At this point, we have no idea what Sanders will cost, but assuming it's the vet minimum is silly if other teams are looking at it like the posters on this board: "his injuries lately are the fluke variety", "when healthy, he's still a dominant player". I doubt teams, the Jets included, are looking at it that way. He's had 3 visits, no offers that we're aware of, and the deadline is in 2 days. This is not medium risk; not if you're considering it high reward. The high reward would be "close to what he was 4 years ago." If that's what you're looking for, it's incredibly high risk. From a monetary standpoint, we have no idea what it is, but if the team looks for that out of him and ends up with the same play as last year, it's much bigger than simply medium risk. Yes, we need to bring in (or back) two safeties. If Sanders comes in, we need to bring in (or back) three safeties, counting him. In other words, he doesn't exactly provide the big cap savings that everyone is banking on. The difference between signing Landry or signing Sanders and, say, Pool, would probably come down to about $2 million at worst. It also means we don't necessarily have to address safety in the draft, which we most certainly would if we were going with Pool and Sanders. Well, if we're talking about a minimal contract and the old Bob Sanders, of course it's a no brainer. It's silly to consider that, though, given the circumstances. I have yet to hear a single good argument as to why anyone expects him to be the same player. He's had 2 years off from the game and a nagging knee injury, in addition to the "fluke" bicep injuries.
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Ignatius you make a lot of good points but I think your going too far in the opposite direction. Unless your a doctor who has evaluated his health at this point or a coach/gm/talent evaluator who has seen him work out recently you can't evaluate his chances of getting back to 2007 form. None of us can so we have to assume the jets are doing their due diligence and if they think there is a fair chance for him to return to form then they will find out the money he wants and see if it fits in their plans. If they were to sign him I would be excited because that would tell me the jets think he can still play. Then we can all keep our fingers crossed that this is the year he stays healthy.
I can say it's unlikely based on his history and time off the field. Not even the Jets staff can evaluate whether he'll play up to his form of 2007. They can evaluate his physical health in general, but not in actual contact situations, and they certainly can't get a sense of whether he can still play. It's a risk, and that "fair chance" is still a huge unknown, especially considering some of the opinions on here. The only way I'm ok with this deal is if he signs for right around $1 million and Landry's contract goes over $5 million per. Otherwise, it feels like the wrong move. EDIT: I also find it telling that the team whose doctors have been evaluating him constantly for the past several years has signaled no intent to try to sign him to a friendlier contract after cutting him. If he were that cheap, and still looked like he might come back, the Colts would be making SOME attempt to bring him back under a better number.
Sure we don't know how his health is without a physical, etc., but we can make reasoned guesses can't we? (1) Can anyone think of a player who played so little over three years and then came back strong at age 30? (2) The Colts cut him. Can we think of a player who missed most of three years, got cut by the team that knew him past, and came back strong elswhere?
The colts most likely cut him because they were tired of seeing him on the IR every year. Plus I don't know the answer to this but was he due any bonuses before the end of the league year? There's only so much one team can take (see Jenkins) of the same player going down. Just because one team cut him doesn't mean he's finished it just means they had reached their limit of giving out chances. Listen obviously you guys are right that all signs point to the fact that he's more likely to be injured again than come back at a high level. I look at it as much less of a riskthan you guys do. There has to be a contract based on incentives that will cost us little to nothing cap wise unless he performs. And let's not forget we don't have a dead roster spot from Jenkins and gholston this year. That's two players that contributed little over the past two seasons on our roster. I mentioned earlier you can't take on too many injury risk players like this but you can fit one on your roster and still have enough depth. Any good team can. Also I'm not saying this guy will be here for the next three years. I'm just looking for the one healthy year he's going to put together sooner or later. Look at Jenkins. In Carolina in 04 and 05 Jenkins played 5 games total. Then he had three years at full health playing at a high level before the knee issues again. Granted he was younger but just saying you never know.
There's no way this would be anything other than a very low salary with lots of incentives. I don't see the harm in it at all. Guys like Landry and the other guys at the top of the free agent list are going to cost much more. I'd much rather roll the dice on a low-risk (money wise), high reward player like Sanders than sign a safety for 4 million dollars or more a season. That 2-3 million dollar difference could be the difference between keeping Braylon Edwards and/or Cromartie or not. I'd much rather have a greater chance to bring back both Braylon and Cro with Sanders (and Smith or Pool and Lowery as the backups to fall back on) than be guaranteed we will lose one major FA and have Dawan Landry.. who is not that great btw.
I say give him a chance, he has something to prove. Give him an incentive based contract, and hope for the best
It's not even close to a given that he's going to put together another healthy year. He plays beyond his size, and it's that style of play that got him hurt repeatedly. It's also that style of play that put him on top of the league in 2007. It cuts both ways, and for 3 straight years, it's gotten him on the IR list. It's tough to see him continuing to play that physical style of football that made him DPOY and suddenly staying healthy. The contract issue is moot if he gets hurt because going on IR takes him off the books if he doesn't receive any kind of bonus. It's more the opportunity cost heading into the season. Like I said, I'd much rather spend an extra $2 million and bring in Dawan Landry than roll with Sanders and Pool. As far as Jenkins, there are reports the team wants to bring him back more cheaply. Again, why aren't the Colts doing the same with Sanders if they thought there was even an average chance of him coming back at the same level?
lets just jerk off to ourselves, and pretend he stays healthy for the entire season. oh, and Asomugha. heh. ****holy shiiiiiiiiiiit*****
One thing about incentives-if you pay them they count against the cap eventually. You could push some of them to the 2012 cap but you can't avoid the cap hit forever.
Yeah but if he plays well and earns those bonuses by staying healthy.. then I doubt Tanny would mind finding a way to fit it into the cap. I can't imagine him getting a contract worth anything more than like 1.5 million in salary, with the ability to earn up to 3.5 million more or so in bonuses and incentives for a total of 5 million. If he plays up to his former standards, then that's a steal. If he gets hurt and does nothing.. no harm really done. If it's somewhere in the middle.. then its a decent deal.
Dawan Landry is very underrated. Again, though, I don't want to hear anyone bitch about safety play if we sign Sanders and he gets hurt again in the first or second game. As far as all this talk of his contract being incentive laden, if the cap is as big a concern as we expect, why would we want to load up a guy's contract with NLTBE incentives? I can't think of a single incentive that would be considered LTBE for Sanders given his 'season' last year. So if we load him up and he reaches those incentives, all that money gets shifted to the 2012 cap. Given that we're looking to sign our FAs to multi-year contracts, their 2nd year number will inevitably be higher than the first. I'd rather put a little extra into this year when we have more room for it than push empty money onto the 2012 cap when we don't.
I doubt you even need to offer him an incentive laden contract. He hasn't played in three years-not many teams will want him.
Any "bonuses" would count against this year's cap. Can we just drop the "if he plays up to his former standards" line already? His 'standards' came from 1 season and 1 postseason. That's it. We're talking about a fairy tale here that he's going to get back to that. "Somewhere in the middle" means we've spent $3 million on him and Pool (because we'd have to have a somewhat competent backup), and have some money hit the cap next year after he likely walks from whatever incentives he's reached.
