Premise 1: By anti Von Miller I'm not saying he'll never amount to anything in the NFL (ala Gholston). I just think all this top 10 pick talk I'm hearing of is absurd. The right place were he should be picked is around the 20-30 pick. Here are my reasons: 1. He is totally a one trick pony. I get it, he's insanely fast and agile for a guy his size but he only has 2 moves! Move #1: Rush from the outside relying on speed. Move #2: He'll fake two steps going to the outside and turn back on the inside. Guess what, that alone won't get it done in the NFL. I mean, of course sometimes it will get it done but not on a consistent basis. 2. He has no power when linemen make contact with him. Every time he can't beat an OT with speed and the guy gets a hand on him it's game over. Well guess what, in the NFL lineman will get their hands on you more often than not and you need the power and strength to push them around. 2a. Talking about contact... how often does he use his hands to disingage from the OL? Use your hands dude, they're not just there for decoration. 3. He is out of position A LOT. Although I admit this season he has gotten better with it how many times does he put himself out of a play by getting undisciplined (only thinking about getting the sack)? 4. Talking about responsabilities, what was the only thing he was asked to do during his college career? sack the QB. Before he becomes a complete OLB (playing the run & dropping in coverage) he has a lot of work to do. And while I see him becoming competent in pass pro (he is very agile after all so the tools are there) I have a very hard time thinking he'll be good vs the run (the power argument in point 2). That said there certainly are some upsides to his game. 1. Yeah he was only asked to do one thing... but that thing is pretty important in today's NFL! This is why although I think he'll never be a complete player he will become a good pass rusher and would do well for teams that use creative blitz packages (like us). 2. His speed and athleticism are really impressive. But those are just raw skills... many players come into the league with impressive raw skills, he needs to work hard to translate those skills into production (in the NFL). While the Gholston comparisons are a bit unfair (Miller is much more agile), may I remind you that one of the fastest OLBs in the game (looking at combine numbers) was our very own Bryan Thomas... (before anyone asks I'm not saying he is similar to Thomas, just that being explosive at the combine isn't the only thing that counts). To sum it all up I think Miller certainly has potential to do things in this league. He needs to work hard to diverisfy his game/pass rush (and I have no idea about his work ethic but he doesn't seem like a bad guy) and rely less on his god given skills. Those skills bring a lot more production in the college game than in the NFL. While I expect him to produce some sacks in this league (especially if used in the right way) I'll be totally shocked if he becomes the next very good/elite OLB like many draft experts are saying he'll become. If anyone agrees with the above analysis welcome to the club... otherwise I respect your opinion but I'm not buying it. PS teams he got a sack against and OL drafted/good (please feel free to add): 2009 New Mexico 3 - C, Cook rd 7 Utah State 3 - /// UAB 2 - /// Arkansas 1 - G, Petrus rd 5 + T, Love (struggles with speed rushers per NFL.com) Oklahoma State 0 - T, OKUNG rd 1 Kansas State 1 - /// Texas Tech 2 - /// Iowa State 1 - /// Colorado 2 - T, Solder (in his second year as a LT) Texas 1 - /// 2010 Arkansas 1 - T, Love (struggles with speed rushers per NFL.com) Missouri 1 - T, Fisher (2012 prospect) Texas Tech 1 Oklahoma 2 Baylor 1 - G, Watkins Nebraska 2 Texas 2 LSU 1 - T, Barksdale
1) Nobody wants to read a giant block of shit if it's solely focused on a player who has no impact on the Jets' board. 2) When you've already closed yourself off to any real discussion or possibility to influence your position, why would anybody choose to discuss negatives? You're basically stating this just so you'll finally have a thread in which more than half of the people--really everyone--who post in it agree with you. It's self gratifying, but it's mostly just sad.
I made this thread because I'm sure there are other TGGers that don't buy into the Miller hype and this is a place to say it openly and state why. Since just stating it without explaining why seemed stupid I also gave my reasons... if you don't want to read it I guess I'll be able to live with it (although I am crying a little inside -.-"). PS Oh and also, while my opinion is pretty definitive many others might still be undecided so it's not like a Von Miller debate is useless.
Nope... pretty much everyone says Jake Locker couldn't hit an obese woman with a 5 feet hot dog. Instead there are sooooo many people jumping on the Von Miller bandwagon! Every year there are some guys, taken in rd 1, who are projected to become good pass rushers and never reach the production expected from them: 2008: #6 Gholston #8 Harvey 2009: #11 Maybin #16 English #18 Ayers 2010: Jury is still out but Morgan and Hughes don't seem like extremely exciting players. All I'm saying is I think Miller will not produce at the level he's expected to produce by many draft experts.
You say he should be 20 - 30 pick. I don't know, but the way you described the guy sounds a lot worse than that. I mean... the prospects we're looking at to be there at #30 are the way you described VMiller?
I'm trying to point out all the possible bad stuff about him. I think he would make sense later in rd 1 because the emphasis on the pass game in today's NFL means putting pressure on the QB has become of the utmost importance. In my opinion you'll have to create sack opportunities for Von Miller, he's not going to go out and do it all by himself. But if you do create those opportunities then there's a good chance he'll get to the QB. Is that worth a late 1s rd pick? To me yes... but I'd never draft with the first 20 picks of the draft a guy whose only contribution might be rushing the passer... and who will need work/schemes to do it succesfully at the NFL level. I'm sure it'd be possible to find players that overall contribute much more. Also keep in mind that a role player on a good team will produce, a role player on a D that struggles won't. And teams with good Ds don't pick in the top 20 often. Miller's best scenario is to end on a team that has a consistent DL... otherwise he's screwed. Anyways don't take my opinion for granted... go look at all the tape you can find and make up your own opinion... PS In case I haven't made myself clear, in his rookie season Miller will only get to the QB when: A) He'll beat the LT on the outside with pure speed. B) His team-mates will create a free lane for him to get to the QB. Both things aren't that easy at the NFL level.
These quotes don't make too much sense together, it's a pretty bold statement to say "I would never draft a pass rushing specialist with the first 20 picks of the draft"
Fixed my post. I didn't express myself well... usually by passrushing specialist you mean a guy that's good at rushing the QB and average at everything else. I think Miller will eventually (if he learns just not to rely on speed) become a good pass rusher but will never have a complete game. Also he'll need schemes that give him a free lane to the QB or his only sacks will come when he occasionaly beats the LT to the outside (and it will happen, just not as often as in college).
Not exactly going out on a limb with this one given his status before the Senior Bowl. So, basically, based on his production over the course of his college career before Senior Bowl week, you would rank him exactly where people ranked him based on his production over the course of his college career before Senior Bowl week. Groundbreaking stuff, really.
Sorry for going over this again... would you be happy with the jets getting a guy like this at #30? the players people are talking about being available at #30 are in this level (Ayers, Sheard, Reed, Kerrigan, Wilkerson...)? Or you would consider them better than Von Miller (meaning that Von Miller should be more of a second rounder than a 20-30 pick? I said it in another thread, I'm new to the draft-prospects-evaluation thingy, so I value a lot the opinion of those posting in this board, but your description of a player that you consider worthy of a 20-30 pick kind of dissappoints me... I would expect something better in the first round.
No problem Let's put it in a different perspective. With his speed and agility IF you scheme up in a way he can get to the QB somewhat easily he can produce. The problem is not many teams have the ability (both in terms of players and coaches) to do that. If you put Miller on a team like the Steelers, the Jets or the Packers I'm sure he would produce A LOT more than on teams that have problems imposing their style of D. Take players like Suh or Matthews... if you take those guys and put them on the crappiest D of this league they'd still produce very good numbers. In my opinion a guy like Miller will only be able to make the most of opportunities his team-mates give him (well, except the occasional times where he'll actually beat the LT on the outside, shit happens)... but if his team-mates don't free up room for Miller to go through he's not doing shit. I would never ever ever want Miller to be a starting OLB on my team but I'd very much like to have him in those exotic formations with 3 OLBs on the field to put pressure on the QB. Would I spend a high 1st rd draft pick for a player that's so one-dimensional? No! But considering the importance of the passing game and the fact my team already has a solid foundation in place I would take a shot on him as a role player late in rd 1.
Morgan showed a great deal of promise as a pass rusher before he went down with injury. He was getting consistently getting pressure on QBs. Hughes had moments of solid play, however he was stuck behind Mathis and Freeney. As it is he wasn't getting a lot of playing time as the rotational end.
Morgan was on injured reserve with a torn ACL. Hughes I see, but I think Morgan is going to develop into an all pro defensive end I can see why you dont like Von Miller, but I think with Miller people see him as a better athlete than they do with Rob Quinn. Personally, I would take Quinn over Miller
I'd take Quinn over him too, even though I have Miller rated higher only because he played last year. But I think Quinn can be more dynamic.
Yeah you and I are on the same page. Quinn looked pretty good at the combine so at least he kept in shape when he wasnt playing
Haven't you been listening to the gospel of Revis Christ? He's basically been saying you can workout all you want, but nothing can prepare you for contact. I'm sure Revis worked his ass off during the holdout, but missing practice and actual football led to his injury. I think Robert Quinn is a top five prospect, but all of those players that sat out the year for UNC worry me a little bit.
