches 554 yards Johnny Knox 45 catches 527 yards Brandon Gibson 34 catches 348 yards Julian Edelman 37 catches 359 yards Sammie Stroughter 31 catches 334 yards Danario Alexander 20 catches 306 yards Notes: only Bess and Edelman played on winning teams. Edelman played QB in college Alexander was a projected 3rd or 4th until he had to have knee surgery during senior bowl week. edit: my point being.... While Kerley may turn into a steal down the road, he is unlikely to be much of a contributor this year.
Santonio Holmes is the NY Jets best slot receiver. Krispy Kream will have to bump a Super Bowl MVP to make the team, or REALLY impress Westy with his Special Teams, something Clowny could never figure out how to do.
That's about what I would have expected when I said there a few late round guys who produce as rookies. Maybe 2 a year. The upper end numbers aren't happening for Kerley this year but if we can get 20 to 30 catches and 300-400 yards out of him in the slot that basically replaces Cotch's production from last year. Nobody should be exacting anymore than 30 catches from him, but 20-30 catches is all he would need to do to fill that role in the Jets offense.
LOL @ him not making the team because Santonio Holmes is on the roster. This team is so thin at receiver that Kerley is guaranteed a roster spot. There's very little depth at the position.
I kind of put him in the 30 catch range. The player who will benefit most from Cotchery's departure will be Dustin Keller. And hearing that Keller is learning a lot from Moore is extremely promising.
+1. I remember the hype about Clowney, etc... All these guys always have a good week or two in camp and than dont do jack shit. It's easy to look good when you are going up against back-up's, and or starters that dont give a shit since it is August. Wake me up when he does something in September.
The problem is that those are the best of the last few years, and almost all of them played on bad teams because someone got hurt. Even the two on good teams only played because of injuries (welker for NE, Camarillo for MIA). It makes me think we need another WR, because any injury to Burres or Holmes (pretty good bet) and we have a grand total of 5 NFL catches to the names of all our other WRs.
There will almost certainly be someone else brought in by the end of camp. That doesn't mean that Kerley won't have a role in the offense out of the slot. None of the guys remaining in free agency are typical slot guys and Holmes is so dynamic that he won't only be put on the inside on 3 wide sets.
Jeri-Kerl is a great nickname. I just rewatched his highlights and regardless of wether he can step in and be our slot receiver this year or not, he looks like he could be solid in the return game. I know highlights are highlights for a reason, but still...
My only problem is that I hesitate to use the draft status as a major knock against him. I listed successful rookie slot receivers from the past two years, ignoring Percy Harvin as a first rounder, but there were about 10 decent contributors from the 3rd round on. I'll try to find it, but there was a study done that showed that there's little difference in rounds 3 - 6 as far as productivity, and in fact Round 4 has traditionally had the best success of the group. It's more important to look at the conditions, which you did with the losing squads mention. I can't think of a better situation for Kerley to come into: an offense that looks to get both wideouts, the TE, AND the backs regularly involved, with a gaping hole in the slot at the moment. I definitely agree that we need a veteran, but more for the sake of insurance in case of injury. I don't think Kerley's going to see many balls either way, but he could get valuable development actually playing in the slot this season if we don't have a vet to man the position.
Keller looked like moore's pet project on Tuesday. At one point Keller was working alone during positional drills with Moore and another coach I couldn't identify looking on. He is definitely teaching Keller a few tricks.
Hopefully Sanchez gets in on some of those workouts because it will be vital that Sanchez gets the ball to Keller on time and accurately with some of the routes that Keller will be asked to run.
