Estimating the Value of Braylon Edwards

And he wasn't consistently accurate with those attempts as evidenced by his completion percentage.

Edwards is not elite but he's on the very next level. He's the perfect type of receiver for Sanchez and this offense. Nacho tends to shoot high fairly often and Braylons height and vertical tend to make up for that. His run blocking is icing on the cake.

 

seems like every other year some team drafts a receiver in the 7th round that rocks the nfl

 

And that's why I don't want him making 9 mil a year.

If he comes back at 6.2-7mil he's welcome. If a team wants to give him over 7 let them have him, because I don't think that team is going to have a top QB to throw to him.

Only the Bears are a team with a good QB that needs a WR like Edwards. The rest have shitty QBs.

 

And with Sanchez's breakout year looming, I can see those weapons having big years.

Next year the offense should do better. They fucking better improve, especially in the red zone.

 

I think the $7MM/year range is good. Look at Boldin from last year:
3/5/2010: Signed a four-year, $28 million contract. The deal includes $10 million guaranteed.
2011-2013: $6 million,
2014: Free Agent

 

AJ Green may fall to the 7th round

 

That's a win for the Jets. Boldin's had more production, so the argument could be made that Edwards should see just a little over 6M for this years escalation in salary.

That's why I like the inbetween of 6.2 and 6.9 -- 6.5M a year. I wonder if another sticking point will be a 4 or 5 year deal. He's 28. 32 years of age is a nice time to say thank you and farewell.

 

The pending DUI while on probation will surely knock down the price too.

 

Good post. I totally agree. I also agree with the person who said the offense was better and less complicated before Holmes' suspension was up.

Edwards has been huge for this team. He wants to be here. He has been fiery, played hard, and wanted to be aggressive and finish teams off. Sanchez IS wild high frequently and Edwards is the perfect antidote for that. Edwards could be a great Red Zone target if that idiot Schottenheimer chose to use him as one. I think he brings much more to the table for the Jets than Holmes, and is less likely to get in serious trouble. He has done everything the Jets have asked and has worked hard. He was even willing to play STs as a kick blocker vs other teams' FG attempts. He deserves to be re-signed and remain a Jet. After Harris, I hope he is the Jets' top priority. Let Holmes go elsewhere. With BE, Cotchery, Keller, and either Brad Smith or a FA or draft pick, plus LT and Conner, Sanchez will have plenty of weapons to work with.

 

If we can keep BE for those numbers, great, but I disagree with the comparison with Boldin. I don't think one can fairly or accurately compare BE's and Boldin's numbers. BE played for a crappy Cleveland team with crappy, wildly inaccurate and inconsistent QBs. He was unhappy there. Bolding played with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald as the #2 and saw a lot of single coverage due to Fitzgerald's drawing double teams. Warner was accurate and an excellent QB.

Even here in NY, Edwards has had to contend with a rookie QB with accuracy issues and an OC who is all over the map. Then in his first full season here, they bring in Holmes and often make BE an afterthought.

I think Holmes will ask for and get more money than Edwards. Let that be with another team. Keep BE here on the Jets.

 

They aren't even the same type of receiver.

You have to take the production for what its worth. Edwards has the DUI on his track record, and has produced equal to that of a good WR with the potential to be great.

And Holmes is a rare type of gamebreaker that loves pressure situations. You don't let that go. I don't see the Jets letting that type of player go. Holmes is a fantastic teammate, something the Jets didn't expect when they got him. The CS loves Holmes, and if they do the numbers right, they can keep both WRs.

 

Edwards isn't going to be viewed the same way as Boldin, and he isn't going to get the same kind of contract. I said in another thread that, since he's the only major FA who can be dealt with now due to the 30% rule, and given that we've heard the FO comment on each of the other three, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see Edwards extended before March 4th at about $6 million per.

 

The only problem is, Holmes likely sees $8 million on average. How many teams actually have $14 million a year on the cap spread across two receivers?

 

Although overall I like Holmes more than Edwards I think Edwards fits this team better, is not at risk of missing a whole season in case he gets caught drinking, and will ultimately ask for less money...

Between having Edwards for 6 and Holmes for 8 mill $$$ I choose Edwards.

 

I hadn't heard that about Holmes being a good teammate. Thanks for that tidbit. It's nice to knowand makes me feel a little better about him. I agree that Holmes is a gamebreaker and he seems to thrive on pressure situations, but unless I'm mistaken, he also had ALL of his drops in the playoffs or at the end of the season. One of those could have and probably would have caused the Jets to lose before they reached the AFC Championship game if it wasn't for a stupid running into the punter penalty. So he isn't always money in those pressure situations.

Having both Holmes and Edwards would be a luxury that I don't think the Jets can afford. If they can only keep one, I think the team would be better off keeping Edwards for the reasons I've already mentioned. He contributes in other ways, is a bigger target, and has the potential to be the big play guy that Holmes. They could then use the difference between his salary and what Holmes will demand (and probably get), to apply towards signing a Kamerion Wimbley, upgrading the safety position with a FA, towards re-signing Cro, or to sign a lower-tier vet FA CB as insurance if they can't re-sign Cro and Wilson doesn't pan out.

 

I look to Tanny, because he and maybe 6 other GMs have the ability to pull this off. And the cap will be raised for this season. The Jets have guys they can cut without getting hit with dead money (Hartsock comes to mind, I'm not paying a blocking #2 TE 2.2M. I'm not Al Davis). BT, JT, Jenkins, Sanchez's insane number, etc. I think they can end up saving 8-10M before they begin resigning FAs.

I think the challenge is going to be resigning these two to continue Sanchez's development because nothing is more important, and then filling in everything else on defense and depth. They did it last year, I can see them doing it this year once more.... The more I think of it all, the more I smirk and think "this team needs more draft picks." Its catching up with them. Having the default 7 or more would really help things.

 

They can save more than 8 to 10 million if you count Hartsock. I'm not at home, but I believe I had us down from 117 to 107 with likely cuts and wasn't including Hartsock.

Not sure what you mean by "they did it last year". Last year, our fill in starters came dirt cheap as far as cap numbers. We'll have a tougher time getting depth this year. I've said all along I wanted both receivers back, but knowing the holes we're facing, I wonder whether Tannenbaum balks at committing that much money to the receivers...especially if they're really looking to further inflate the LB corps with cash.

Tanny can only do so much, and even cap friendly structuring has a bite at some point. All we can do is hope he has the right priorities and that the cap is friendly. If they make 2012 an 18 game season, it'll be interesting to see how they determine the next two caps and the transitionary contracts.

 

107 is damn good. It goes back up to 117 with Edwards/Holmes cap numbers. I think the Jets will have another 20M to work with after that, and that should be enough to sign depth players and fill the holes. I don't know what they're going to do with Harris. Tag, long term deal, I'm not sure.

That's what I mean, the veteran contracts were cheap and they did an adequate job in finding those players. I think they can do it again. You hit the largest conundrum on the head - the LBs vs WRs. There is already a lot of money tied up in the LBs, and the production does not match the dollars. However, the production from the WRs will match the dollars. That's a point that's probably been made in the personnel meetings. What that means is that the LBs need to get better, and it starts with finding a pass rusher, replacing BT, finding JT's 3rd down replacement and getting Pace healthy. Scott's cap number goes down each year, which is good news. This makes the Harris situation really interesting. Being a GM must be aggravatingly awesome.

With the record number of players in FA this season, I can see plenty of depth players being found on the cheap floating around the FA pool.

18 game season, to me, is the death knell of all that is the current personnel formula. The cap will be much larger, because the pie will be larger and the roster number is going to increase. But to see careers end sooner, and finding the right depth because of the injuries that will pile up - its going to be a nightmare. I'll go as far as saying that there could be a player's strike if 18 games happen around 2016, because the injuries and shortened life spans just won't be worth it. The quality of the game will decrease, and the juggernaut that is the NFL will see its first dark period due to greed. But it seems inevitable due to the history of leagues. Everyone needs a dark age - maybe the NFL is approaching theirs.... fuck. I love this game too much, and I know my affection will be lessened due to the cunts who made the wrong decisions.

Of course that was entirely speculative... but then again, that's why we are here - to speculate about the game we love.