I've herad Rex been asked numerous times...."How did the Ravens do so well drafting"? Rex's answer: "Easy, we took the BPA". I read an article on the Jet's homepage a few days ago that the Jets will probably have a 1st Rd grade on about 25 players, which makes sense. http://blog.newyorkjets.com/2011/04/08/while-pundits-think-d-trading-down-also-an-option/ For conversation, let's take my top 25 ranked players. If all 25 players are gone, the article states that the Jets could consider trading down into rd 2 for more picks. My list of the 25 BPA worth a Rd 1 grade: 1) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU 2) AJ Green, WR, Georgia 3) Marcell Dareus, DL, Bama 4) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn 5) Julio Jones, WR, Bama 6) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska 7) Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina 8) JJ Watt, DL, Wisconsin 9) Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M 10) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Mizzou 11) Daquan Bowers, DE, Clemson 12) Cameron Jordan, DL, California 13) Tyron Smith, OT, USC 14) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue 15) Aldon Smith,, DE, Mizzou 16) Cam Newton, QB, Auburn 17) Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida 18) Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College 19) Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin 20) Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon 21) Cam Heyward, DE, OSU 22) Corey Liuget, DL, Illinois 23) Justin Houston, DE, Georgia 24) Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB, UCLA 25) Muhammad Wilkerson, DL, Temple If one of these players falls to 30, it's a no brainer you draft them, except the QB position, which I don't expect either to last to 30. For a player to fall to 30, some teams will have to reach for another player. IMO, we need to hope for Newton & Gabbert to come off early, Top 5. This puts pressure on Teams like Miami or Minny to reach for Christain Ponder, Ryan Mallett..etc. Especially Miami, no Rd 2 pick. But the more likely scenario, it will force teams like San Fran, Tennessee, Jax, Minny and even 2 of the top 5 teams that didn't get a QB in Rd 1...like Cincy, Buffalo & Zona to trade up into the bottom of Rd 1 for their QB. This QB need situation could be very beneficial to the Jets and I hope Tanny realizes the possible opportunity. Trading ahead of the Jets in the 20's will push players into the Jet's lap at 30 or the Jets could trade out at 30. Don't you think Belichick is waiting for calls to get out of #28? he loves Rd 2 picks, good players with great value. IMO, the value of the players available in this draft from 30 to 45 is very close.
From all I have read I think Ponder and Locker could both go late in the first round which is good news for us. I would prefer to stay put in the first round and take the BPA provided he also fills a need (i.e. its not a QB or RB).
Not many teams, if any, in late Rd 1 need a QB, you have to have someone trading in for them. That was my point, Newton and Gabbert should and will be gone and no RB is in my top 25. I can't say I want to stay or trade out, I have to wait to see how the board falls on draft night. My whole point of this thread is to show our possible options, to say.." I would prefer to stay put in the first round and take the BPA provided it fills a need", is impossible to predict and that's why we need to keep an open mind.
Just to clarify, I wasnt saying you were saying you wanted to trade out of the first, just that I would prefer to stay there Newton and Gabbert are almost certain to go in the top 7 picks to teams picking there, the jags could well go for Ponder (either where they are or dropping down a few spots), vikings or seahawks could well go for locker, that still leaves Mallet and Andy Dalton and someone could go back into the first for either if they think he is their guy. I am really looking forward to this draft, as ever there are going to be a load of WTF moment - just a shame the jets wont be picking until around 4am local time for me (luckily its a public holiday the next day due to the royal wedding - God Bless 'Em)
I understood your point, you prefer to stay put at 30, which is fine. One of my points of this entire thread... it's clear that you have to wait and see how the board falls to make a commitment on staying or trading out. How can you want to stay at #30 if you don't know who is available in 2 1/2 weeks?? Something to think about!!
I hope we can trade out of the 1st, but not too far down in the second. If we could get two second round picks and still get a good OLB or DE, that would be awesome. We could really use a second round pick this year.
Unfortunately, we wouldn't get 2 second rd picks, there aren't many teams with 2 picks in Rd 2 , plus the value doesn't work. Only scenario to get 2 second round picks would be a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year. Depending who we trade with, it would be a 2nd Round & a later 3rd Round or a 2nd Round and an early 4th Round pick. Also, we should get another later Rd pick (maybe 6) to equal the value. It's all about leverage, is the team trading up really want the Jet's #30 spot
BPA is always the way to go,especially when you have the scouting/personnel department the Jets do. When the Jets have gone away from their scout's board, and been influenced by coaches or others, that's when they run into the problems(I.E Gholston). Additionally, when You're a team in the state the jets are wherein you don't have a ton of holes you either trade up for that final piece, or you sit back go BPA and build up your tea,'s depth chart. As the Jets don't have the ammo this year to move up, I believe BPA is the wise choice.
You're right, I'm not much of a draft guru. Although I think Denver has two 2nds, but I doubt they'd give them both up to move up. If we could somehow come out with three picks total in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we'd be better off. I think in the end we'll stay put and get the best player between D-lineman, OLB, and safety.
Its just based on the observation that second and third round players tend to disappoint a lot more frequently than 1st round players. I really need to find my copy of Phil Steeles football preview mag from last year as it had this great feature showing projected starters and how they were acquired and it was striking how few starters were drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds and how many more UDFAs were there were.
Only problem we have is that both NE and CHI could be much more willing than us to give away their draft pick...
Why is that a problem?? Let's think out of the box. IMO, it's a good thing, cause the team moving ahead of the Jets at 28 & 29 should be moving up for a QB and leave us more options at #30. People need to look at both scenarios. Trading down is only good if your player is off your board. I wouldn't have wanted to trade down last year with Wilson still available. Baltimore got too cute and traded out...they should have drafted Wilson or McCourty last year, value was there with a big need. They drafted a player, that has alcohol issues and hasn't seen a football field in 15 months cause he was drunk off his ass and fell down a flight of stairs.
Interesting to see that you didn't have Phil Taylor in your 25. Many mock drafts have us taking him but I'm not so sure. I'm definately going with the BPA.
Overrated!!! I don't like Taylor in Rd 1. If we trade into Rd 2, that's a different story. I know he has met with the Jet's and there is interest. No question, Taylor is a physical freak for his size. I 'm a little concerned about someone that the media has flown up the draftboards in such a short time. Taylor was considered a 3 rd round pick a few months ago.
I was of the same opinion and we can't afford another draft choice based on hype. Trouble is I cant see many team giving up much for our 1st round spot.
Depends how badly they want that second tier QB. Cause you know at the top of rd 2 (top 8 picks).....at least 2 to 3 QBs could be drafted. I'd take a 2 early/mid, 4 & 5/6 for our #1, as long as our Rd 1 dratboard has been exhausted. It's hard to judge value of the picks, even with the outdated chart and not knowing who we would be trading with at this time.
I know what you mean, its always hard to judge the value of picks and with all the things going on this year (free agency?) that just makes it so much harder, I can see us just sitting tight until around pick 25. By then we will know who is left on the board and if there is no-one of decent value to our team Tanny will probably try a trade, depending on who is left of any value to anyone.
It's looking more and more like teams will try to get back into the first for guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. I usually use the same insiders for draft rumors and they've been reporting that both of these QBs will go between 25-35. Hopefully some GM gets antsy and trades back in for one of them.
From your BFF: Quote: (Rotoworld) The National Football Post's Wes Bunting reports TCU QB Andy Dalton's draft stock is "heating up." Analysis: Bunting has spoken with a scout who has Dalton rated higher than Jake Locker, and believes he has a shot to go late on day one. This comes on the heels of an ESPN report where Adam Schefter predicted Dalton would likely be drafted somewhere between 25th and 35th. Dalton doesn't have a ton of upside, but is about as "NFL ready" as any quarterback in the draft.
THIS IS FROM PETER KING The Patriots should come out of the draft with an extra 2012 first-round pick, unless I'm getting lied to a lot. Last year, I thought the 33rd overall pick would generate heavy action in trade (as did the Rams, who held the first pick in the second round). The theory was that because the NFL took a 20-hour break after round one, teams would have all day Friday before round two kicked off to get desperate for a player they had rated as a first-rounder. But then the Rams really liked tackle Rodger Saffold of Indiana, and never really got much action on the pick because there wasn't a player teams felt they had to have. This year, I think that changes. New England has the 33rd pick (by way of the Panthers, who dealt it to acquire a Patriots' third-rounder last year so they could take Armanti Edwards). The way I read the draft right now, there could be as many as eight teams among the first 17 picks in the second round that will want a quarterback, and perhaps only three QBs left worth taking high in the second round. Overall pick Team Prospects 34 Buffalo Unlikely to pick QB here, but you never know. 35 Cincinnati They know Palmer's out. Need a QB. 38 Arizona Might be waiting for Marc Bulger. Too risky? 39 Tennessee Desperate for good-guy QB. 41 Washington Could be willing to roll dice with Grossman. 43 Minnesota Can't believe they won't draft QB high. 45 San Francisco Harbaugh dreams of Andy Dalton, I think. 49 Jacksonville Time for some competition for Garrard. The Patriots couldn't be in a better spot. There could be three second-round-caliber passers (Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick) available after day one, and a fourth if Ryan Mallett gets past Seattle at 25. Of course, teams could also trade up to the late first round too. New England is in prime position there, also, with the 28th overall choice. On the universal draft-pick trade chart, invented a generation ago to standardize what value teams assign to each pick (though it's not gospel; some teams barely glance at it), the 28th pick is worth 660 points, and the 33rd pick worth 580 points. Teams trading for a pick in the following draft usually ascribe a choice one round higher to be fair. (Thus the Patriots' deal of a 2010 third-rounder for Carolina's second-rounder in 2011. Sometimes teams get lucky; New England moved up, as it turns out, 57 slots by making that deal a year ago.) But the Patriots could successfully argue -- I believe -- that the 33rd pick is worth more than a 2012 first-rounder this year. The primary reason is they could have more than one bidder for the pick, because of the paucity of quarterback prospects and the need of more than one team by the time round one ends. Let's say the 49ers are desperate to move up for Dalton. The 49ers, picking 45th, might have to slip the Patriots extra value beyond what the trade chart says to move those 12 slots. Perhaps a first-rounder in 2012 and, say, a third- or fourth- this year. If they don't do it, some other team might. Actually, starting around pick 26 in the first round, several teams are in good position to trade down. Baltimore (26th overall) may be willing to deal down for an extra three, and the Ravens could still take a cornerback with low-first, high-second-round value. Chicago (29) and the Jets (30) might be willing to trade down too. Whatever happens, I think there will be a quarterback market at the end of day one, and I think the Patriots are positioned perfectly to take advantage of it. Will there ever be a year New England's won't be in position to control a draft? It's amazing the job Bill Belichick's done in consistently giving the Pats an edge there.
