JetsBlog article on Nick Folk's 2010 season.

NDmick · Jul 15, 2011

BGA Weekly: That’s All, Folk?

By Bent on Jul 13, 2011, 4:48 pm

During the offseason, I’ll be looking back at certain aspects of the Jets’ season by analyzing data compiled from all nineteen games, rather than watching film. I will be tackling as many diverse topics as possible, but welcome your suggestions or requests in the comments.

This week’s BGA focuses on Nick Folk. Many Jets fans have expressed a desire for the team to upgrade at the placekicker position. I’m going to look at how his numbers stack up against those of his peers and whether bringing in a replacement is likely to make much difference.

I’ll also consider how they might have fared if they had decided to retain Jay Feely instead, all else being equal.

Once again, this article has used data exclusively provided to us from the guys at PFF. Our thanks, as ever, go out to them.

Introduction

After Nick Folk opened up his career with the Dallas Cowboys by making 26 of 31 field goals, including 24 of 26 from inside 50 yards, he was voted to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He followed that up by hitting on 20 of 22 field goals the following season and was widely considered the best young kicker in the NFL. Who can forget his 106-yard game winning field goal on Monday Night Football?

In 2009, he had made 14 of 17 field goals by the mid-way point of the season. Unfortunately, he then fell apart, missing in six straight games and losing his job. He made just four of 11 field goals in that six game slump.

When the Jets signed Folk to a one-year deal in February 2010, many felt it was just as a fail-save in the event that they were unable to bring back free agent Jay Feely. However, Folk was claiming his 2009 collapse was attributable to a flaw in his technique after he came back from hip surgery and that, assuming this problem could be fixed, he could return to his Pro Bowl form.

Ultimately, Feely signed with Arizona and Folk won the job, ahead of Clint Stitser, who ended up in Cincinnati with the Bengals. Feely’s exit enabled the Jets to sign Jason Taylor, which would not otherwise have been possible under the restrictions of the Final Eight Plan. Folk’s 2010 season had its ups and downs (as we will investigate) and he is now a free agent again. The Jets also have “former UFL standout” Nick Novak under contract or could yet pursue a veteran.

Breaking Down the Numbers

In 2010, Folk connected on 30 of 39 field goals, good for 76.9%. Only four kickers had a worse percentage, although another two were tied with him. He was tied for fourth in the league in made field goals, though. In the postseason, he made two out of three.

This low percentage was largely influenced by another mid-season slump. Entering Week 10, he had connected on 16 of 19, but then he missed kicks in four straight games, going seven for 13 over that span. Over the remainder of the season, including the postseason, he made nine of 10, once again appearing to have fixed any mechanical flaws that may have been responsible.

Despite this, on the basis of the final statistics, Folk did very poorly as a field goal kicker. On the other hand, looking at his output on a game-by-game basis, it seems that his misses didn’t generally cost the Jets and he did have some big games or clutch kicks that enabled them to win some games they might otherwise have lost.

Game-by-Game

Pre-Bye Week

Week 1 – Made all three field goals, but the Jets lost 10-9.
Week 2 – Made both of his field goals and the Jets won 28-14.
Week 3 – Did miss one field goal, but it was a blocked 61 yarder, just before half time, so did not really affect the result. He made his other kick in a 31-23 win.
Week 4 – His first bad miss of the year, from 30 yards after a Bills turnover, could have put the Jets up 10-0. He soon redeemed himself though and the Jets went on to win easily, 38-14.
Week 5 – Made all five of his field goals, including one from beyond 50 yards and at least one through driving rain. Had he missed one, the result could have been very different, as the Jets led by just 22-20 late in the game. They won 29-20.
Week 6 – Folk’s only attempt was a 56-yarder, which he made (a team record, albeit at altitude). Had he not made that kick, the Jets would have been in even more trouble at the end of the game. Down 20-17, they converted a fourth down on a pass interference penalty and managed to score a late touchdown to win 24-20.

Over these first six games, Folk was indisputably excellent. One of his misses was a shot-to-nothing anyway and his other one did not prove costly. The one loss they had could not be attributed to him and at least one and possibly as many as three of their wins could have been losses if he missed another kick.

Middle of the Season

Week 8 – After the bye week, in a game where everything seemed to go wrong for the Jets, Folk’s missed 37-yard field goal would have tied the game late in the third. However, the Packers still won the fourth quarter, so I don’t know if you can pin the loss on Folk.
Week 9 – Folk rebounded against the Lions with a three for three performance. This included a clutch game-tying field goal and the game-winning kick in overtime. Needless to say, they were crucial kicks.
Week 10 – Against the Browns, Folk missed three times. Only one was a chip shot but you can certainly say his team bailed him out in this one. Had they not gone to overtime, perhaps Jerricho Cotchery doesn’t get injured and maybe they are slightly less banged up at the end of the year as a team. Having said that, the way they won the game may have helped to accelerate Mark Sanchez’ development – not that this should count in Folk’s favor.
Week 11 – Folk made three of four against Houston and the one miss he had was from beyond 50 yards. However, had he made that one, then – all else being equal – the Jets would have trailed by only one at the end of the game and not needed Santonio Holmes’ TD. Would Holmes’ stock be anywhere near as high if the Jets had won these two games without needing him to score the game winner?
Week 12 – Folk missed one of two again, missing a 44 yarder as time expired in the first half with the Jets losing 7-3. Again, this could potentially have been costly, but wasn’t because they recaptured the lead on the second play of the third quarter and never looked back, winning easily 26-10.
Week 13 – Folk was again one of two as the Jets were blown out in New England. His one miss was excusable because it came from beyond 50 yards after the Jets’ opening drive, but it left a bad taste in the mouth after he embarrassingly missed by a mile. It’s difficult to pin a 42-point loss on one missed kick, though.

In this middle part of the season, Folk clearly struggled. Although there was one game where his clutch kicking helped them win, there were several misses. His team definitely had to bail him out against the Browns and his misses against the Packers and Patriots – while they didn’t directly cost the Jets the game – came at particularly demoralizing times.

The Last Seven Games, Including Playoffs

Week 14 – Folk made his only two kicks, but the Jets lost 10-6.
Week 15 – Folk again made two of two, as this time the Jets won by five.
Week 16 – Folk made two for two for the third straight game, but the defense cost the Jets this one, 38-34.
Week 17 – Made his only kick in a 38-7 blowout.
Wildcard – His only kick came as time expired and was a crucial game winning kick, albeit only a 32 yarder. Had he missed that, the Jets lose and the talk this offseason would be “They would have got blown out by the Patriots again, anyway” instead of the prevailing optimism after they came close to making the Superbowl once again.
Divisional Playoff – Folk’s only kick was missed, which can once again be filed under “potentially costly”. His missed 30-yarder in the first quarter came with the game still scoreless. The Jets took control in the second quarter and hung on until the end for a 28-21 win.
AFC Title Game – The Jets lost 24-19, but Folk made his only field goal attempt

In this part of the season, there was one huge clutch kick and his only miss did not cost the Jets a win. The win in Pittsburgh is another example of a game where one more miss could have turned that one into a loss.

I should also mention that he was perfect on extra points (and remains 168 for 168 for his career). For a team that had a one point win and two overtime wins, the importance of that cannot be overlooked.
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http://www.thejetsblog.com/2011/07/13/bga-weekly-thats-all-folk/

NDmick · Jul 15, 2011

Kickoffs

Kickoffs are another well-documented area of weakness for Folk. He only had four career touchbacks entering the 2010 season and was actually removed from kickoff duties for the 2009 season. I was asked about this with one week to go in the regular season:

PFF does track kickoff statistics and they tell us this about Folk’s kickoffs:

Average distance – 62.8 yards (33rd out of 41 kickers with 10 or more kicks)
Maximum hangtime – 4.5 seconds (tied for 7th in the league)
Average start – 27.8 yard line (17th in the league)
Touchbacks – Seven (20th in the league)
Percentage returned – 89.2% (17th in the league)

On the basis of these numbers, Folk seemingly isn’t doing that bad. However, kickoff stats are notoriously misleading. If a player deliberately does a squib kick just before half time or at the end of the game, this will skew the figures. Onside kicks will also have a dramatic effect (although I understand these are excluded from their numbers), as will kicking short on purpose to avoid a dangerous return man (which Folk was doing on Sunday.)

If we delve deeper, five of Folk’s seven touchbacks came in the Denver game and none at home. Clearly some kickers will benefit from the conditions more than Folk will kicking in the Big Slinky. To get a better assessment of how his kickoffs have been, it is better to break it down like this:

- Average distance: More than 70 twice, 65-70 yards three times, 60-65 yards six times, less than 60 yards four times
- Average start: Past the 35 yard line once, 30-35 yard line three times, 25-30 seven times, inside the 25 four times

Again, this is pretty inconsistent. However, Folk entered the season with a reputation as being very poor at kickoffs, so he has probably exceeded my expectations for him. He had only four career touchbacks and the last time he kicked off (2008) he had none and his average distance (62.6), average start (31 yard line), maximum hang time (4.3) and percentage of returns (97.3%) were all worse than this year. Admittedly, he hasn’t improved much and Dallas replaced him with a kickoff specialist the following season.

You may recall that the Jets brought in Clint Stitser in the offseason, a guy whose scouting report talked in glowing terms about his booming kickoffs with five second hangtime. Clearly he failed his audition to be either the kicker or the kickoff specialist this summer, but he has landed himself a job in Cincinnati. Ironically, his kickoffs have been statistically worse than Folk’s and he has made seven for seven in field goal attempts.

For me, the key stat is the average start for the opposition. Folk is ahead of Stitser, Mike Nugent and Jay Feely in said category, so things may not be any worse than they have been in recent years. As I said, though, these stats can be misleading. They depend heavily on the efficacy of your coverage units.

Just to update some of those numbers to the final figures:

- Average Distance dropped slightly to 62.6, but he actually rose to 27th. Average numbers probably fall across the board at that time of year, but Folk had the benefit of a game kicking indoors, at Indianapolis to slow his descent. He was almost 10 yards worse than the league leader, Billy Cundiff.
- Maximum hangtime did not change, dropping him to 13th.
- Average start increased to 28.0 yards, dropping him to 32nd. I can confirm that the 17th placed ranking previously quoted was inaccurate, as I discovered a glitch in the kickoff database at that time (onside kicks were being included in the average start data), therefore, in reality, he was actually much lower than that. In fact, although the original data had him ahead of Nugent, Stitser and Feely, only Stitser ended up behind him in this category. Feely ended up in the top ten, so he was definitely affected by the glitch. (He had a memorable blooper where he practically missed the ball on an onside kick attempt).
- He didn’t add any more touchbacks, but only dropped one place to 21st.
- The percentage of kicks returned ended up at 91.4% which dropped him to 32nd. Again, I assume the previous 17th-placed ranking was affected by the afore-mentioned glitch.

Whatever way you slice it, Folk is not a good kickoff guy, but then again, moving the tee forward five yards will be a much bigger benefit to him than to someone like Cundiff who puts half his kicks in the endzone anyway.

Feely Hypothetical

When Jay Feely hit on 15 of his first 16 field goals over the first 13 weeks, this only added to the criticism that the Jets had made a big mistake. He missed his second one the following week…but also kicked five and scored a touchdown! Feely ended up with 23 makes and three misses for an overall percentage of 88.5%.

While this is much better than Folk’s percentage, would it have made any difference if the Jets had kept Feely instead of signing Folk?

There are several factors that would have made a difference to Feely’s output. For example, he’d have kicked 50% more often, which on one hand might have made it easier for him to get into a rhythm, but also might have made it more likely for mistakes to creep in over the course of a season. Another factor is the weather. While Folk was kicking in cold weather, Feely was situated in the desert in a stadium with a retractable roof. Having said that, Folk’s biggest clutch kicks of the year came inside domes (Detroit and Indianapolis) and his longest kick came at altitude. One more factor is that Feely didn’t get many pressure kicks in Arizona, whereas Folk was involved in a lot of close games. The Cards were never really a postseason contender and seven of their games were decided by a margin of more than 17 points. Finally, there were financial implications. Although there was no salary cap, the Jets – like most teams – reportedly had a self-imposed spending limit, so letting Feely leave on a two-year, $3.5m deal saved them over a million dollars in 2010.

Let’s ignore all these factors, though, and just assume Feely would have had a similar season if he stayed with the Jets and that all else is equal. 23 of 26 field goals translates to 37 out of 42 (which equals Folk’s number of attempts including the postseason). Already that’s five more field goals than Folk actually made. Even so, would this have made any difference to the Jets’ record?

Actually, only two of Folk’s misses came in games they lost. Even if we assume these were two of the extra kicks Feely would have made, all that would have meant was that they tied the Packers late in the third quarter and that they would have cut New England’s lead to 7-3 early in the first quarter. There’s no guarantee they would have won either game, particularly considering how the games ended. You could say he would have made the Browns win and maybe one or two others a lot less stressful, but – since we’re working on a concept of “all else being equal” – it’s difficult to say having Feely would have improved the Jets’ record at all.

In fact, there’s a flipside. Would Feely have won all the games Folk did? Would he have made the game winner in Indianapolis and the two kicks to tie and then win the game against Detroit? Would he have been five for five against Minnesota? (Four for five probably wouldn’t have been enough.) Similarly, one more miss against Pittsburgh, Miami or Denver (the 56 yarder) could have cost them those games too.

You can also factor in the fact that they couldn’t have signed Jason Taylor without Feely leaving too. Many Jets fans believe they would never have won that Steelers game without his safety. He also had a big strip sack to ice the win over the Pats too. Overall, I’d say – all else being equal – that if Feely had played instead, even if he did end up with much better stats, the Jets could easily have ended up with a worse win/loss record and maybe even missed the playoffs.

Conclusions

The previous section may lead you to believe that I’m trying to justify the move to go with Feely rather than Folk. Not necessarily. It was definitely a gamble and Feely definitely out-kicked him in 2010. Yes, I reached the conclusion that even if Feely had posted the same numbers he did for Arizona (which is not a given), the Jets would have been more likely to have a worse record than a better one. However, that’s because Folk made the ones that count, which to me doesn’t say that the gamble paid off. More accurately, it says they just about got away with it and were merely fortunate none of his misses proved costly.

I can totally see the wisdom in the move once you consider the financial aspects and the Jason Taylor factor. The potential upside in having Folk return to his form a couple of years ago also shouldn’t be overlooked. He was better than Feely has ever been over the first two years of his career and there did seem to be medical reasons behind the downturn.

The unfortunate thing is that you can’t overlook the mid-season slump. Folk didn’t kick well enough to put to rest any doubts that he is back to his best. However, you can’t ignore the way he began and finished the year either, which ultimately means he wasn’t bad enough that we can rule out him returning to permanent form, either. That gives the Jets a huge dilemma in terms of weighing up whether to bring him back in 2011.

Ultimately, Folk has not inspired a lot of faith in the Jets fanbase, which may factor into the Jets’ thinking. Although, on a personal note, I can’t help but think that it seems every huge field goal in Jets history was made by a guy I’d lost all faith in (Folk, Feely, Hall, Allegre) and all the high profile misses were by guys I’d grown to trust (Brien, Blanchard, Leahy).

This is one of those decisions I’m glad isn’t up to me.
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http://www.thejetsblog.com/2011/07/13/bga-weekly-thats-all-folk/

That's why I really never distrusted Folk the way some people do.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

That about hits it, he was up and down and had a good season overall. We didn't really lose any games b/c of him though we could have so the switch from feely didn't hurt us in 2010. Feely is still much better but luckily for us the pressure kicks he had to make were chip shots.

NickD · Jul 15, 2011

Unless we can sign a ProBowler with experience kicking in wind and cold, we should resign Folk and do it soon. If the Jets show confidence in him, then he'll have confidence in himself leaving less room for mechanical issues to resurface.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

NickD said: ↑

Unless we can sign a ProBowler with experience kicking in wind and cold, we should resign Folk and do it soon. If the Jets show confidence in him, then he'll have confidence in himself leaving less room for mechanical issues to resurface.
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I'm getting the feeling we will be hoing w/ Nick Novak as a similar experiment to the Folk one last year.

APK 8 · Jul 15, 2011

nyjunc said: ↑

Feely is still much better but luckily for us the pressure kicks he had to make were chip shots.
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Why has everyone forgotten the two missed kicks by Feeley against the Colts in the playoffs? Those were pressure misses as any in the playoffs have to be. I'm no fan of Folk, but I think we over rate how good Feely was.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

APK 8 said: ↑

Why has everyone forgotten the two missed kicks by Feeley against the Colts in the playoffs? Those were pressure misses as any in the playoffs have to be. I'm no fan of Folk, but I think we over rate how good Feely was.
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One was a 50+ yd FG, the first one was a bad miss but not nearly as bad as Folk's miss at NE in the playoffs.

MBGreen · Jul 15, 2011

nyjunc said: ↑

One was a 50+ yd FG, the first one was a bad miss but not nearly as bad as Folk's miss at NE in the playoffs.
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Feely is garbage. The Jets FO knows it, and the rest of us with a clue know it as well.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

MBGreen said: ↑

Feely is garbage. The Jets FO knows it, and the rest of us with a clue know it as well.
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If you know it I feel even worse that we let him go b/c that means it was a big mistake.

MBGreen · Jul 15, 2011

nyjunc said: ↑

If you know it I feel even worse that we let him go b/c that means it was a big mistake.
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How can you call yourself my biggest fan with statements like that junc?

NickD · Jul 15, 2011

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/novaknic01.htm

Nick Novak's Career
FGA FGM FG% XPA XPM XP%
30 19 63.3% 32 32 100.0%

He spent his first year with two teams. He was unemployed in 2007. If he is the only kicker on the roster Week 1, then we will be screwed in close games.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

MBGreen said: ↑

How can you call yourself my biggest fan with statements like that junc?
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I'm sorry, this lockout has me confused:up:

NickD said: ↑

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/novaknic01.htm

Nick Novak's Career
FGA FGM FG% XPA XPM XP%
30 19 63.3% 32 32 100.0%

He spent his first year with two teams. He was unemployed in 2007. If he is the only kicker on the roster Week 1, then we will be screwed in close games.
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I'm not saying I am in favor of Novak but it sounds like they will take the same approach w/ him that they took w/ Folk. It's clear they were not thrilled w/ Folk's performance last year. If they could get feely back they'd do it in a heartbeat.

MBGreen · Jul 15, 2011

nyjunc said: ↑

I'm sorry, this lockout has me confused:up:

I'm not saying I am in favor of Novak but it sounds like they will take the same approach w/ him that they took w/ Folk. It's clear they were not thrilled w/ Folk's performance last year. If they could get feely back they'd do it in a heartbeat.
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Isn't Akers a UFA?

I'd rather take a run at him than rely on Nick Novak.

nyjunc · Jul 15, 2011

MBGreen said: ↑

Isn't Akers a UFA?

I'd rather take a run at him than rely on Nick Novak.
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We are going to have to spend in other places, my guess is they go cheap again at K.

MBGreen · Jul 15, 2011

nyjunc said: ↑

We are going to have to spend in other places, my guess is they go cheap again at K.
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I wouldn't expect Akers to garner a huge contract. He's not exactly Vinatieri, albeit, he is reliable and can kick outdoors efficiently.

101GangGreen101 · Jul 15, 2011

Folk made the ones that mattered in the end, Jets did have to bail him out on several occasions. Obviously we'll bring in competition for him and see if he's actually improved amidst the lockout, the guy is only 26 years of age so he still has room to improve

BrowningNagle · Jul 15, 2011

Can't trust Folk at all we need a new kicker if possible. Its an in-depth look, but just because his misses didn't COST us games doesn't mean they could have. He's lucky the Jets were a good enough team to bail him out in Cleveland, Cincinnati, New England (playoffs) and vs. Houston. Lose one of those games and that would have meant an early end to our season.

What you get from reading the article is basically the only important kicks Folk made were in very kicker-friendly environments. Domes: DET, IND (which was super easy anyway) and thin air DEN. Not to mention his pro-bowl year was in domed DAL. The article should have discussed more his struggles in weather: which is something you CANT have in NY.

also the article neglected to mention the many times Ryan and Schotty decided they couldn't trust him and punted or went for it in sometimes difficult yet reasonable range. Whereby Weatherford did very well pinning back (excluding playoffs): A closer look at those situations may be more revealing and if we could have trusted our kicker maybe some of those close games down the stretch may not have been so. It just Seemed like that happened alot towards the end of the year and that the CS knows they need a new kicker.

I did like the quote about in the history of the NYJ, the biggest kicks were made by guys we lost faith in and the biggest misses were by trustworthy kickers. That figures.

24McNeil · Jul 15, 2011

i wouldn't mind giving david ackers a look.

MBGreen · Jul 15, 2011

24McNeil said: ↑

i wouldn't mind giving david ackers a look.
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who the fuck is David Ackers?

Hemi · Jul 15, 2011

Did I misread something there? What was that about a 106 yard FG on Monday Night Football, a joke?

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