As a lot of you know, Rick Gosselin has one of the best mock draft records out there. Here's his final mock. By RICK GOSSELIN Staff Writer rgosselin@dallasnews.com Published 28 April 2011 12:32 AM 1st pick: Carolina Panthers Cam Newton -- QB, Auburn The Panthers had the worst quarterbacking in the NFL last season with only nine TD passes in 16 games. Newton gives the Panthers a chance, although his legs are likely to carry him through his rookie season. (Team needs: QB, WR, CB, DL) 2nd pick: Denver Broncos Von Miller -- OLB, Texas A&M New coach John Fox is switching to a 4-3 defense and needs tackles and linebackers. He can get competitive tackles into the third round. But there’s only one impact linebacker in this draft. Miller is the value here. (Team needs: DL, OT, TE, LB) 3rd pick: Buffalo Bills Marcell Dareus -- DT, Alabama The Bills finished last in the NFL in run defense in 2010. They need some bigger, nastier players to line up against the Jets and Pats. In Dareus, they land the best run defender in this draft. He also brings an attitude. (Team needs: QB, DL, OT, LB) 4th pick: Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green -- WR, Georgia This is the only shot the Bengals have of luring Carson Palmer out of retirement. Draft the best receiver in college football, release Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, and give Palmer a clean canvas to resume his career. (Team needs: QB, WR, CB, pass rusher) 5th pick: Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson -- CB, LSU When you finish 31st in offense and 29th in defense like the Cardinals of 2010, anyone you draft is going to be an upgrade. Peterson is a huge upgrade for the secondary. Arizona is surprised to see him still on the board at 5. (Team needs: QB, LB, pass rusher, OT) 6th pick: Cleveland Browns Julio Jones -- WR, Alabama The Browns need a lead receiver to accelerate the development of QB Colt McCoy. Voila — Jones was a walk-in starter at Alabama, and he’ll be a walk-in starter at Cleveland. He averaged almost 15 yards per career catch. (Team needs: WR, CB, OT, DE) 7th pick: San Francisco 49ers Blaine Gabbert -- QB, Missouri Jim Harbaugh is a quarterback maker — first Josh Johnson at the University of San Diego and then Andrew Luck at Stanford. In his first year as head coach of the 49ers, Harbaugh wants a quarterback he can build a team around. (Team needs: QB, G, def. playmakers) 8th pick: Tennessee Titans Jake Locker -- QB, Washington The Titans want to put the Vince Young era behind them. Locker provides Tennessee a key element Young lacked — leadership. Locker was a two-year captain at Washington and a very charismatic player. (Team needs: QB, DL, LB, S) 9th pick: Dallas Cowboys Tyron Smith -- OT, Southern Cal The Cowboys have four starters on the offensive line who turn 32 this season. This group needs to get younger — and what better way than to select the youngest player in this draft? Smith turns 21 in December. (Team needs: OT, G, DE, CB) 10th pick: Washington Redskins Christian Ponder -- QB, Florida State Mike Shanahan is not going to enter a second season with Donovan McNabb, so the Redskins spent all day Wednesday trying to move up. Gabbert was the target. Failing there, they take the next best QB on the board. (Team needs: QB, WR, CB, youth) 11th pick: Houston Texans Aldon Smith -- DE, Missouri The Texans are switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme, and Smith can play anywhere in it. He has the frame to bulk up to play end or the speed and athleticism to play linebacker. The NFL’s 30th-ranked defense needs help. (Team needs: DL, LB, DB, WR) 12th pick: Minnesota Vikings Andy Dalton -- QB, TCU Like the Titans, the Vikings need to draft a rookie quarterback and play him immediately. Dalton brings a wealth of experience — four years as a starter, 42 career victories and more than 1,300 career passes. (Team needs: QB, DL, OT, CB) 13th pick: Detroit Lions Nick Fairley -- DT, Auburn Ndamukong Suh was perhaps the best defensive tackle in the NFL as a rookie in 2011. Adding Fairley makes Suh even better. Fairley is the best inside pass rusher in this draft. The Lions are building a formidable front. (Team needs: LB, CB, OT, WR) 14th pick: St. Louis Rams Mark Ingram -- HB, Alabama The Rams would love to draft a wide receiver for Sam Bradford, but there are none worthy of this selection. St. Louis will continue to give Bradford weapons, though — the best running back in this draft. (Team needs: Pass rusher, CB, WR, S) 15th pick: Miami Dolphins Mike Pouncey -- C, Florida The only need the Dolphins can still address here is the offensive line, and Pouncey gives them two-position versatility. Like his brother Maurkice, a first-round pick of the Steelers in 2010, Mike can play guard or center. (Team needs: OL, OLB, CB, QB) 16th pick: Jacksonville Jaguars Ryan Kerrigan -- DE, Purdue You can’t expect to survive with a paltry pass rush in a division with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub. The Jaguars managed only 26 sacks last season. Kerrigan had almost half that (121/2) last fall at Purdue. (Team needs: DE, S, LB, QB) 17th pick: New England Patriots Cameron Jordan -- DE, California The Patriots are likely to trade out of this spot. But Jordan here could be an inducement to stay put. He’s a 3-4 end who fits the size prototype (6-4, 287) Bill Belichick covets. Bigger is always better in New England. (Team needs: OL, DE, OLB, HB) 18th pick: San Diego Chargers Corey Liuget -- DT, Illinois Liuget was a dominant inside player in a 4-3 scheme in the Big Ten. The Chargers envision him playing the edge in their 3-4 scheme. He has excellent hands, a necessity for head-up combat with offensive tackles. (Team needs: OT, ILB, WR, pass rusher) 19th pick: New York Giants Nate Solder -- OT, Colorado Like the Cowboys, the Giants need to get younger on the offensive line. Solder is the best blind-side protector in this draft, and he’s going to get better. He’s only played the position for three years. (Team needs: OT, G, LB, KR) 20th pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Robert Quinn -- DE, North Carolina The Bucs have the worst pass rush in the NFC — just 26 sacks in 521 pass attempts. Quinn is the best edge pass rusher on the board. But his stock slid this draft season because of a bout with cancer in high school. (Team needs: G, pass rusher, CB, OT) 21st pick: Kansas City Chiefs Gabe Carimi -- OT, Wisconsin The Chiefs want to get bigger, tougher and younger up front. KC has one of the NFL’s best runners in Jamaal Charles — and Carimi has spent a career blocking in one of the best run-oriented offenses in college football. (Team needs: DT, C, WR, QB) 22nd pick: Indianapolis Colts Anthony Castonzo -- OT, Boston College Because of the run of quarterbacks at the top, a lot of quality players slid, including Castonzo, CB Prince Amukamara and DE J.J. Watt. As long as Peyton Manning is in Indy, the priority will be protecting him. (Team needs: KR, def. size, QB, LB, OL) 23rd pick: Philadelphia Eagles Jimmy Smith -- CB, Colorado If the Eagles are to continue their dominance in the NFC East, they must find someone who can cover Dez Byrant. Mission accomplished. Smith is the biggest and perhaps most talented cover corner in this draft. (Team needs: DL, OL, CB, LB) 24th pick: New Orleans Saints Adrian Clayborn -- DE, Iowa You have to stop the run to survive in a division with DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and LaGarrette Blount. So the Saints need some big bodies up front to bolster the NFL’s 16th-ranked run defense. (Team needs: DE, DT, LB, S) 25th pick: Seattle Seahawks Prince Amukamara -- CB, Nebraska The Seahawks need help for the NFL’s 27th-ranked pass defense, and Amukamara represents sliding value. He has the size (6-0, 206) to line up against physical wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree in the NFC West. (Team needs: OT, G, C, QB) 26th pick: Baltimore Ravens J.J. Watt -- DE, Wisconsin Another sliding value. Watt headed into the process touted as the best end for a 3-4 scheme — and he falls into the lap of a top-10 defense. Good players tend to find the Ravens wherever they are on the draft board. (Team needs: CB, WR, pass rusher, OT) 27th pick: Atlanta Falcons Phil Taylor -- DT, Baylor Same synopsis as New Orleans above. You need bulk up front to compete in a division that wants to run the football — and Taylor is one of the bulkiest players in this draft at 334 pounds. (Team needs: OL, NT, WR, LB)
28th pick: New England Patriots Danny Watkins -- G, Baylor Watkins is the safest pick in the entire draft — the one player you can confidently say will be in the Pro Bowl in 2012. He’s the best guard on the board, and some NFL teams were looking at him as both a center and tackle. (Team needs: OL, DE, OLB, HB) 29th pick: Chicago Bears Marvin Austin -- DT, North Carolina The Bears need an elite tackle to replace departed Pro Bowler Tommie Harris . Austin missed the 2010 season because of an NCAA suspension but plays with great power and a great motor. A top-10 defense just got better. (Team needs: LB, DT, RB, QB) 30th pick: New York Jets Derek Sherrod -- OT, Mississippi State There are only five offensive tackles in this draft who can walk in as starters and Sherrod is the last one. He started three years at left tackle at Mississippi State but projects as a right tackle in the NFL. (Team needs: CB, OL, WR) 31st pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Cameron Heyward -- DE, Ohio State The Steelers need to get younger at end in their 3-4 scheme, and Heyward provides them that opportunity. He’s a high achiever — a four-year starter, team captain and MVP of a Big Ten championship team. (Team needs: 2 CB, DE, OT) 32nd pick: Green Bay Packers Aaron Williams -- CB, Texas The Super Bowl champions have one of the youngest teams in the NFL and few needs. They are in a position to draft the best player on their board. That’s Williams, who can play either cornerback or safety. (Team needs: DL, OL, pass rusher, CB)
This can't be right... Team Needs: CB, OL, WR? That is our teams needs? For real? This is the first mock I've seen us take an OL. I'm not completely opposed to it, but I'm baffled by this mock. It's a twist. That's for sure.
This mock is pretty wild. Maybe that's why his is more accurate on average. He takes the consensus draft stock and completely disregards it.. which is how the draft works sometimes. Erm... I don't know either. Did he accidentally list the team's STRENGTHS?
I thought it was a reach when I had Ponder going to the Jaguars at 16. How the hell could he go in the top 10?!
No shit. I was expecting to be enlightened. I feel dumber instead. If Watt slides to 25, I'm trading up if I'm Tanny.
I think he's assuming we'll lose either Edwards or Holmes and Cromartie in FA. Also, we don't really have a RT, which is why he listed it as a need. But if he has us taking a RT in the draft, is he unaware of Ducasse, or does he have no faith in him?
Obviously, he's basing the Jets' needs on FA with Holmes, Edwards, B. Smith and Cromartie all being FAs. He is disregarding/discounting Kyle Wilson at CB and Ducasse at RT, as well as the needs at S and the pass rush, but maybe he thinks with the whole CBA mess, teams won't count on FAs as much. He's usually pretty darned accurate, but who knows...maybe he's developed a drinking problem. LOL
Screw that former Tarheel, it would cost too much, and besides, I'm with IJR. If Watt is there, I'm trading up to get him.
If Quinn starts sliding to around 16, Tanny is going to start getting the shakes and won't be able to contain himself from trying to move up. Not having a 2nd rounder this year hurts a lot though.. we'd have to trade next year's 1st.
I wouldn't be opposed to Quinn, and we could probably swing a trade up to 20 with next year's 2nd rounder...provided the Bucs are interested in picks from next year.
Quinn at 20 is better value than Watt at 26. (Both are ridiculous imo) Is the cost of moving up to around 20 that much more than moving up to 26 considering the impact of Quinn vs Watt?
No, it's really not, and it would be a great move. It's more about viability. Without a 2nd rounder, we'd have to sell them on next year's #2. We could move up to 26 for Watt for the cost of our 4th or even 5th. If they'd take next year's 2, it would be worth it for Quinn. Of course, neither of these situations is going to happen LOL
Gosselin doesn't purport to know anything about the draft,in fact he claims he's not a personnel guy. Most people in front of computers that fancy themselves personnel guys aren't either. Anyway, his draft is based, for the most part, on conversations with front offices. Last year, judging by Polian's comments, he wasn't far off with Saffold to the Colts, and I think the Broncos really liked Rolando McClain if I recall. He's generally regarded as one of the best in the business. It's not out of the question to see the Jets take an offensive lineman. I wouldn't be happy, but it's not out of the question. Also, the Jets are looking to trade out, so it's entirely possible that Sherrod goes at their spot to someone else. -X-
