Cameron Heyward at #30

WW85,

First, I'd be very surprised if Heyward drops to #30, but that's beside the point.

I have a few questions. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but more am looking for more information and looking to be convinced. One, you said that Wilkerson is a more "violent, physical player." I don't want to twist your meaning or put words in your mouth, but it sounds as if you're saying that Wilkerson may have a higher ceiling. Is that fair/accurate? If not, sorry, but what exactly are you saying? Also, if so, wouldn't it be a bit of a mistake to take a player who while more NFL ready now, may never be as good a player as Wilkerson?

I think that Mr. E has a valid point that Jets fans want a player who unlike last year, can contribute immediately, but I believe that most would prefer a player who can make a real impact over an extended period of time, not just get on the field quicker, but make less of an impact overall. At least that's how I and some of my Jets friends think.

Since it's the pass rush that needs the most help, I think most people prefer a player who can make an immediate impact as a pass rusher, and I'm not sure that's Heyward or any DE prospect. While better DL play will undoubtedly help the pass rush, can it help it more than an OLB with speed and skill? IMO, that's doubtful. I would be happy with an OLB who only initially plays on passing downs, yet makes his presence felt with pressures and a sack or two, but over the course of the season gets on the field more and more, and perhaps by the end of the season is the starter. I'd much prefer that over a DE who may see a lot of playing time initially, maybe even start, but make less of an impact in the pass rush.

I'm also not sure how much of an impact Heyward could make vs the run since the Jets' D is already pretty darned good vs the run. Do you see him as that much better a player than Devito, since that is presumably the player he would be replacing? I fully expect the Jets to re-sign Shaun Ellis. He can still play, and I believe that both the team and he wants him to retire as a Jet in a year or two, but not now.

I'm not saying that I don't like Heyward or don't think he'll be a solid DE, but I'm not convinced he would be the best pick, especially considering that the Jets have a number of other young DE prospects that they're high on who haven't gotten a shot yet, and have less than desirable play at OLB, and little or no depth to speak of.

In addition, I've seen Heyward play several times, but did not see the Sugar Bowl. He is very impressive in that video and I like the fact that his best games were against the best competition (if nothing else, that destroys any possible correlation between Heyward and Gholston), but in the games I saw he made some plays, but never really stood out.

Finally, CBS Sports has this to say in negatives about Heyward:

What is your reaction to that? Thanks in advance for your response.

 

Excellent point, Magilla. We all know that sooner rather than later, both Thomas and Pace need to be replaced. Ideally and maybe imperatively, the Jets need to find one of those OLB replacements this year in the draft. We all know how many years the Jets have been looking for that real pass-rushing OLB, and how hard it has been to find even one, much less two. Having to find two in one draft next year would be impossible. I truly think they must get a great OLB prospect this year and another next year if they have any hope of being able to replace both Thomas and Pace within the next 3 years.

 

I would be very happy to get Heyward though I have heard it said a few times that he isn't getting past the Ravens if he is there when they pick at #26.

At the moment the most likely options for us seem to be Akeem Ayers or Muhammad Wilkerson. I think with the foot thing the spectre of Phil Taylor is no longer hovering.

I am really hoping for a big run on second string QBs in the later stages of the 1st round so more good players get pushed down to us, or we trade down into the 2nd round.

 

I agree. I think Heyward will be taken at least four slots before us.

It would be interesting to know what is the most leftfield BPA that Rex would take. Have we missed anyone that could be a fit if they were still on the board?

 

My personal opinion is that good teams generally do not have impact rookies. That's probably due to the fact that A) the team is already good and selecting BPA, and B) they draft players later in rounds.

 

I've been reading very logical compelling arguements for the Jets to select a DE with their first pick. The problem with their logic (as I see it) is that Ryan doesn't value the DE position as much as they do. RR is content with solid unspectacular guys who are solid at the point of attack and if they do manage a few sacks, they're usually considered coverage sacks. I just don't see Wilkerson, Cameron, Watt or any other DE usually associated with the first round in most mocks being the Jets pick.

 

War & Peace (for Mr E ;-)

WW85,

Thanks for your comments.

We don't disagree about the DE spot. I think Devito could be upgraded and needs to be, sooner rather than later. Normally, I'd say it isn't the top priority but with Ellis a FA and not guaranteed to come back, Ropati Pitoitua coming off an Achilles tear and possibly not having the same ability as before, and Jarron Gilbert and Marcus Dixon basic unknowns, I think the Jets do need to add a DE in this year's draft and it becomes more of a priority than it normally would be. The problem is that NT is an even higher priority. Pouha has been absolutely stellar against the run, better than I ever dreamed he'd be, but he doesn't get much push vs the pocket vs the pass, and Tevaseau is a complete unknown. One thing is for certain, they need to address the NT spot in as significant a fashion as possible. Otherwise, if Pouha goes down with an injury the season is in real jeopardy.

Even though BAP is almost always the smartest, best way to go and Heyward could be the BAP available at #30, I think the Jets could be forced to abandon that approach this year, trade down obtaining an additional pick or picks so they can address more question marks by taking Kenric Ellis in the 2nd and then either trading up for Jarvis Jenkins in the 3rd, or taking Cedric Thornton or Pernell McPhee in the 4th or 5th round and hope whichever one they take will develop quickly. Even though Heyward will undoubtedly be a better pro than Thornton or McPhee, the combination of Ellis and Thornton or McPhee could be much better for the Jets and solve multiple question marks. By the same token, the Jets could trade down, take an OLB in the 2nd then take one of the DEs mentioned above, and it could have a better impact on the team both next season and long term.

With regard to Wilkerson, thanks for clarifying. Again, I agree, higher ceilings aren't always achieved and sometimes (often times?) those floors are achieved instead. Regardless, I think the same thing applies if Wilkerson is there at #30 and is the BAP (Heyward has already been taken)...the Jets may need to forego taking the BAP and instead address multiple positions.

I agree that Reid and Sheard won't be the BAP available at #30, and I'm not sold on Houston, either, but it may be the Jets only chance to get one of the better OLB prospects. As you said with regard to the 4th round OLB prospects, the OLB prospects get less desirable and more iffy. So from that perspective, I think that if they plan on getting an OLB who can have any impact this year, then they either have to take one at #30 or trade down into the 2nd round and take the best of whoever is still there.

I understand where you're coming from with regard to BAP, the OLB position and the #30 pick. BAP is almost always the way to go. As a rule, I hate reaching for positions of need. I do think there are times, however, when other conditions/needs can outweigh that. I think this could be one of those years. The one thing more than anything else that could push the Jets over the top, get them into the SB and help them win the Lombardi Trophy, is getting that edge rushing OLB. If Houston or Reed could accomplish that, even if they never become better players at their position than Heyward or Wilkerson or Carimi, I could live with that. As you know, the ultimate goal is winning the Lombardi Trophy. Generally, one gets there by having the best possible players at each position. Even if the Jets reached for a Reed or a Houston over Heyward, that could still happen, however, as Reed or Houston could and probably would be better rushers than either Pace or Thomas, so would be the best possible player at the OLB position on the Jets and could have a greater impact upon the play of the Jets' D than Heyward or Wilkerson.

19 times out of 20 I'd go with the BAP, unless I had two players rated very closely. Then, imo, the position of need trumps BAP. In this situation, neither Reed nor Houston may be rated closely to Heyward or Wilkerson, but could still be what the Jets need to win it all. I'm not saying they would be, just could be.

This draft is deeper in DE prospects than it is OLB prospects. I think that also has to be taken into consideration.

Even if Reed and/or Houston is/are there at #30, the Jets may still need to trade down to garner additional picks, although I think I'd be more inclined to stay put and take Houston than Reed. I don't think Houston gets past Atlanta, however.

One thing is for certain, the draft is gonna be interesting, and things appear as if they are going to remain "iffy" for a while regarding the CBA and the roster. I'll be glad when they resolve this and those questions can be answered.

 

That is often true, but not always. Would you say the Pats are a bad team? They certainly had rookies make an impact last season. How about the Packers? They had rookies making impacts, too. The Steelers have had rookies making an impact for them as well. If the Jets wind up getting Wilkerson or Heyward I would think that either would beat out Devito and at least have the potential of having a bigger impact than Devito on the team's play. I think that impact would greatly increase at OLB if the Jets get Houston, Reed or Acho. Even if their impact was only as a situational pass rusher initially, I think each would make more of an impact in the pass rush than Bryan Thomas.

 

With regard to what Rex values and what he doesn't, that may or may not be true. I think fans have at least partly ascribed that philosophy to Rex because the Jets haven't taken a DL high in the draft.

Rex is pretty smart and had Ngata in Baltimore. He saw firsthand what a topflight player on the DL did for the D. He may have even had a hand in Ngata being selected. I'd have a hard time believing that Rex truly has that philosophy completely. He'd have to be pretty stupid imo to truly believe that 100%. Rex knows that better DL play will open things up more for the OLBs and blitzers, and I'm not sure that either Pouha or Devito routinely commands a double team. With Ellis and Pryce being FAs, Pitoitua coming off an achilles tear and Jarron Gilbert and Marcus Dixon being complete unknowns, the need is definitely there...maybe not to take one at #30, but I believe the Jets will try their best to take a DE prospect, just as they will an OLB and WR and probably an OL.

I think he may have had to adopt that philosophy temporarily to some extent because of all the other needs the Jets have had and he values playmakers more than DL. That doesn't mean that he doesn't value DL. I think Rex has been pretty realistic, however, and the Jets have had a number of needs. They had to get a QB and a RB. They needed CBs to get past Indy and Pittsburgh. I think as some stability is achieved and the roster solidified, we will see the Jets taking DL higher in successive drafts.

 

Can a mod title this post War and Peace?

 

I agree with this. I believe Rex does too. Drafting a 1st round DE in a 3-4 defense seems like a waste to me. If a pass rusher or safety isn't sitting there high on our draft board at #30, we need to trade down.

 

How is it a waste? Mike DeVito is an over-achiever and Shaun Ellis has close-to-nothing left in the tank.

3-4 DE is a huge need. If you can grab a hard-working, consistent talent like Heyward, you do.

 

Not here to argue Mr. E, so settle down. I'm no draft guru, and have never proclaimed to be one. I don't watch college ball so I have no clue what will be there when we pick.

My point was that we have had one of the best run stuffing DL's in the league 2 years running, even without Jenkins. We achieved this with late round picks and undrafted guys, as well as an ancient Shaun Ellis.

Since you guys know infinitely more about the prospects coming out, is there not a DE you see being available in the 3rd? Is there not a upgrade to Poole or Thomas that could slip to us in the 1st?

If Heyward is the BPA at #30 I'll support the pick of course, because DL is a pressing need... I would just love to get more of an impact player there. I mean, nobody thought Wilson was going to drop to us last year right?

 

Settle down? I asked you a simple question. How is drafting a huge need a waste?

WW was much more harsh on you than I was.

There's a simple concept in football called depth.

Shaun Ellis was a first rounder. He may be near the end of the road, but his talent is far superior to the rest of those on our line.

There isn't a defensive end in the third round that's better than Cameron Heyward. JJ Watt and Cameron Jordan are the only 34 DEs that I'd take instead of Heyward.

Brodney Pool doesn't need to be replaced.

Cameron Heyward will be an impact player. If he's the type of player that I think he is, he'll make an impact on a defense for the next decade. Just because he's not getting sacks, doesn't mean he's not making impact plays.

 

Hah, sorry about that. I swear it showed 2 posts from you.

Assuming everyone comes back healthy, I would argue that we have more depth at DL than anywhere else. I am a huge fan of Shaun Ellis, but would any other team give us even a 5th rounder for ANY of our starters last year?

I understand there won't be a third rounder as good as Heyward. I'm saying that we don't really NEED a DE as good as Heyward.

Pool is nothing special and is always an injury risk. We don't have a true FS on our roster behind him. We need an Ed Reed type player back there. I'm not saying one is coming out of this draft, but Pool needs to be upgraded.

Devito made impact plays all season long, and he was an UDFA. The DL is literally the last place on the team where you spend your money when you are running a 3-4 defense, unless the next Jenkins comes along of course.

 

When Baltimore drafted Ngata he was listed as a NG. Balt didn't move him to DE until after Rex was gone. I believe Rex has a much higher priority on NGs then he does on DEs. I could be mistaken, but I think Rex even stated in interviews that he doesn't have as a high a value drafting DEs as he does other positions.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets took another CB at 30 either esp. if Cro is considered a RFA. Sign Cro to a 1 or 2 yr deal giving Wilson and this pick a chance to develop. I hope not, but can see it happening. Belichick is another that is constantly selecting DBs.

If Justin Houston is off the board I was in favor of taking Taylor or Paea. Now that I've read about Taylor's inoperable feet, I'll pass on him as damaged goods (DRob part 2?). Yet 30 seems a tad early for Paea, so I hope for a trade down into the first few picks of the second with Paea as the target. Even if no trade can be arranged I wouldn't be upset taking Paea at #30.

 

I strongly disagree.

Trevor Pryce, Jason Taylor, and Kris Jenkins are gone.

At the moment, Mike DeVito and Shaun Ellis don't have anyone to rotate with.

Now that Jenkins is gone, we also lack depth at nose tackle.

We've got some young guys that can hopefully step up:

Martin Tevaseu, Matt Kroul, and Carlton Powell at NT

Marcus Dixon, Jarron Gilbert, and Ropati Pitoitua at DE

The odds are against these guys though - all but probably two of these guys will get cut or end up back on the practice squad.

It's never a good thing to rely on practice squad players. This team needs to bring in some new blood on the line.

Jimmy Leonhard is the one coming off of the serious injury.

Pool's "concussion" problem turned out to be a misdiagnoses, so if he's an injury risk, then that means every player on our roster is.

 

That's not true.

Kelly Gregg's been Baltimore's primary nose tackle since 2002.

I know you're big on facts, so I'll be here to call you out when you make something up.

The report about Phil Taylor's feet is supposedly fabricated.

Stephen Paea was a top fifteen prospect before the Senior Bowl injury. If he's there at 30, it'll more than like be a steal.